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You have to admit that the genuine investor would have been much better off listening to Jim than to all the blind ramping over the last few months? The real danger on these boards is not discussion but posters who create the impression of something being guaranteed. Sunnyboy would have you think that there is 100% chance that the sp will hit 30p within the next few months. He probably has even fooled himself of that. IMO 3p is more likely that 30p (but hey, I'm just a statistician!). Best of luck IG

"Very difficult to buy below 11p.." maestro - was that an outright lie to try and support the falling sp? I tried a dummy buy and got offered plenty of shares. Now you can buy at sub 10.75. Soon it will be sub 10p 7p and I'll take some as a punt. IG

Sunnyboy. Quotes lke "This will be 30p" are wild & irresponsible and you must know that. The sp hit 30mill at it's peak, when ... a) There were just 50 million shares. b) The BOD were still trusted. c) There was "100% chance" of a workover generating 250bopd (ie: income). d) The rig was chosen and it was implied that we had spud date in the near future. Please stop kidding yourself. By the time the drill is on site (in about 3 months), we will have nearly double the shares (95mill IMO), no short term 'derisking income' and a BOD who are not trusted. At best, the drill being on site will see an an sp of 15-20p. Prior to that you will see a placement and the sp drop to below 8p. IG

"Half of these forums are full of garbage, hence why I prefer twitter" - that made me laugh so much i spat my tea out. haha brilliant.

Good day to you Wisha. L2 is stable, looks to me like they are still trying to keep a cap on it, but are no longer trying to drive it down. I'm still of the opinion that we will hear the cause for the supressed SP soon, and am still betting on that being an offer for the whole firm. However, given my growing beer debt, I'm not going to guess at the timescales any more. My approach is buy and hold, as news could be a huge surprise here. So I'd have to say, yes, it's a top up day. ASAP is a top up day :-) Best of luck IG

... nobody on a forum is needed for that. The BOD are doing it all on their own. I'm not sure how anyone could create a case to invest here. At £5m mcap (7p) it's maybe worth a punt but as Jim rightly pointed out, that is now simply a punt on a wildcat drill. The original business case hinged on 100% chance of success of taking production to 250 barrels of oil per day thus generating an income each month. Now the need for funding is screaming obvious and the risks vast. Best of luck to those who don't want to read the RNS and simply want to put their fingers in their ears and hope. IG

Given that we are now looking for a new rig, and have failed on the workovers. It's straightforward to work out true value... simply cash in hand and value of the licences... Licence cost us £5mill. If we were to be a distressed seller then it's worth a lot less. Cash in hand is somewhere a little over £2mill. Total £7mill Given then mis-management & cash burn. And until a single bit of progress is made, I really think £7mill is stupidly optimistic. The next placement & dilution could be very ugly - I expect they will need to raise enough to pre-pay the full drill costs and the licence extension (my guess is c£2mill raised via 25mill shares). For me this would be worth a punt at £5mill mcap prior to placement - ie: 7.15p. Will put a buy order in at that level and watch the next few weeks to see if I get it. IG

Seriously Sunnyboy. You're not sinking more money in here are you? The RNS is pretty clear - cash burn is ugly. They don't even have the spare cash to continue workovers ... "However, the workover of TLP-102 will now need mechanical intervention, which will be carried out by the rig after the drilling of TLP-103." The have wasted a tonne of time and money preparing for 103, and now will be starting anew. Drilling in Q1 is looking unlikely IMO.. " Due to the delays in the availability of this rig over the past months, the Company has taken steps to mitigate the effect of any further delay. In particular, the Company is discussing alternative offers in place from other contractors in order to ensure that drilling can commence in Q1 2018. Consistent with this, the Company will not sign a rig contract until availability is guaranteed." And they are paving the way and trying to offer a positive excuse for a placement .. "Discussions are at an advanced stage with the relevant authorities in the Republic of the Congo (the 'Congo') for the award of a new licence in respect of the Tilapia field ... AAOG wishes to ensure that this process is completed before the start of drilling of TLP-103" There is no case for the downward trend to reverse in the near future. IG

That cash in the bank is dripping away. There are plenty of costs outside the directors wages. Directors flying back and forth from the Congo. All the other salaries including a drill manager with 45 years experience (inc living costs in Congo). He alone must cost the company $250k pa. The fact that they are STILL owed $300k from SNCP screams out that they are never going to get SNCP to pay their share of the drill costs upfront. I will pop back later in the week when the sp is sub 10p. (not to buy in though - I'm now targetting 7/8p as my buy in price, post placement) IG

....for remaining positive! That was a really ugly rns. Usual AIM rubbish of trying to dress it up with something maybe, vaguely, possibly positve (licence extension). And then pile out the trash ... No mention of workover update ie: failed. Yet further rig delays - and worse again - probably started looking for another rig (after all this time!) No rig contract signed. No cash reclaimed from partner (ie: struggling to get them to pay their share). Continued cash burn and only have enough cash for our share (ie: placement in the post). I see zero reason to invest at this price. IG

Someone managed to get out before market opened. At 11p. Have removed my 10p buy order. Suspect I'll get them a lot cheaper than that. Starting all over to find a new rig. Ouch. Now expect the placement at more like 7/8p. Writing was on the wall I'm afraid. IG

It could...

Maestro. Agree the cash burn isn't horrendous but I'll wager it's over £250k per month. Also agree Jan drill is possible. As is further delays & funding. Only reason I posted was to temper the type of ramping we hear from bore. No brainer. It'll never hit 10p. Guaranteed profit for anyone buying in here. Smacks of denial. The company has achieved zero. The delays were dealt with unprofessionally. Trust me, I could go much lower over the next few months. It's a massive punt let's be honest. IG

Based on the SCANT facts that should read! :-)

Not scaremongering mate. Just opinion & balanced discussion based on the facts. This is not a dead cert that we will be driling and see 100% rise with a few weeks as some would persist in intimating. Far from it. I thought they were trying to reclaim $300k rather than $700... Am aware the remaining cost is $2m. I was talking about cash burn and balance in £. Best of luck. IG

15th should read 25th

Cash balances for ref I think we're ... 30 Jun £5.09 Mil and 15 Sept £3.25 mill. Some was spent on workover but still seems they are eating thru it. We're nearly 3 months further down the road. My guess is that they have under £2mil now. A further delay would be ugly. IG

Fair post. Don't agree with your optimistic accounting with zero cash burn. I can see a raise of $1 mill at 10p and further delays. And i don't want to end up locked in looking at at 25% loss for months. Let's see what the next rns says. IG

This is getting expensive. Well done Guessy. Second pint added to your tab. IG

HI Maestro Thanks for the post. Is an interesting reply but sounds way to vague for me. "haven't been informed by sncp that they won't be able to front their part of cost." - we know they didn't pay up front for their part of the earlier work. And by saying this, sadly suggests that progress is not great. If they had agreed a potential date for the rig then surely they would have begun discussions with SNCP about costs. Lovely idea that, by covering the up front costs of the drill, AAOG would automatically inherit part of SNCP's licence % - but sadly that is simply wishful thinking. I agree Sefton will want to prove up the resource, but I still expect he will hold a gun to LTH heads to the effect that, without further cash, he can't continue. He may cushion the cash call with specific rig details. All this is just my opinion, but this is too risky for me until he's a bit more open. And that does not mean another lie like this classic from August ... "The rig is due on site by 30 September 2017 and drilling TLP 103 should take approximately 45 days to complete" IG