Member Info for Ivybush

"Can't see a buy like that in June" Try checking RNS for 27th June 2019

You seem to have a hang up about others research but cannot do your own.

Semel stultus stultus semper. Special delivery for JJJ.

@Positivevibes The BOD and posters here are quite right to say there is a positive outlook.

The problem is the time frame for cash returns to kdnc from Amapa.
In the near term we have no cash flow, which is why the sp is where it is imv.

We are selling our listed assets [EMH/MMS] to pay down our outstanding CLN
[$180k per month?] and admin expenses. These companies have very good
future prospects as well.

So how do we fund the next 6 months? Cap Raise or continuing sales?
There has been speculation on a jv sale, but that would still take time to monetise.
Sale receipts from the iron ore stockpile cannot be accessed by kdnc.

@Apc Precisely why I am holding back to reinvest here at present.

Also we have continuing admin/loan repayments to fund.

@Observer842 I am with you on your analysis.

However nobody has posted here on the coronavirus situation in Brasil which is now
getting out of hand, according to press comments. This is also causing a desperate
situation in Venezuala, the northern border of Brasil.
Yet more delay in shipping the ore?

@isb1974 Since you mentioned my posting nom de plume I thought I may comment on present euphoria.
Due to obvious delay and lack of kdnc cash flow I decided to substantially reduce my holding from Mid Dec
onwards at a considerable loss, although still slightly above present sp.
My big mistake was not in buying but in not selling in March 2019 when I had an eye watering profit!

To the present: we have a good chance to acquire 20% of Amapa [still a couple of hurdles to clear] but my continued
concern is kdnc lack of cash flow. Unless we dispose of assets or raise cash [loan or cap raise] where do the
admin costs/loan repayments come from? As was clear from my previous postings I was advocating a cap raise
last Dec to see us through any delays. Instead we have gradually reduced the emh holding bringing down their
sp to repay our CLN etc.

Yes I am keeping an eye on progress but would prefer to wait for Amapa project funding to be much clearer.
Still a great prospect in the making imv but am now cautious to reinvest given the world economic outlook.

@TJ_MAC I have to agree with your sentiments.
As I first mentioned last December finance was needed for day to day admin and loan repayments.
My exasperation with BOD has manifested into my decision to liquidate my holding except for a
nominal number. This I carried out between early January and first few days of March.
The risk/reward ratio was heavily biased towards risk imv hence my decision to take a very
substantial loss. Clearly I am no longer optimistic that the BOD can raise funds [mcap now £4m]
sufficient to see through the Amapa venture.
I wish all shareholders well but I will not be returning.

Clearly we are selling down EMH holding --equivalent of 2.5m shares YTD
As I have previously stated with no cap raise for admin expenditure the sp will
continue to drift as long as delay [re bankers charges] continues.

Surely we can show a profit here if gold keeps anywhere near the present price.
Copper price seems to be recovering too.

@Bannor Yes quite right RNS only needs to be issued when thresholds are crossed.
Overlooked that!

Do you think [like Obs] that we are running down our EMH holding to pay this loan?
Seems to me to be a likely scenario that we are trading off our shares against payments
which would, of course, be at present sp--circa 13p.

The RNS is regarding our Conv Loan Note.

a] 50% of Loan is repayable by monthly installments until Sept when balance
is payable in full.
b] As loan is reduced so are conversion rights to the original number of shares
when the loan was renegotiated.
c] So the RNS confirms this right to percentage of kdnc capital is thus reduced.
d] A similar RNS will be posted each month -- as long as payments are made.

@observer842 The penny has dropped now! Let us hope that this is indeed the answer.

Maybe there cannot be an RNS as this would be more of an informal arrangement.
Still gives rise to uncertainty in the market which does not help sentiment.

@observer842 I hope you are right, but if there had been forward selling then surely an RNS
confirming this should be made and would have a remarkable effect on the sp.

To appease Frankie I am not unduly pessimistic, simply attempting to explain the
fall in sp. As soon as funding [from whatever source] for our requirements, until
Amapa deal firmed up, is apparent, I will be buying .

@FrankieH I mention the loan because this is fundamental to the future of the company.

Substantial regular monthly payments have to be made and the income to make such payments
is not available. I addressed this by suggesting over two months ago [sp 6.625p] that a cap raise should be
carried out to tide us over the next 6 months or so until the Amapa funding could be properly assessed.

Were that to have been carried out I would suggest that with cash in hand to fund current outgoings our sp
would not be at the present level. It is imv quite possible for kdnc to survive but with the BOD prevarication
and lack of information on this matter I am not surprised by continued selling from shareholders.

@Bannor Thank you for the clarification of the Loan figures.
Further drop is sp making cap raise to fund payments/admin more difficult.
Which assets will we sell first?

Unfortunately we do have a large CLN outstanding with monthly payment
commitments for 50% of it and balance due to be repaid in full in Sept.

This clearly reduces NAV and is weighing heavily on current sp.

It would be interesting to know how many banks are involved, presumably
a consortium including foreign banks. Obviously no rush on their part to
conclude negotiations----in the meantime we drift lower.

@FrankieH I agree with your post 8.18. Amapa is a great prospect but as the development does,
or does not, go to plan, we need to be informed. This venture is of primary importance to kdnc.

No news is perceived in a negative way as the market always punishes uncertainty.
This is another reason why we are locked into a downward drift.
I just hope BOD are on top of the negotiations with the banks.

@degsie Yes it would be beneficial to have Amapa deal in the bag, but when will that
actually happen? It could be tomorrow it could be 6 months away. Like our jv's this is
completely out of our hands and requires Brasilian banks [and probably others] to release
the charges they have over the Amapa development.
Until they all agree, we can go nowhere. In meantime---cash flow?

I take no comfort from the fact that I warned 2 months ago that funds were required to prove
to the market that kdnc could continue to cover outgoings.

The immediate outlook is "cloudy" and until BOD can prove we have sufficient cash available
the sp will carry on drifting lower imv reducing mcap and making it more difficult to raise money.

@degsie Frankly I am not bewildered. The market is aware we are selling assets to keep paying
loan/admin costs. The longer the wait for Amapa news [completely out of our control] the more
likely the sp will drift further.

I started mentioning need to raise last December and was taken to task but I am a realist and the
market is only reflecting the current cash flow situation. We need action from BOD to address the
need for working capital.