Member Info for iWantThatOne

More on where KaMei seems to have been coming from: Daulton Capital Corporation, a Nevada Corporation, changed its name in May 2012 to Celframe ARX Resources - "Celframe" being one of the businesses that made the fortune of Arun Purdur, an Asian entrepreneur. However he quickly exited, as in October 2012 the name changed once again to ARX Gold Corp - in fact this was when it got involved in a project in Australia called the ARX Springs Gold project, though I can't find any evidence of this going anywhere. The SEC suspended trading in 2013 for some irregularities, and then in 2018 revoked ARX Gold Corp's registration as it hadn't made the necessary filings since 2013. There was a BVI listing in there somewhere too. I sincerely hope our ARX is a completely different entity, and I apologise in advance if this is all BS!

Daz, to be fair they seemed to be working right to the wire to get the chargers ready for the demos mid-December. The guy from the battery company told me he’d been working till 2am. That doesn’t prevent AFC whipping potential customers into a frenzy beforehand but realistically who would place an order for a high-value product immediately when they hadn’t seen it until mid-December? Personally I think it’ll be some months before we get significant orders, but when they do come they’ll soon mount up.

I got a response from Ray on some queries I had. The reduction in average EUS fee is simply due to the likes of Amazon physical goods doing well, whilst newer/smaller merchants on higher fees cumulatively aren’t preventing this trend. He agreed it’s hard to predict how this average fee will move - Progressive have clearly had to form their own view for their forecasts. In terms of data, yes H2 was slightly behind H1 but both halves had some lumpier contracts (and we know two moved into 2020) - that’s just the nature of things whilst still embryonic. I noticed that they replaced the word “doubling” with “exponential” growth - don’t read anything into it, the Americans seem to prefer the latter - and of course doubling is itself a form of exponential growth. Finally he gave an example of one merchant who, alone, could generate many times the current EUS if it could be convinced of the benefits of monetization of its data. Overall I’m convinced BGO will continue to grow solidly for years, albeit perhaps not at the faster rate I’d hoped a year ago before I realized how the EUS fee would reduce.

Won’t be debt free this year but will be net cash positive. Dan does seem obsessed with getting to that point, but why? Surely plenty of companies have debt whilst at the same time pursuing other opportunities or paying divis.

I’m more bullish than most here on Dugbe but even I feel it’s too much for HUM alone. I’d have thought 40/60 equity /debt is more realistic but would still be affordable, but HUM would again be a single mine, high risk play. This way Dugbe becomes the second mine and provides diversification and reduces risk. Retaining an equity stake gives exposure to the mine as it extends, which is better than an outright sale. No doubt there’d be a cash element up front too. Pluses and minuses but this approach gets value for Dugbe sooner than otherwise. Much, of course, depends on the terms of the deal plus the quality and experience of ARX.

Very happy today. Good quarter. At first I was surprised by the cash position - 18m at end-Q3 plus c20m this quarter less debt repayment 5m gives 33m - more than 20m higher than the final cash figure. They must have been waiting for cash to rise to a certain level before paying off much of the trade payables. Dugbe is the icing on the cake. Is the NPV figure quoted of 337m a clue to the price? Even one third of that would be 30c per share.

Hi Athansisus, yes that point was definitely mentioned by one of the directors, can't remember who - they said something about a housing development in Sweden that was using fuel cells for their energy requirements - was it both while the construction was going on but then afterwards too? I can't remember the detail, the discussion was around "people out there will create all sorts of unforseen demand for our products". AlkaMem came under the same heading. I don't know what modest changes would be needed to allow the H-Power products to be used for non-EV charger purposes - i guess that's the diesel genset work due this year.

I know ITM has a lot in the pipeline but product sales in the year to April 2019 of less than £5m? And a £475m company? Wow. There's definitely hope for us all here. Though I can't help feeling ITM is a little over-valued.....

Dropinmonkey, I tend to agree. A second mine is the priority. However if no suitable acquisition is available I do think it’s worth doing more exploration to extend the LOM as a defensive measure, to get better value if a hostile bid does come in. But the share buy-back option is more and more becoming the obvious thing to do. Dan (or Bert, can’t remember) did allude to “doing something” when HUM became net cash positive, but that sounded like a token special divi only. I can’t say I’m optimistic about any buy-back for quite some time.

I hold shares in the expectation a deal will be done and there will be a bounce when it goes through (based on my expectations of the amount of dilution etc). If I have bought now at slightly too high a price, if there is an open offer, well, I’m not overly concerned because I don’t want to miss the bounce.

I see that Progressive Equity Research's analysis today has the following for 2020: EUS £2.28bn, Revenue £11.4m, EBITDA £2.9m - the latter clearly being a lot lower than the £7m I was projecting. I think their figures look pessimistic and appear to be based on an average EUS fee of something like 0.45% (to give revenue of £10.3m) plus data revenue of £3.5m to make up the balance - or some slight variation of this. The assumed EUS fee does seem to have dropped quite a bit - it averaged approx 0.9% in '18, 0.68% in H1 '19 and something like 0.58% (depending on what the final EUS figure is ) in H2. The reason is understood but this is clearly a key figure on which it'd be good to have further management commentary. How much further can it fall? Is there a lower limit? Also on the data side, even without the deferred licence and supply deal, why hasn't H2 revenue beaten H1? I'll drop a line to the company but is anyone going to the strategy day?

The long analysis from Canoncan (and indeed Stockopedia) is a case of not seeing the wood for the trees. PBT this year was always going to be very small. EUS has doubled, as targeted. The average EUS fee has reduced very slightly due to the way fees reduce as third parties’ volumes through the platform increase (I had clarification from Ray on this by email several months ago). I do g think cash being reinvested in growth is large at all - admin costs remain stable. All expected. The big picture is that the company is now at the inflection point where profits will fly. Revenue next year will be close to double this year’s, and EBITDA of, say, £7m is 10p per share. Forget whether profit should have been 2.0m or 0.4m or -whatever. The company is doing exactly what it says it will do, and is delivering very well on its business plan - IMO. Today’s closing share price is a steal - again IMO.

I always thought 1.25bn EUS was a stretch. 1.1bn is fine. The average fee for payments holding up at about 0.65%. Looking forward, we should see additional payments revenue of c7m and gross data rev of maybe 5? So EBITDA of c9-10m, or a multiple of about 10 at current share price. Looks cheap to me!

2020 is our year, folks! Look forward to the sp being much higher this time next year. Merry Xmas.

Merry Xmas everyone (when did it become Happy Xmas? It was always Merry when I was young). But even more, a Happy New Year. 2020 could be an incredible year for LTHs.

Still in the exploration /discovery phase here Hazbeen, plenty of upside to go before the reality of detailed economic studies and building the plant.

Great to see Michigan finally signed off! It’ll be good to see confirmation that GAN will support FD there in the usual way, possibly as soon as Easter. Tennessee we already know about, with a mid-year launch for sports betting now likely, according to reports. And then maybe one more state to complete GAN’s 2020 quota?

Where did Jupiter get its shares from? Not from the open market, that’s for sure. A sale from another II?

The SP may not be responding to the LOM extension news but it's worth considering that by year end there should be about $26m cash with debt down to $39m or so - my estimates. By the end of next year, if all goes well there should be about $60m cash with debt down to $15m - again my estimates. The net cash alone at that point will be worth about 10p per share - with four strong years of production to follow. This company really does need to get its investors behind it, because at the moment they seem to be just walking away from what seems excellent value.

Disappointing to see the delivery date for this slip into January after being told it was on track.