Member Info for Ivybush

Since the positive RNS in November re drilling results,
copper [$6450] pr tonne and Gold $1800 pr oz are considerably higher.

Yet sp has fallen on stalled funding ---confirmed by end July?
Surely a profitable future on these commodity prices. Any comments on outlook?

@Observer842 My apologies for schoolboy error! Getting ahead of the game again.

@MrC See Barksy's post 7.10 re note to Stock Exchange dated today.

Although no security mentioned [presumably needs amendment] it relates to kdnc IMO.

So that looks like Trafalgar Property increasing their stake in kdnc from 8% to over 9%.

Is that by conversion of CLN or open market purchase or both?

Presumably RNS to follow soon.

Either way a mark of confidence yet no sp recognition--yet!

Just a small positive? Banco Santander are donating 20 respirators to Municipalities in Amapa province.

Waldez Goes, Governer said of the expansion of the bank in the Province " This is important as we have a
bustling economy in these Municipalities. It is beneficial for the population and the institution".

Still feel the Court decision will be in favour of Dev for economic and political reasons to revitalise this area
of Northern Amapa and secure badly needed local employment.

@Observer842 Thank you for your many calculations and assessments.
I have been following the posts but not quite all the conclusions.
When I started work and studying we did not even have calculators only sliderules!

However it is clear that when [rather than if] the JRP gets final legal sanction
there is considerable "meat on the bone" for kdnc and it appears with the iron
ore price today we will well exceed the published ebitda forecast.
The first stage of a better future for LTH's is about to begin imv.

Whilst none of us are experts in Brasilian law, looks pretty clear cut to me.

Appeal dismissed with no "wriggle room" and confirming JRP is legally valid.

Guess RNS should confirm tomorrow.

@munchbox54 If you google coronavirus Amapa you will see the very active measures
that the Government in Amapa have been taking to good effect.

Gradual easing of lock down now underway. Whatever happens in other
states of Brasil does not impact on the kdnc project at present.

Agreed, but a judgement can always be reversed, which is what the secured creditors want.

However, I feel the Court will take a pragmatic view in that the only way of getting this project
[and with it local sorely needed employment] off the ground is with Dev/Sino/kdnc .
All unsecured creditors have agreed jrp.

Yes, this is bordering on a political outcome, but that is how an autocratic administration works.
The Presidents policy is to ignore CV19 and get back to economic development asap.

I am surprised at the market reaction to RNS today. Confirmation of ore stockpile movement
and shipping to start in July is very positive.

@Observer842 Have followed trail---clearly court is moving quickly on petitions.

But do you see "Judicial Administrator expresses himself: Previous decision is now repeated"
as being a recommendation or just statement of fact re previous hearing result?

@Dallasdaz How do you know Cantor are supporting the bid? and why would they?
forward selling?

Judging by the channels made by the rain water that pile has been there some time.

This rally does seem to be more broadly based and less speculative.

Most early larger buys [inc mine] were later listed as sells.
Have added twice today!

@Obs Yes, below placing price. A situation I was expecting .

Nowhere near my original holding but it is a start! Outlook [and cash reserves] much better than
that which prevailed last Jan/Feb.

I do not think I have stated that "it could be many months before the issue is settled" I was
surmising that banks being banks would be hard negotiators if there was any chance of reducing
their forthcoming write off.
I increased my holding here earlier today. As I have said, optimistic long term.

@Obs Indeed, it would not be WHI themselves who take on board the balance but there
would be a nominee short term holder if the full allocation was not quickly met.

@degsie My experience of placings [albeit many years ago] would be that the broker [WH Ireland]
agrees to take the full allocation [less their commission] and then tries to find clients to offload
on to. If the placing is not completed quickly the remaining shares are sold into the market.
They are not long term holders. In our case looks like circa 8.75p
The new shares are listed for dealing tomorrow.

@Frankie Yes, on hearing the news on Amapa at the AGM I was enthusiastic.
I am still positive on the eventual outcome and benefit to kdnc.

However, many of the hurdles to be overcome from last September were glossed over. It was not apparent
to me just how long stage one [shipment of ore] would take. When nothing had happened by Dec [the original
date for shipment] I became concerned on lack of cash to repay loan etc and said so on this BB.
As no cap raise was made only asset sales [mainly EMH] I lost confidence and sold a large part of my holding.

Now we have cash in bank [enough for next few months expenses] I am more relaxed on outlook.
The last hurdle, which has been played down by BOD, is the DEV negotiation with Bank creditors.
They are unlikely to give up without a fight and despite a lower court ruling in our favour I would like to see
some settlement terms before increasing my investment again.

So , I am still positive long term but sitting tight at present.

@Dallasdaz Thanks for info--I missed that comment.

I am sure the creditors will want a sweetener from somewhere.
Personally would rather see an equity share--with a future buyout agreement for DEV.
Any payments out of stockpile proceeds would mean less to go to rehabilitation costs
and more required from us towards the $168m estimate of same.

@Obs et al It is obvious the next major development will be the [hopefully] successful
negotiation by DEV with the bank consortium who hold a charge on Amapa assets.

Does anyone know approx how much debt is owed to them? They will clearly want to try to
protect their interests and I guess may settle for a slice of future action [i.e. equity] in the project.