Member Info for Ivybush

Had another look at obs aerial shots, what looked to me like a darkened area [i.e. cleared]
on second thoughts looks like a shadow from clouds! Well maybe next RNS will help.

@ observer842 Certainly looks like shipping has commenced.

Any guestimate of percentage so far?

@HeidHoncho it is not a conspiracy but good business practice---something the Chinese
are quite capable of carrying out.
On the other side, what would our jv's be worth? We have a "free carry" so would not be
forced sellers--until capex is required!

Of course bcn could raise by placing for all shareholders to partake.

That would further dilute Ganfeng/M&G etc--a management conundrum.

Whatever outcome Cadence jv's are moving ever closer to be included in production.

@observer842 I have learnt to be cynical where large institutions are concerned.

Why would they want to pay more than 25p benchmark already achieved?

BCN will go nowhere without their support---at a price!

Currently hold over 1.1m shares --what I consider a decent holding.

Happy to do so--the trend is your friend. Always works for me!

Well RNS confirms Hanover now hold 56% of shares in Brady.

Are they going to get acceptances over 75%?

Maybe worth hanging on to see final acceptance figure and if below 75% keep as a minority
shareholder. If Hanover expect a return on investment small pi's could also gain.

At least food for thought.

Sorry, I was not expecting Kestrel/Coltrane to sell out to Hanover.

Now a done deal at 18p.

I would guess it would be a put through. Kestrel/Coltrane holdings [circa 48%] transferred
to a new holding company to [a] make new offer [b] manage Brady henceforth.

So Hanover have managed to get 1.37% of shares accepting their [recommended by BOD] offer.

Clearly none of the ii's are interested. Very positive for shareholders from hereon.

@TJ_MAC Options for BOD whilst not exhaustive would include:
a] Capital raise
b] Conv Loan Note
c] Sale of quoted assets
d] JV agreement for Amapa development
e] Amapa off take agreement with some finance upfront

Or perm any 2 from 5. With forecast EBITA there should be much interest.
Lot of negotiation by BOD required in my opinion.

It seems that the market has already decided that there will be a capital raise.

I accept Amapa will need funding but there are other options available to BOD.

This is very positive news for pi's --still some of us left!
Kestrel/Coltrane alliance accounts for almost 50% of shares so impossible to override,
and BOD hold no shares at all.
Obviously Hanover bid will lapse but will there be another in the short term?
My view is that K /C will continue to work together to sort out financing and now with
3 months or so in hand will seek to find a permanent partner from the tech industry to
carry forward Brady development.
Kestrel have been a major shareholder for many years and have a much higher entry level
than current sp and I would expect them to work [hopefully with a new CEO] to maximise
return from the Brady expertise in a niche market.
I would also expect present employees to be delighted at the news today, a boost to morale.

So now we know terms for £1.25m loan from Hanover.
B of E rate + 2.5% [fair enough]
+Arrangement fee £37500 !
+ Fee of £3750 per quarter [why?]
+ £100,000 + VAT "facility fee" to inc legal costs etc
+ more fees [presumably] if loan is increased to £4m

From £4.8m cash in balance sheet 31st Dec 2018 to this, and BOD want to preserve
their positions. Quite unwarranted imv, failure must not be rewarded.
Let us hope for a new offer and an owner with some financial control ability.

Our jv with BCN is pretty well valued at nil at present.

Current mcap for EMH is £29m on paper our 20% is now approaching £6m
KDNC mcap today £8m -- so EMH alone accounts for nearly 75% of our value??

What a crazy sp this is. Should BOD dispose of some EMH rather than dilute
shareholders further for Amapa initial outlay? Would that be possible?

Well I managed to add a few this morning. Have been invested here for many years, since change of
Board approx 3 years ago company has been poorly managed.
Nevertheless a good product range and loyal customers. Do not see Kestrel and other ii's taking a
passive view. We are in for an interesting few weeks--employees [not BOD] deserve a better future.

@jimzi with you all the way---I purchased more earlier this week.

FD has been in the job for quite a few years. Nevertheless I cannot understand
how company has managed to have negative cash flow of around £500k
per month for this year. Any DD should easily answer that.

Directors recommending offer to save their employment imv. They do not deserve to
be rewarded for the recent incompetence. Brady has good list of existing clients and a
firm foothold in a niche market. Must be on the radar for a higher offer.

@Jimzi thanks for your illuminating dealing details. Keep them coming.

But bear in mind Panmore Gordon Financial advisers to Hanover were also very close
to the former Brady management a few years ago when the sp was pushed up to 100p+

Not saying anything wrong in that, just background information.

Agreed, seems to be a game of bluff.
If you were proposing a counter offer you would not want the sp so much higher.
Let us wait for ii's to play their hand and see what the future for Brady will be.

@observer842/tomcat-14 Thank you for your analysis.

I think the potential substantial dilution for bcn shareholders is now beginning to
be understood, hence decline in sp.

My take is that Ganfeng will acquire their 50% at the lowest possible price [25p?]
meaning greater shareholder dilution. After all they are not philanthropists.