Member Info for Ivyspivey

Re 15th Jan and AMP.Not really concerned as sure lot of interest IF they have to sell and probably manage an off market transaction with minimal disruption here and we can�t be certain that is the real reason behind all the ATs. Think there may be a good chance AMP can sort out some other financing but that is down to them and yes would be an extra complication here but woukd only delay things not anything else. Before then we will have JOM in early January and feedback from there may be a lot more telling than Nything on 15th

US As the cost of getting any new drug to market is about �1bn + then this has to be minimum valuation but with potential blockbuster revenue and 10 year patent protection it could easily be worth $2bn plus assuming Approval. Peer valuations are less important as you can do DCF calculations with a high degree of certainty the closer you get to launch. It also depends very much on who the partner deals may or may not be done with and that can make an enormous difference.There are a few variables that you need to better assess the future revenues and profitability but all the signs look very good

Hi Itsg You may get those sort of figures on a buy out or global deal.Iclaprim will be very profitable and the QIDP status is a real value added part of deal but even assuming $750m in US and $250m ROW the ROW but will be royalty payments only in order of 15% so you need to take that into account but still huge upside from where we aware now lol

Zacks are close to MTFB so the 20% MS target is in line with company thinking. However it us 26% of the 3.6m ABSSSI patients each year in US or 936k that they are targeting so a $2.8bn opportunity so 20% of that figure is higher than Zacks conservative estimate of 20% of oatients with renal insuffici quoted in the report. Plus they have ROW ABSSSI sales royalties and potentially HABP plus other therapeutic areas where I kaprim May be used vs MRSA and MSSA. When I spoke to GL at Jefferies I specifically asked what kind of sales they e oected from Iclaprim in peak years.He pointed to the pages in their latest corpotate Presentation November-on website. Where Vancomycin and Linezolid were highlighted both blockbuster over $1bn pa and that is what they are targeting with Iclaprim. This view is readily endorsed by the numbers of TMs and MILs etc that they are talking about in commercialising in US

Firstly they are as frustrated as we are with the SP performance and fully believe there are clear agendas being driven here. He can�t or won�t reveal more details regarding any knowledge or suspicions of the strange trading but taken steps to find out and will take action on any malpractice further. All he can do is issue positive news which should increase market sentiment but the constant selling into any rise( not the action of a real seller) but obviously not helped by AMP cash position has clearly brought about a downtrend. I am really not bothered as I know they are all fully aligned and apart from possibly AMP being a distressed seller there are no clouds on the horizon either on the science or funding wise. I know this is hugeley undevaluedvand it will respond at some stage.If anyone can give me any real reason why they think it is the right value happy to engage but all responses so far just raise unjustifiable ed concerns imo As always these are my personal thoughts and happy to keep my considerable stake here until the science changes or the way forward is compromised

We have seen that the SP does not react long term to great news likevR1 and R2 readout and funding so why would it react to me too News but probably just feed into the negative posters who will raise this as a P&D This is trying to build a mid tier pharma company and is very difficult.It is very hard not to recognise what they have achieved but anyone in the industry will understand this. The only thing disappointing here is the declining SP but there have been other forces at play not just normal investor At some point this will change of that I am convinced when is the question imo

Hope you are good and great to see you do well today on PYC I missed it completely as tied up elsewhere even though I used to work for Merck so knew significance.

Have they increased their holding or just reduced number of shares on loan hence effected direct and indirect interest

Yes all the main institutions Invesco/Aviva/SG have a far higher average buy in price so whatever their hidden agendas if any then they expect a much higher SP at some point in the future.

Hi TQ The real test is when the rIse happens will the ATs try and limit it. Of course the lower they take it the bigger the bounce so the harder it is to hold back.But whatever?

See=sell

Because most of them are buys. The actual see price is below 31. Not saying the ATs will not kick in this afternoon just before US opens

Dave-have no concerns whatsoever. Yes is frustrating but very relaxed and comfortable here as know the true value is way North of here. Funding and the positive p3 trials have eliminated the risk imo

Spmc don�t disagree with some of your logic and both very good risk/reward plays. Also as IMM has risen strongly recently then its entry point ATM is not as attractive as here and again I woukd expect The SP to rise Q1/2018 there but as we have seen from here trying to predict SP movements is fraught with difficulties. Certainly if Lupozor is Approved I think it will be subject to a take over or great deal as I don�t think it intends to commercialise itself like here. Hopefully if you can time it right we may be able to compound winn8ngs but best to cover your options a you say based on your own risk/reward.

Cammy-take everyone at face value and similar age to you but only invested here as fully aware of story and trust some of BOD.Even though I can afford to lose I invest here because I believe it is a great investment. Have much smaller holding in IMM but so hard to predict which one will respond soonest. Timing is everything and IMM had the big rise recently but my experience of AIM is it does not respond equally to news as is sentiment driven. Hence great news here on R2 feedback in early October clearly better than current IMM p3 results got great response but then walked back down to pre R1-clear misrepresentation of value here. Yes P3 of Lupozor May be good in early 2018 but revenue generation her much earlier. My advice would be to split your investment in whatever proportion you consider best for your risk profile and circumstances and be long on both rather than try and predict SP movements on known catalysts which on here and elsewhere do not respect accordingly in pharma at least

Think the overwhelming feeling of investors is 2 fold. The LTH most of whom will be underwater will be frustrated but have an opportunity it�s to average down if they are able to. A whole host of folk waiting for this to bottom and pile in as they appreciate site the value and potential here as well as previous SH who sold out st higher prices and want to buy back in Yes we don�t know what will happen with A P but MTFB have a history of an orderly market arrangement and imo there will be plenty of institutions waiting to buy in. This could reverse its trend at any time with or without news or when the silly games stop. What I do know is at some point in the future this will be a lot higher.It May be a Ricky ride st Times but we will get there

We share the pain of a falling SP here for me and SAR for you so please don�t put fuel on the fire by asking pointless questions but will attempt to answer. Firstly this will be on the radar of big pharma Merck for instance where GL has regular meetings with previous senior colleagues.DH will be similar for Pfizer etc and RM for Celgene. Roche who discovered drug will also be aware of it. How many new ABs do you think get through p3 each year we�ll only a couple at most. There are various options to US commercialisation and they are fully funded. I know their preferred options and these are not the most costly ones but no point in detailing further as you will only try and be negative once again.

IG-not sure if it is part of any process except When a SP rises dramatically such as on R2 positive results it triggers a degree of interest and likes of SimplyWallstreet like to piggyback on this interest and post their standard ratios based on turnover etc and invite you to pay for additional research or get you to tweet or retweet their posts so they can generate interst etc. Noticed a few linked sites like this on US boards.

Only published as SP rocketed on R2 positive data and then strangely fell back. Most of their opinion is based in earnings expect etc but don�t seem to know MTFB is at a Pre revenue generating stage.

Yes good article Tobias Question for Upchuck if looking in.Any thoughts from a US perspective regarding this type of activity relating to MTFB.Not sure if you are mainly pharma or financial background but any input appreciated especially related to end of first year on Nasdaq when restrictions on fund investment may change.