Member Info for Ivyspivey

We don’t know if he did as have not seen e mails but indicates he could have paid off $2m interest if necessary

Furthermore you had changed your mind and being negative before this w/ end so lack of press today cannot be any influence on your decision

I have no one filtered now do see all posts.
Will leave it for others to decide if I am just confident( sensible to me if you have a large amount invested) or a “ ramper”.
Most will know I have been in this since inception so first AIM SHARE 4 years ago so hardly pump and dump.
What made you “ realise you are right” as nothing has changed in last few days as total lockdown.
I discount the SP “ shuddering to a halt” as that is not based on any facts and if the fact there is no press today is the sole reason for the change then I am glad you are not making my investment decisions.
GLA

Sorry 5p my mistake in not reading dates properly.More about trying to make point he was inserted and deleted on same day.

To repeat Hemo.It is like using your own cash and demonstrates a lot of confidence if you are prepared to accept a much lower salary than you can otherwise achieve but many share options than simply buying shares with your own money if you have been able to receive a much higher salary in the first place.
Plenty of examples where the BoD buy shares and is seen as not always seen as positive.
Yes is about skin in the game but whether this by getting higher salary and buying shares or lower Salary and lots more options immaterial to me.
But you can argue US system gives more confidence as much more reward based than traditional Uk one

Hemo,
Think you have answered your own question.
To me it is whether the BoD are aligned not whether they have bought shares or not.
This is a US Company and they do things differently.the whole compensation package is reward based so relatively low salary and lots of options based on milestones usually regulatory/financial and not SP driven before revenue generation but will change when sales start to come in.
You are right the last director purchase was back in 2015 when the new NED bought £100k at I think 60p.Safly he resigned due to ill health.

Sorry cash flow= cash burn of PRTK

If you look back to 4th Feb Tim at YJ was inserted and deleted so think it may just be website shenaigans but worthwhile a phone call to YJ from FSG to confirm they are still in situ

Liquid 1.
Rarely comment here as used to be in here but have very significant exposure to MTFB at present.
Just to add they also have additional patent protection in Iclaprim until 2037 which obviously goes beyongpd the 10 year AVSSSI exclusivity gained by QIDP status.
ATB both here and MTFB

The key differences between MTFB and PRTK are much more about cash burn and the cost of getting to market rather than differences between Iclaprim and Omadacycline.
Essential drug differences are Iclaprim is a different class ie a DHFR rather than just a “ newer tetracycline”.
It has a lower propensity to resistance due to working within cell/ is novel/ never been used in veterinary use/ bactericidal etc.
There are few differences in SPCs to differ drugs apart from formulations and indications which Omadacycline has over Iclaprim but the whole market targeting of MTFB is vs Vancomycin as soc in ABSSSI not vs a Linezolid which is what PRTK focused on

Pidlan
Yes GL has highlighted likes of PRTK and AKAO as comparator guide to market cap but that was sometime ago.
When a drug is going through its trial procedure you use either a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) - riidk adjusted or Peer Valuation.
Due to difficulties of calculating risk the peer valuations are often used earlier in the process.Once Approved the regulatory risk is eliminated so you tend to move onto the DCF measure with zero risk as main measure.
I can assure you that GL compare MTFB with PRTK at present given the huge cash flow of the latter as compared to MTFB

Nice t have a bidding war but I suspect one offer will be enough

Callisto.
There is not a hope in hell that they will accept a low ball offer.
That decision will be made by the big SH all of which want a much higher return than the type of multiples mentioned here.
They know exactly what this is worth as if Approval is given the regulatory risks have vanished so all about sales projections and length of patent protection.
These valuations are fairly easy to work out once Approval has been given.I can assure you that given the level of patent protection it is a huge factor in increasing he valuation.
I can repeat imo sny lowball offer will not be accepted

Some nice posts this morning.
The ATs to keep this in a range obviously have a very good reason that ATM is unknown.Is it an institution to control any rise until Approval I am not sure as Invesco have always been supportive,M&G have come to party fairly recently and I know SG complained bitterly about the SP being dragged down to low levels by ATs.
Could be someone else but this has been going on so long not sure if another big outfit would have built some sort of position by now.
Is it shorters well good luck with that one and now they can’t borrow shares from Aviva I think that is not the reason.
Big pharma simply do not operate by seeking to hold shares down and then building up a stake they simply make an offer to the major SH who are fully aware of the value and not affected by current SP.
GL has an open door to all the major players who may be interested in MTFB.He will know exactly what their thoughts are and they will know his ballpark price.
There are very few pharma players in this space and yes always a left field possibility which would only come after Approval but consider this if you were holding a hand where you were 95% plus chance of Approval would you declare it fully.
I am sure there will be a considered plan based on offers and feedback on what has been said and obviously Approval is a huge milestone which unlocks the pathway forward.
They could go in several directions but all the evidence suggests they are not going it alone which is a major funding hurdle removed moving forward so will await news with interest

