Member Info for Ivyspivey

Apparently Bruno on today can anyone post link please

Vanguard-Sorry meant AC(agricultural chemicals) rather than Animal health(AH) but great links with agriculture

This us one of organisations Tyratech used to work with on human side.See Slide 19;for Jonathan Hill UK country manager another ex Merial guy.Used to Head of Marketing Companion Animal. http://www.ceutaalliance.com/hres/The%20International%20One%20Magazine%20-%20Berlin%202014.pdf In AH they will have loads of contacts and know who is best to work with. Vanguard one of big SH also has lots of interests in AH especially in US

Octopus Investments 19.91% American Vanguard Corporation 15.15% Legal & General 7.04% CriSeren Investments 5.41% Halifax Share Dealing 4.35% TD Direct Investing 3.92% Harwood Capital 3.79% Mr. Alan J. Reade 3.32% Plus the BOD have about 2.5%. As a simple majority is needed we know the sale will go through

No worries. Keep on the lookout for Bruno I/vs as normally likes to give them on news and sure he will be keen on explaining rationale and give more details of progress.

17You could be right and I have long thought the review would lead to a hive off the human side to concentrate on AH due to the background of the BOD. A couple of things which BJ said in the I/v just convinced me a bit more. The using of the money to concentrate on the US Vamoose sales when the marke has recovered to be the best possible valuation when I think they would have spent more in UK if they tended to keep Vamoose. The specific mention of the AH pipeline and the specific references to chicken mite and the reference to main US poultry Company's doing trials and knowing the oligopolistic nature of the industry means you can really build that side with a small team and a few strategic alliances. The mention of the industry and consumer sentiment was a big driver and BJs previous experience would put him in a great position to exploit this to the full. Only my thoughts as usual It was clear to me that the strategic review would seek to sell off the human side and concentrate resources on the AH side.Tge main issue was could they do a deal and at what price. To me they have succeeded really well in both areas and as someone who has spent a lot of his working live involved in selling and marketing ectoparasiticides in all species and have worked with some of the BOD in a previous life I fully realise that the approach chosen to move Tyru/TYR forward is the right one. GLA

Totally disagree.It is a great deal allowing them to concentrate on AH which is their strength and huge potential market. They can�t do both which was the whole point ifvthe srategic review. The SP was 1.75 abdvtgst is the reality whatever your average.So we have a choice Vote yes and get 2.85 or hold for longe term or vote NO and you will get a dilutive raise. The way the SH holdings are I think the BOD will get this passed easily enough but we each have to decide for ourselves

Luke probably give a much better e plantation of difference. Even though I have done my Wien form it was just much easier to trade Tyru unless you already had Tyr shares but don�t fully understand the difference but feel they must be roughly correlated in SP. Again not sure if release of RNS s on TYR is for any particular reason. In fact you think they woukd out out any RNS on both platforms as the cost cannot be that much given how few they generally release. As I said I am happy with current situation as gives you the chance to trade Tyru if a very good/very bad RNS happens and you pick it up qypyickly

I really posted stuff for info only and try and give people a better understanding of the way US pharma works. Director buys on AIM are often seen as great endorsement but most US execs package is heavily weighted towards performance and share options. I took part in the Merck share option scheme a few years back and did very well but only had about 0.1 % of some of these guys options

https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/top-15-highest-paid-biopharma-executives

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-5063439/Glaxo-lures-scientist-Google.html This would be pretty typical of the deal that Top level pharma execs earn,including GL at Merck Aas he was operating at that level.In fact being Business unit head and at Merck his deal would probably be considerably better. To attract these to the likes on MTFB they gave them loads of share options etc and the same applies to the other BOD.Also given the nature of these type of business s especially in 2015 when joined compared to the safety of Merck the potential payoff has to be big to balance the risk. Know he will be on decent money here by most standards but you have to compare apples and apples Nd the granting of huge share options also keeps an added degree of control in friendly hands.

Then you have between 5-10 small indtitutions( I know at least 5) who have much smaller amounts bought in the last placing or have been there since the start like me.They woukd possibly have another 3-5%. Then you have the PIs.I know a lot of them and yes some would certainly sell for 4-5x current current SO but think way short of 99%. These will be replaced by newer investors . Add in the likely strong build up of US investors as Approval process gets closer and MTFB ramp up the investment story there and thus will reduce free float even more. Add in the � white horse� informal strategy by pharma and friendly institutions to prevent any hostile takeover of valuable assets at a knockdown price and anyway MTFB have clear funding through to commercialisation. These are my personal thoughts only but my considered opinion is that a hostile takeover would be strongly resisted if it was at a lowball $400m when they can simply wait 12 months and secure a much higher offer. On the other hand they may decide to continue on their US path and licence out the ROW-it all depends on how much mullah is offered and who the potential partners are. But you only get one crack at this and the BOD will put the long term interests of SH at the forefront not just to create a spike for traders.

