Member Info for iWantThatOne

Slightly off topic, I hear that people who start working at home almost always put on weight at first. In Silicon Valley they call it the Facebook 10 - the ten lbs you put on in the first month due to nibbling on biscuits etc. Be careful, people - discipline will be needed in the coming weeks!

Interesting segment on Politics Live (BBC) at lunchtime about how much electricity is used by us all using the internet - about 3% of global power usage apparently, approx. same as aviation. They argued it wasn't for us users to worry about so much as the data centres, who should all be thinking about being powered by renewable energy - and they went to one that was solar-driven. I know one company that's got a solution for that from mid-2022........

Agreed, Punter! That could be a whole load of new shares that wouldn’t need to be issued.

Haggis, I’m not sure why you think profit on the EC charger will be shared with MSP? We don’t know the details but I’d have thought it more likely that MSP will simply be paid for its part of the unit and AFC retains all the profit from the sale. On that basis (and 20% margin) we’d just need 10-20 of the 160kW units sold each year to cover the c£4m overheads. That alone would give the SP a boost, I think, as the company would have no need to raise cash for day to day costs. Of course they’d need working capital to pay for production of the units in the early years. The fact that NDAs and tailored solutions are involved suggests to me that these are quite substantial potential orders.

Scooby - profitability doesn’t remain elusive. They’re profitable.

Short term, the only effect on GAN will be if major sports events are called off or casinos close for a period. Beyond that, its business as usual. The market panic is crazy and - as you say StatsMan - indiscriminate. There are plenty of shares marked down to levels at which they will be bargains once the virus is contained. It's just a case of waiting till that point. In the meantime, folk trying to get out add to the downward price pressure.

Strong RNS today, I thought. NDA's in place for a variety of potential EV charger customers; sales expected this year (of course); stronger financial position; Alkamem opportunities being explored; electrodes continue to rack up the hours. Of course we all want to see the sales, but this RNS continues the style of recent ones - steady progress, doing all the right things.....I'm delighted the SP is holding up at the moment in this febrile atmosphere - the panic is over-done IMO.

I’m using 10% pa discount rate, which I think is already quite high. It’s instructive to look forward two or three years, when the unwinding of the discount rate will automatically see the NPV grow nicely let alone any LOM extension, Dugbe/CORA action etc.

With location data having reduced significantly in volume due to these evolving trends (68% reduction in background data after iOS13), it seems clear to me that what's left becomes even more important to verify, and that a service to achieve that becomes even more valuable.

Agree - I have FCF more like $60m after all those items. I think Mali Gov's 20% share is from post-tax income but stand to be corrected.

My ideal scenario is that HUM buys the license for Tekeledougou (8km from Yanfolila) once reserves are proved up a bit more there. Some $ms for that would be good value for HUM (which I hold) and extend its LOM, whilst the $ms would contribute nicely to the cost of the Sanankoro plant - possibly even covering the likely $8-10m share of the $22m capex that would otherwise require an issue of equity (the balance being debt). A win win that would see CORA’s NAV at many multiples of the current SP.

Andrew, thanks for your response, which confirms my thinking. MMP would be “gambling” on a higher POG for a significant number of years, and/or more underground reserves. Neither are certain and would represent a huge risk for them, IMHO. If it were XTR investors faced with this decision, would we go for it? Not me.

Dropinmonkey - I get 46p but let’s not quibble. I’m not quite sure how much to deduct for tax so happy to believe I may be a little out.

Andrew - I'm only just catching up with all the debate about MMP's possible buy-out of the FB HR concession. The 23% IS relevant here because MMP already has the rights to 77% of the net profits (at current POG), under the terms of the collaboration agreement. The only point in exercising its right to buy would be to take over XTR's 23% free carry. On all sensible assumptions, the discounted value of that 23% is less than $20m - or perhaps just about reaching low $20m's but only on very heroic assumptions about the continuity of the current POG and confidence about the AISCs. grades etc etc. I can't see why they would do this.

Agusta, thanks for the comment about NEL. I've just been looking at them and I agree - looks like a bigger version of ITM. I see they claim that "Nel Hydrogen is the recognized [global] industry leader of Alkaline and Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) water electrolysis". A possibility for AFC to work with them on the former, then?

First looked at the share price at 6pm tonight. Blimey. I passed the wife a bit of paper with our day's paper profits written on it and she nearly choked on her Rich Tea. I'm sure I'm not the only one here whose problem now is that AFC forms an indecent proportion of his or her or their portfolio. Still, a nice problem to have, eh? Can't wait to see what the rest of the week brings....

PIltick - close! It’s CORA Gold. You’ll probably know that the CORA CEO was with HUM until recently.

Exciting to see the SP going in the right direction. I’ve been doing my bit by exchanging emails with the CEO of a gold exploring company in Mali. Only 3MW power requirement but he seemed really interested in AFC’s solution. It’ll be several years before they build the plant so I’ll keep hassling!

Yes that looks really good business - noting that at the mo £3m represents only about 3% of annual revenues. But if it scales up nicely - great stuff.

Just started looking properly at TLY. Whilst the mcap is £28m, £8m of that is cash, so the EV is only £20m. EBITDA (pre-exceptionals) for the full year might be £4m, if just a doubling of H1. However revenue should be be up by £10m compared to H1 as we'll see an extra quarter from Greencare (compared to just 3 months contribution from them in H1 results). So we could be seeing an EV/EBITDA ratio of closer to 4 than 5. Depends a lot on the margin and what full year admin expenses we'll see after Greencare, of course. Together with the "£250m of booked contracts" through to mid-2021 quoted at the time of the Greencare acquisition, this all seems good value to me.