Member Info for Ivyspivey

Although the trials themselves may not start until the turn of the year the deals will be signed way before then.
I would expect these will be £8-10m deals with 20-25% up front as soon as contract is signed and I expert these to start in September.
Don’t forget if you have 20 candidates all seeking a commercial advantage then human challenge studies are a way of increasing your chances and finishing faster.
You also have other potential sources such as therapeutic treatments based on Viral neutralising antibodies for eg.
Also there may well be Vax Approved but that is not end of story as the initial Vax are unlikely to be the best which imo are the ones to induce a much bigger T cell response hence triggering the memory cells.
So there will be a steady flow of interested parties.
As for any ethical issues AI do believe the importance if finding a safe and effective Vax ASAP will readily overcome any objections.

Bear,Imo the likelihood of there being an effective and available Vax by the end of this Year is virtually zero.
The boss of WHO talks about bringing the pandemic under control which necessitates a Vax within 2 years from start of outbreak so Q4/21 or Q1/22.
If there was a realistic chance of a Vax much earlier he would be much more bullish.

No 12 seems a high figure and I assume they must be US based to qualify so I really thought only a skeleton staff would be retained literally 2 or 3 at max.

Morning Moniman,
As others have pointed out the reasons why “ anyone” cannot just set up a Human Challenge Facility are many.
There will be a few “ specialist centres” and Oxford is likely to be one where you can effectively isolate an extremely small number and am talking about less than 5 patients maybe less.
These will be to allow individual testing against deadly virus’s or to isolate sufferers of new virus’s.
These could be in effect like quarantine medical facilities or units like Porton Down,Pirbright etc.
However if you want to run Human Challenge trials then ORPH are unique

Extra little bit

FRONTERA RESOURCES CORPORATION received a Paycheck Protection Loan of between 150,000 and 350,000 through Radius Bank, which was approved in April, 2020.

When accounting for 12 claimed employees and the PPP salary cap of $100k per employee, the actual maximum PPP received by this business is likely $250,0002.


Based on standard PPP eligibility rules, FRONTERA RESOURCES CORPORATION's total 2019 payroll expenses were between $720,000 and $1.2M+ in order to qualify for the PPP loan amount received. Based on their reported 12 jobs retained, this equals an estimated average yearly compensation between $60,000 and $100,000+ per employee1.

Thanks Looed

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiagMbaqq7rAhVmRRUIHWyzCbAQFjANegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.federalpay.org%2Fpaycheck-protection-program%2F584972-frontera-resources-corporation-houston-tx&usg=AOvVaw3GKUQBj6Wd3uYYYKT6MB7O

Evening Bunsie,
There are links between micro biomes and cancer immunotherapy so you may find any research useful.
Nice w/ end all

WTP Yes Peel still only one on bid at 7.3p.More foolish the seller taking such a low price and better off waiting imo.Cancelled trade from yesterday Of 43k.

Have sent you a DM on Twitter to establish contact.Let me know if you can access it

Cheers Kenco.Have responded

Knowlesi.You are absolutely correct that the odds or probabilities are important and that is part of how pharma works in its strategic review process.
They would draw up a list of ranked priorities based on the science,the regulatory route,the chance of success,the size of the market,competition,patient need and a host of other factors.
It seems clear to me that there is no specific process within SCLP and is common to a lot of small bio pharma where scientists often dictate the progress.
The TD article helps remind ourselves of the relative risks involved and hence that us what gives benchmarks to valuations.
I am sure plenty here will recall RGs comment about 90% of the actual value in SCLP a few years back was Immunobody and only 10% Moditope.
Resources should be allocated accordingly something which scientists ime are not usually best to decide upon.

Hi Kenco,
Nothing specific but I have spoken to a couple of local Vets to me who have no issues in recommending local breeders so not sure about your area.
Is there any chance we can take this off the board as I may be able to be more forthcoming.
Not sure if you are on Twitter and I can DM you for eg

Hi LL,
As SCLP pay Trinity Delta to produce this report then I would imagine that they will work closely together.
Yes all broker/ finance house reports should not be taken at face value as there may be other things at play but it is one of the very few “ independently validated” variations as co pared to anyone else’s predictions.
Personally I would then overlay a few observations for eg TD do say they have made a very conservative valuation and not included Avidmab and Covidity in the calculation.
So I would say you need to add those on and then you may judge that LDs expertise means that the risks have been overplayed and the DD done by Vulpes and Redmile again validates a higher valuation than what TD states.
On balance I would say the valuation of SCLP has some way to go abd if course the other way of valuing the likes of SCLP is by peer valuation but that really is very open to interpretation.
My main point was in response to your request on where you can obtain a balanced view of the risk/ reward here and I rate TD as a source far higher than any individual poster whether positive or negative.

LL of course it is as you say if you are acting on behalf of the client ie SCLP then I would suspect the y would have close discussions.How can you compare that opportunity with the once a year at an AGM and the odd e mail.
JG from Calculus was asked once about how he knew what was happening with SCLP and his reply was I have regular communication with them and can ascertain what is happening,ask any relevant questions and monitor our investment.
To pretend that PIs have the same access to any Company like SCLP that the likes of major institutional SH and people like Brokers have is naive.

TD are experienced healthcare and life sciences analysts providing the highest quality service to companies in these sectors and to investors. We have expertise in the fields of the biotech,.

Of course it is not illegal.SCLP will not give them material inside info but who do you think gives TD the figures.I suspect it is the client ie SCLP.

Afternoon.Do feel we need a little bit of balance regarding Trinity.
Ray yes they do use industry averages but their risk adjusted DCF measure of valuation is very standard practice in the pharma industry.
How else do you get any “ independent” valuation of a non revenue producing Bio pharma with potentially compelling science.
Plus they will have access to far more information direct from SCLP that none of the rest of PIs may have.So they can speak directly with likes of BoD to get their perception of risk.
I said in an earlier post you should take anything anyone says with a pinch of salt but imo if you don’t understand how to value these outfits it is better to consider the likes of TD as being far more accurate in their assessment than any other views.

Good response Deepjoy,
I just think that if it was just CF talking but little news I would be a bit more worried but
1.He has loads of skin in game although he is in at a low level.
2.He has announced loads of new business after reducing the operating costs and is recruiting again.That is a huge positive and profitable.
3.The possible pipeline is fantastic.
4.Immutex bonus.
That is why I am happy to be patient

Morning,
Much has not added up here for years lol

Three Seas Conference Agenda Oct.

https://3seas.eu/event/summit-and-business-forum/agenda

At Munich Security Conference.Adam Kingzinger

https://3seas.eu/media/news/reinforcing-the-transatlantic-ties