Last word on the subject from me as it is all about personal views some may have specific agendas or have various levels of understanding of MTFB and this space. You should never believe what anyone says on a B.B. unless you trust them based on past postings etc but even then should DYOR. AIM is a traders market rather than an investors market and as such is mainly driven by sentiment and market antics.Anyone who had been here for a while will be aware of that as negative sentiment due to essentially to a continuous falling SP by ATs and clear targeted selling into any good news or rise. But the science journey has made great progress and sentiment will return quickly if the SP action continues without the ATs. It takes minimum of $1.25bn to get any drug to market let alone one capable of achieving blockbuster sales($1bn pa) so why on achieving this would you be happy with $400m.So even just break even would be $1bn+ imo. I am not saying it will be a market cap of $2bn on Approval in 2019 if it all follows the normal plan.Would expect $500-750m.BUT IF someone wanted to buy it either big pharma or hostile takevover or do a global deal then it could easily go for $2bn plus? On Approval this would be a really attractive prospect for a big offer and I have discussed potential valuations for different scenarios in past discussions with MTFB. Merck paid $8.5bn for Cubist essentially Cubicin. Why? Yes they paid too much but you have to think IF someone like Merck bought out global rights to Iclaprim how much would they pay. Firstly rather than achieve $1bn sales of Iclaprim in 5/6years then they would probably do it much sooner and raise peak sales much more so rather than sell $7-8 bn over the QIDP 10 year period they could easily double that based on their existing structure. Also it provides their SF with a really valuable entry point to key consultants so they can connect with other parts of their portfolio. Pharma due to the patent cliff are rapidly changing how they operate and desperately need a new product pipeline. No where is this more true than the AB space and think of the size of the market opportunity and the kudos of providing an extra weapon in the fight vs AMR a real global threat. As for preventing a hostile takeover MTFB monitor these things all the time especially given the strange patterns of trading. Firstly any potential takeover vehicle would need to get to 30% without inflating the SP hugely.I would say this is virtually impossible as soon a it became apparent anyone hostile was building a big stake the SP would rocket on speculation alone. The AMP stake woukd certainly Be sold off market to a friendly backer and at the Invesco stake of you include warrants is just below the 30% threshold then you have another 40%( you need to include all the share options and warrants on a fully diluted basis) in � concert party � hands. Then you have Aviva and SG with another say 4% each.They probably could be p

Why would they accept a hostile bid of �400m and suggest would certainly not be acceptable to the BOD and the major SH. Any attempt to launch a takeover would imo be rejected and certainly not accepted until the market cap was $2bn+. MTFB are extremely confident of Approval and know this will be worth many multiples of now whether a global deal is done( which is unlikely until Approval stage) though it could easily come earlier or a ROW deal is done and they commercially US themselves which has always been their intention. A lot depends on 3rd party�s and what they do or don�t offer.The BOD will decide in the best interests of MTFB and are fully aligned with SH

With the desperate need for new ABs and the FDA approving Delafloxacin with a Black Box warning earlier this year and the 2 positive p3 trials with as I understand it no issues with CMC then the chance of Approval is really high 95%+ imo. It is at that stage that big pharma will make its move but although they want minimal risk they are prepared to pay top dollar so great upside and little downside given all the pain we have been through here.

Hi los Likewise but you can see from the dramatic rise on TYM that the significance of the RNS was not fully appreciated until a day later so if we get big news here then we may have a chance to digest it ahead of other investors

Should put it also depends on numbers of shares re calculating the SP and market cap and that is why the non dilutive Hercules deal and potential partner deals are so important. Not saying they will never need to do another placing say to complete HABP in 2-3 years time but of course they should be genersting revenue by then and all the BOD and major SH are fully aligned with us all often st much higher averages than we have now

Yes the QIDP is huge as it would normally take 5-6 years to hit peak revenue so say $1bn but once you hit this level the next few years you should maintain this level of sales so you could easily see $7-8 bn of Iclaprim in ABSSSI and then you have HABP and use vs MSSA and MRSA in other indications. Then you have the FF angle with Iclaprim so if anyone wanted to buy MTFB you can see the levels a pharma woukd have to pay. Iclaprim will be very profitable as manufacturing is straightforward and the api is cheap.They won�t have the normal R&D margin as this will already be discounted and the rest just depends on their commercial model. The closer you get to launch the more accurate you can value the pharma as you can get a much more accurate measure of potential sales as you can better assess the market opportunity/competitive landscape/pricing etc. Plus of course as the risk is almost eliminated then the discounted factor is very low and you have the right timing for a big pharma global offer to come in and they may be willing to pay premium depending on their need for Iclaprim

Very large trades look like all buys to presumably mop up all the sold stock so this will rise quickly on news. Are these trades a sign of incoming news so be on the lookout early next week. As it comes on TYR any big news on the strategic review could give an opportunity to existing SH to buy more if they want to before a wider audience becomes aware. So watch and wait.

JOM=JPM Healthcare Conference