Member Info for Ivybush

Well I am with you and staying until the final offer.
It is a shame sp "engineering" does flush out nervous holders.

All pi's please note RNS, Coltrane are still buying at 15.5p

MM's manipulation of present sp quite obvious.

@Jimzi Sure is a conundrum. A number of alternative bids being considered imv.

Although I am well down [have held and added since 2010] I dread to think what the
present book loss is for Kestrel who hold 28%. Any bid would certainly need their
consent or they could remain a minority holder, so they hold the key.

As a LTH I reeled with shock when I saw the RNS released at 2.40pm on 26th Sept
£1.5m needed by End Nov + £15m for future development. SP at time 17p mcap circa £15m

What happened? Dec 31st 2018 £4.5m cash. Add £1.5m = negative cashflow Jan to Nov £6m!
No new contracts in 2019 why? Was updating existing software a waste of money?
Was new CEO so ineffective? Did FD take his eye off the ball?

Company now needs new management. Announcement with RNS on afternoon of 26th Sept
stating need for £1.5m short term loan, quite naive. Market obviously assumed a problem.
Hardly surprising shares went into freefall in following days. Exacerbated by reduction in mcap
some trustees were forced to sell in order to abide by their trust deed.
Is this a management with shareholder interests in mind?

As regards fair value the company has for many years been active in a niche market and presently
have many clients who would be ideal customers for upgraded systems -- which is what the £15m
additional funds would be for. There should be a high intellectual property value attributed to
the workforce imv and together with large percentage of income on regular recurring basis the
present offer of 10p is way below I would expect a major software company to be willing to pay
for a stake in this growing market.

With Kestrel and Coltrane now holding over 45% of share capital I would expect an auction to
be ongoing and a final bid over present sp.
In view of my comments above I would also not expect Directors [who are not shareholders]
to keep their contracts.

Jimzi My understanding is that the BOD do not hold any shares----only options.
A former Director Robert Brady does hold, but he left the BOD some years ago.
Which current Directors hold shares? FD recently confirmed to me no holdings by Directors.

@E_AL Thank you for your comments and advice, I was at one time before my
retirement an authorised investment adviser, and have been a shareholder here
since 2010.
In the last 6 months cash of £4.5+ [built up by previous frugal management] has been
liquidated. Now funding required approx £1.5m [i.e. could be more] "prior to
30th November to support existing operations" per RNS.
So company will have spent £6m+ in 11 months, beyond any net income.
I call that a management disaster---certainly is for long term shareholders.

That is now very historic. She has been in charge of a cash flow disaster since then.

£1.5m aditional funding required before End November, re RNS.

Over £4m cash/near cash in 31st Dec 2018 balance sheet.

Poor management, not recognising major cash flow problem before now.

@tomcat-14 Agreed, that is my understanding from what was stated at AGM.

@Observer842 yes we have a probable game changer for sure, but I would expect to see
a strategic investor [and offtaker?] on board before we reach 49.9%.
Cannot see our BOD coping with $100m plus mining project in Brasil on their own!

I think I should clarify. Chairman did state that an equity raise to include existing shareholders
was an option they would consider, in respect of the increase in authorised capital agreed at AGM.

However as was stated, there is inevitable delay via this route as opposed to say, an institutional inv.

@Observer842 The only other prerequisite before we make further $3.5m investment would
seem to be grant of environment licences.
After this we own 27% and income from shipped ore gets the mine head and railway back
in action, which is what I was implying by "contribute to railway work"

@Observer842 I made notes and had discussion with 3 of the 4 Directors at AGM
My understanding is:
a] |Once all prerequisites have been completed $2.5m is released from escrow.
b] Stockpile of ore at Port can then begin to be shipped.
c] We then raise $3.5m [by CLN?] to contribute to reinstatement of railway and other work
d]There was confirmation from BOD that existing shareholders would very likely be offered
opportunity to share in any equity raise.

KM stated quite clearly, in view of previous experience, in this case he had made the agreement as
favourable as possible for us. He spent 10hrs in negotiation on JRP.

@Observer842 My quickly made note from AGM says 5-15 but I would rather trust RNS!

There was a lot of "meat on the bone" discussed at this meeting --which lasted lasted about
an hour before the formal proceedings--so notes taken in haste are guidance only.
The overall feeling from those present was very positive. I was heartened to hear that
institutional investors and a strategic partner were being sought.
Obviously this would involve dilution but that is the name of the game for us to
maximise our return on this project. Keep the research coming.

@Observer842 I posted on 21st Sept [after AGM] that R$900 was not a commitment.

In answer to a question [and I made notes] we were informed that this loan was expected
to be repaid out of free cash flow from year 5 to year 15.
So presumably if there was no free cash flow in any of those years the payment would be
deferred until positive returns were resumed. That is my reading of the situation.

@Observer842 With regards to the unfortunate death of 6 people at the time of the port
collapse, a direct question on this matter was asked from the floor at the AGM.
KM in reply confirmed we had no liability as this claim was the liability of Anglo American.
He said that, as far as he was aware, it had been settled.

Agreed, looks like we will have to salvage what we can.

How can a responsible BOD oversee such a shambles?

To say this is disappointing is rather an understatement. All was apparently fine at the AGM
although in hindsight as the CEO was not present could be that was a sign.

Maybe at this sp the Directors could be "encouraged" to buy --at least this would show confidence.

There is no way at present mcap of raising £15m via the market. Major dilution in prospect.

I was told that initial reinstatement costs would be manageable.
For example, there is apparently working machinery at the mine head including
some equipment still wrapped in the original delivery packaging!
So it seems the locals are honest and keen to get the mine operational, always a good sign.

@observer842 Besides reading RNS and informative posts here [inc yours] my other
research has been face to face contact with Directors at AGM.

Helpfully they all remained after business was concluded to talk to shareholders.

IMV the best research available is by speaking individually to Directors--particularly
when they have put there own money at stake, primarily on the Amapa prospects.
We are punching above our weight but nevertheless this will be a winner.

KM, who speaks the language, was intending to revisit Brasil to oversee the initial
process of opening rail/port facilities.

Well, I remain invested here having met BOD at AGM.
Still excellent potential imv just have to wait for market sentiment to change.
Political/world trade environment does not help but ev outlook is very positive for us.