Yes appreciate all at FSG forveffort in putting all together.
Initial informal approach via YJ I think is right one.Given high stakes and delicacy of situation it needs to be handled carefully.
Appreciate everyone wants to know detail about CC etc but guven situation I would not want anything said that could prejudice anything going forward.
Can guarantee that any information,inference etc will get back to the shorters so would rather they say nothing.
Would be happy with just saying progress on ground going on as normal and business as usual and key to this is any informal personal relationships between FSG and FRR.
The one thing e mails have totally dismissed is any cabal involving ZM and SH in taking the Company private to then carve up so at least we know the BOD are fully aligned with LTH whatever the final outcome

Hi Sheltie
With our experience here ”quelle surprise”.
Just kicking myself re not having a trade in AMP given the gearing.Dont like the fundamentals there but should have recognised the short term opportunity

Worth making point again.
It is an FDA decision timeline and even if MTFB are aware of the decision in advance which is what I expect they will not update the market until FDA confirmation.
This is not like a Company delaying a bad decision.
The point I am making is that IF the FDA do not announce until say 1230 EST then that will be after market close on Wednesday 13th February so if an RNS does not appear during trading hours on Wednesday it does not mean the news is not good as some trolls might well,appear if this the case.
There will be no leaks so until the FDA decides to release news the earliest you will hear from MTFB is st the same time or very soon after certainly not before

Morning
Still think it is likely to come Wednesday or possibly late Tuesday.
The reason being they wiil want to stick to PDUFA date but am confident the decision will have been made by now even if it needs rubber stamping.
There has been no Add Comm so that tells me no major issues to do with science or phase 3 trials and I assume any queries on the safety and efficacy have been answered.
So that only really leaves CMC side.So we know Iclaprim is very stable as was produced to trial standard so only possible issues would be scaling up with CMO(Contract Manufacturing Organisation).
These must be Approved so no issues there.
The decision will have been made by now and the shutdown probably helped as later PDUFA decisions were put on here all effort could be focused on guaranteed decisions like Iclaprim.
There is no FDA Committee meeting made on the day before PDUFA date in the way an Ad Comm operates where you can’t predict the outcome.
So they may release news late Tuesday as they will have made decision.
They will have probably already told MTFB but total lockdown and news release will be co ordinated.
Still very confident about getting Approval but of importance is specific labelling detail which I presume has taken much of debate rather than if Iclaprim meets the safety and efficacy criteria.
Yes is an extremely low risk that there may be some CMC reasons but in the longer term most of these can be sorted.
In summary retain very confident in a Approval re efficacy and safety as don’t forget other products have been Approved but with black box warnings.In the absence of Add Comm really can’t see that possibility here at all.
The precise labelling will be interesting.
Confident CMC issues will be fine given GLs natural caution and attention to detail in these matters and record of choosing top partners in ensuring compliance is high.
Iclaprim is naturally very stable and success in achieving trial status with the original api( active pharmaceutical ingredient) is key evidence.
GLA

Like most pleased these remain suspended as one can only imagine the goings on and the SP if this had still been trading.
We are all locked in for the outcome here good or bad for LTH.
Will be good to start getting a little feedback when FSG starts its informal contact with FRR.Of course anything significant will need to released via website or RNS R but in a vacuum it will be good to get a view of FRR optimism and general feeling for what is happening on the ground.
We know the shorters Will rubbish any optimistic soundings and yes we know that in the past FRR has not released many bits of news to the market some for good reason and some we could argue about.
FRR should be much more amenable to approaches from SH groups than in the past with FOF due to the hostile takeover circumstances of the time but since ZM has met many of the leading SH and we appear to be all aligned it should be easier to at least gauge some indication of how things are shaping

FDA will let MTFB know beforehand so they can prepare release of news.
Could come anytime.
My guess would be a7am on 13 th with details of a Investor Conference Call for later that day mainly for US audience