Member Info for iWantThatOne

So we can estimate the benefits of each new state that's added, do we know what revenue GAN gets from its partnership with FD? From GAN's accounts for H1 2019, US sportbook revenue (which was just NJ FD I think?) was £0.7m. FD's revenue from NJ taken as Meadowland's revenue was $58m - hence GAN could be earning c1.5% of FD's revenue, allowing for the FX rate? On that basis, GAN NJ FD is looking at c£1.8m for H2 based on reported revenue to date, hence c£2.5m for the full year. Sound reasonable, possibly, as a stab at what each state might earn if NJ-sized? PA is running somewhat behind of course. Based on Valley Forge's revenues I estimate c£0.5m to GAN there for H2. Happy to be challenged on all this!

I’m HOPING that the results of the exploration re-starting in Q1 will be more than just 1 or 1and a bit extra years of mine life - a revolving 5 year LOM will produce the goods eventually but we’ll all be a lot closer to our graves by the time that would happen. At least 2-3 years addition plus a clear way forward for Dugbe has got to be the minimum delivery for the first half of next year.

Perhaps IIs and some others will wait to see full details of the revised Mine Plan before adding? Also it’s clear that there are more resources to be converted - more drilling starting in Q1, and underground (which has been flagged before by Dan) is additional. I’d prefer all this to come in substantial chunks rather than in dribs and drabs though, to help drive up the value. It’s still only a five year LOM.

130k ozs p.a. for 5 years at POG $1400, AISC $850 gives $311m of EBITDA, or c70p per share (undiscounted and pre-tax, and ignoring current net debt), from some rough calcs.

At last! Additional resources announced. So now we have a five year plan consisting of 675k open pit reserves, or 130k pa for 2020-24, plus Nov-Dec 2019 production. (That's my take, but mine plan to come in early 2020).

GS, useful summary. You could also have mentioned that XLM ran the tender to buy back shares at 80p (claiming it was “substantially undervalued compared to peers”) immediately before a profits earning in the summer saying it was now experiencing “headwinds”. Many expected a further profits warning but nothing so far. The company just seems to lurch from c*ck-up to c*ck-up. Until I know the bottom has been reached I’m not adding any more. The US part of the business is in its infancy and I doubt will contribute meaningfully for a while but we’ll see. A lot of GAN shareholders (and I’m also one) really object to claims that XLM is in the same space. The former is about B2B technology platforms, the latter performance marketing, so not similar - big of course both potentially benefit from the explosive growth in US sports betting.

It really p*sses me off when the price is dropped so much to fill a large order. The MMs don’t have to fill it in that way, there’s been 12m shares traded today so enough liquidity. A vote of confidence anyway. Re the presentation, looking on the bright side, AB has been so busy speaking to prospective customers that he hasn’t had time to sign it off (maybe!). We don’t need more news, we just need people to keep buying, slowly but surely. We know the SP has touched twice this level recently so there’s plenty of scope for new buyers. Keep the faith, everyone.

The quantity and quality of research on the board in the last few days is exceptional, keep it up folks! On Friday the AFC management team said several times that the “people out there” will think of numerous ways of using the technology and they are ready and willing to supply them as necessary. I’m sure we’ll see RNS in the next few years that we simply can’t imagine right now.

TD, I think your calcs are a little bit wonky. You've taken revenue and put that into your 15 PE ratio, I think. If instead you take the expected net income in 2022 of $4.3m (about 1.1c per share at that point) then the share price would be 16.5c - or about 9p. Still a three bagger from here with further potential upside.

Yes the equipment can certainly be leased. There was brief mention of funders who could be lined up to lend the required amounts to customers but no names were mentioned.

Balman, your questions weren't really addressed on the day. Jim Gibson said that the bottled hydrogen in the cage next to the EV charger held enough for about one month. And it's not only the feedstock that would need attention, it was also stated that not every charger will be in a location where the waste H2O can be simply emptied straight onto the ground, and would need to be disposed of somehow. I'd like to know how AFC plan to deal with these kind of issues, especially where the chargers are spread around the country. But one for the future - a nice problem to have if we have systems stretching from Aberdeen to Zennor!

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet, I think....AB was asked about the sales and marketing team. This is essentially just two people, the ex-senior Caterpillar (Aggreko?) guys mentioned in an RNS some while ago. AB said he could do with plenty more to cope with the enquiries coming in. He'd like to increase the team size but they are constrained by cash and have clearly taken the decision to live with just those two right now. On the one hand it's good to see fiscal prudence but I can't help thinking this is one area where a little extra bunce would be very beneficial.

13thmonkey, great spot. Until today I thought AFC’s charger might have limited scope if it was focusing solely on locations where connection to the current grid was difficult. It’s clear now that extending the grid has such issues that AFC’s solution can have a much broader reach.

Several of us spoke to the CFO about the up-front costs of manufacture. He said a significant proportion of the cost would be cash in advance.

Also Alkamem is already in the market. On the back of AFC's RNS, several companies requested samples and have been sold some. If they like what they see and it suits their applications it's hoped they'll come back for "proper" orders. This is very much a soft launch, then - AFC don't know the customers for Alkamem nor the applications or systems they'll use it in. I think word will spread and demand grow slowly by osmosis. AB couldn't stop smiling at the price he thinks he can sell it for. Very chunky margins, methinks.

Excellent meeting today, great to see some LSE'ers , shame I missed some others by the look of it. Taking orders now for delivery June next year, so yes - commercially ready. Price for charging the cars deemed acceptable by potential customers so far. The capital cost of the chargers was quite significant - £5-£10k per kW, so your basic 20kW container with 2+ charging points would cost £100-200k. Extrapolating, just 5MW of supply would produce revenue of £25-50m, the margin from which would surely cover AFC's overheads and move them into cash profits. What was striking is how the grid is already maxing out and the cost of AFC's solution is often going to be more cost-effective than the additional infrastructure work to enable grid-based chargers. Also a big advantage is its mobile nature - they talked about how a local council could move the first system(s) from place to place to establish the optimum positioning. Many site-owners won't risk making very costly infrastructure changes in case the demand doesn't emerge as expected, while with AFC you just move the container. I think this will go very well indeed.

Great to see the CON parliamentary candidate at the launch today!

Bmac, come on old son, read up on the old RNS's now, please. It has never been AFC's intention to make the EV charger price-competitive with chargers on the grid - they've stated that publicly several times. It will be used where access to the grid is not possible, or difficult, or the necessary infrastructure changes (cabling etc) would be messy or prohibitive. It's not a case, as you seem to think, of AFC now casting around trying to find a market where its charger can thrive.

Congrats AFC, product launch after 12 hard years. We’ll be able to quiz them about the day when we convene tomorrow. Just the warranty now to make my year.

And two very strong NEDs join the Board! I see Frank Bury has been an investor in Bango - good to see.