The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
@Obs 842 Thanks for the publicity but I do not have the ear of the BOD.
In fact still critical. Laxity in RNS--£2.1m loan now corrected to $2.1m that is a difference of circa £500k
How do they expect us to analyse financial details with such fundamental carelessness?
Yes, I am happier with result of cap raise to cover short term loan payments/project exp etc.
For nearly 6 months I have been advocating this move.
Gives us [DEV] time in hand to continue discussions with bank consortium secured creditors from a
position of relative strength rather than an approaching cash flow problem.
For that reason and CV19 situation in Brasil I am expecting some further delay in any ship actually
leaving Santana with our iron ore. There is also a logjam in world shipping due to the virus lock down.
Is that not why iron ore Sept delivery contracts are rising in price?
Now awaiting outcome of bank talks but in meantime I would expect sp to drift for a while.
@TC-14 Yes, that would be the silver bullet outcome. A bank consortium with ready finance, although
no doubt wanting an equity share of the project, would be my best partner option.
Would be reinvesting then, albeit at higher sp than today, but a very much de-risked proposition.
Let us hope a common ground negotiation with DEV can be achieved.
@TC-14 Great we have all in place to go by Q3, on the ore shipment as per RNS.
My fear, however, is that the bank consortium who currently hold a charge over the Amapa mine assets,
will use every legal weapon to protect their interests. To lose their case will mean a write off of millions
of dollars. Not sure what ,if any, appeals are available but I am sure they would explore all avenues.
For all our sakes, I hope I am wrong to be a little pessimistic on the time scale.
@Obs/Dallas Thanks for your contributions. I have indeed been advocating early cap raise
before any "good news". Why? To have cash in bank as a safeguard against delay.
I know it is hindsight but by doing so in Dec/Jan we would have avoided sales of EMH, [-3%?]
and MMS which are we are told are good investments. EMH sales were well below current sp.
So from Dec to now we are still awaiting news of any shipment of ore stockpile. The circumstances
causing delay have been [and still are] out of our control, and we now have a dire situation in Brasil/Amapa
with CV19 infections/deaths rising rapidly and lock down restrictions.
If we had sufficient cash to cover outgoings and withstand any further delay I would be more relaxed.
@Dallasdaz It is indeed the same BOD as when I first invested here. However my confidence was eroded
from last December when it was obvious a cap raise was required.
I did state on 21st February post that "I am .....increasingly exasperated with BOD's naivety"
@Obs No I am not missing your point at all, which is primarily conjecture and optimism.
We raised £525,000 in early May .Now have £2m+ to make in monthly repayments until Apr 2020.
Any income from Amapa stockpile does not give kdnc ready cash but is to repay debts etc.
I would love to see your theoretical timescale come to fruition but I am pragmatic.
If sp does not rise above 12p then CLN [no conversion] cost will have to be repaid from cash resources.
Add to that admin and any further delay in shipping [was originally going to be last December]
and we get to further cap raise needed pretty quickly.
As I have said many times we need adequate cash resources to give more confidence.
Yes even a sale of assets would do me!
@observer842 For what my view is worth I also think a forward sale was achieved re CLN.
The whole ethos of these lenders is to maximise return for the consortium advantage.
Note outstanding balance of £2m+ continuing interest rate of 7.9% until April 2021.
This produces a higher cost to kdnc than redemption in Sept 2020.
State of Amapa has extended lock down "to restrict the circulation of people and vehicles"
Unfortunately Covid19 is not yet under control in most of Brasil. Maybe this will create more
delay ----would courts still sit? would grant of licence be a priority?
Unfortunately we must expect yet further delay to stockpile removal.
Amapa state just announced new more restrictive measures for social isolation for 10 days
commencing 19th May due to accelerated growth of Covid-19 cases.
See details on Google Coronavirus Amapa.
Whilst not supporting any predicted dates, I also expect delay beyond start Q3
for first shipment of ore.
Take a look [google] at coronavirus Amapa. In lockdown --now extended to 18th May.
Over 2000 cases, rising deaths, and poor health care. 75% of people tested are positive.
Amazonas area of Brasil particularly hard hit.
All adds up to reduction in commercial activity and, like UK, gradual return to work.
"Can't see a buy like that in June" Try checking RNS for 27th June 2019
You seem to have a hang up about others research but cannot do your own.
Semel stultus stultus semper. Special delivery for JJJ.
@Positivevibes The BOD and posters here are quite right to say there is a positive outlook.
The problem is the time frame for cash returns to kdnc from Amapa.
In the near term we have no cash flow, which is why the sp is where it is imv.
We are selling our listed assets [EMH/MMS] to pay down our outstanding CLN
[$180k per month?] and admin expenses. These companies have very good
future prospects as well.
So how do we fund the next 6 months? Cap Raise or continuing sales?
There has been speculation on a jv sale, but that would still take time to monetise.
Sale receipts from the iron ore stockpile cannot be accessed by kdnc.
@Observer842 I am with you on your analysis.
However nobody has posted here on the coronavirus situation in Brasil which is now
getting out of hand, according to press comments. This is also causing a desperate
situation in Venezuala, the northern border of Brasil.
Yet more delay in shipping the ore?