Member Info for itsgambling

L2 looking very strong. Since 11:14 the bid has taken a positive turn.. DMA users appear to have decided it's going up. - 105k sat at 38p plus others at 38.5 & 38.55. Last chance at 39p IMO IG

Looks like someone is very concerned about a problem with the licence extension!! I expect the company are on a fix needing the sp higher to get a 10p placement thru! IG

Absolutely no chance of hitting 40p today. Looking like it's heading south any moment. ;-) IG

Kels - I was thinking the same thing myself!! Argghhh :-) IG

Everyone backing off the ask. The one MM at 39.5 has lifted to 40p+. Just 5k shares showing against one DMA on 39.75 and then we're back in the 40s. Looks like they expect this rise to continue and don't want to give the auto buyer shares too cheap. Positive day. 50p next week folks. The re-rate appears to be moving nicely as we push further into Q1 and nearer to NDA submission (80p) - acceptance (�1) - approval (�2) - and commercialisation. (����) IG

Looks tasty. 39 bid now. Looks like it's go time. IG

The great news here is that we know almost nobody is interested in selling at these levels so the only possible pull back is our manipulator - and it's getting more and more expensive/risky for them to keep providing cheap shares to those accumulating. Be nice to finish the week back in the 40s... IG

L2 looking strong. Autos are buying everything they can. Next leg up looking on thge cards .. IG

L2 is slowly, quietly strengthening. Whoever suggested the retrace to 36s may well have had their finger on the pulse. Building support on the bid .... maybe we're starting the next leg up... Fingers crossed moti-mates! IG

bhav - it's just admin relating to the existing warrants. No new issue of shares or warrants. IG

Hi dudes, In agreement with Ivy, I am unclear on many things but am 100% certain that effort continues to be made to keep the sp below a certain level / rangebound. To be clear, I am saying that this is not someone simply selling. There is an orchestrated effort to move the sp down. I (like many others) have spent a huge amount of time trying to find reasons for this. And have yet to find a single possible reasons that concerns me. One would only push the price down for accumulation reasons. Soon enough we will be handsomely rewarded for our patience. IG

I've tried to answer your questions as fully as possible .. Licence confirmation - latest we had is "... new licence in respect of the Tilapia field which, IF AWARDED, will extend AAOG's interest in Tilapia ... AAOG wishes to ensure that this process is completed before the start of drilling of TLP-103. AAOG is very pleased with progress on the licence extension and hopes to provide a further update on this before the end of the year." No update by end of year so not looking great. If the licence extension is awarded. With no other news to ruin that. Then I'd expect at least a 30% rise. That said - the 3 year licence cost them $5mill (I think). They have entirely wasted the first year. I expect a multi year extension will incur a large cost - and that the net effect of a placement to fund it & licence extension will be an sp drop! Drill - From the above, they are clear that rig contract will be signed after licence extension. Best case for holders is that you get licence extension and then rig contract signed with no placement. That would result in comfortably over 50% rise IMO. And I may well buy in under those circumstances. However, I don't expect that to happen. My expectation is that they will finally move to a new rig and that the costs incurred will require a fund raise. Again, this mix of positive & negative news will, over the short term, see new lows IMO. Of course - there is also the chance they are not awarded a new licence. In which case the sp drops over 75%. And, until news (given the delays and missed promises) the sp will continue to drift down. These are why I am watching and not buying. IG

Not a great investment strategy, to filter anyone saying anything negative. JMO but sounds like burying your head in the sand. Having money invested here is a huge gamble, doesn't mean it's wrong and you could do well. But no point ignoring the facts :- that the company has no economical licence, no rig, no income and little money left. Oh, and the BOD have shamefully misled investors IMO. IG

Looks like the best price the MMs will offer for anything above tiny volume is well below bid. Expect a tick down any time. IG

Cheers lemo and hope this works out well for you. IG

Thanks lemo. I haven't attempted to contact them. I believe you and others when you say that they are quick to reply - but I don't see how they could tell me anything that's not in the various RNS. I believe the RNS are clear that the remaining duration of licence is no longer ecconomical - hence they need to extend it prior to drilling. And that they have no rig and are not confident they will get the planned rig - hence they have just recently started looking for an alternative. And that they have none of the planned income (due to failed workovers). And that SNPC haven't historically paid upfront for their share of costs - hence I don't think the BOD will be able to fund the upfront costs of the drill and will have to raise further funds. Everyone naturally has their own views. I'm happier to wait on the sidelines as I think down is much more likely than up with this sp. IG

That's accurate. If you look back a little further (prior to the "we're looking for a new rig" RNS) then you'll find my target was publicly 10p. After that RNS it dropped to c.7p where it remains. (hence I didn't buy at 10p) Best of luck IG

There c65k on the bid at 38p. So decent support for now. Clearly the manipulator still very active, using small volume trades to actively push the sp down. Could easily be the AMP debtor using the AMP shares to mess around with the sp and make a few quid here or there. Who the heck knows. In the meantime, there is still someone regularly mopping up shares. I'm not concerned one bit. There is very very little risk now and almost guaranteed mid term (Q1) upside IMO. Short term, if we announce a regional licence deal, or an instituion decides it wants 5%, then things change overnight. Personally am still expecting to wake up one day soon to a huge corporate level event but am happy in the meantime that we're creeping much closer to FDA submission news! IG

I only have an investment in Motif Bio. That's been the case for months. Not sure if anyone who read the content of my Aaog posts would think I'm a 'fan' ;-) The original investment case was quite compelling, hence I've kept interested in what's happening. I did have a buy target of 10p but the "we're looking for a new rig" RNS put me off big time. I'm now convinced they have to do a placement soon. If things change and there is a good case to invest then I may well buy in. Currently I believe this price is too high (considering the situation and the risks) and I will get a much better deal by waiting - hence, I will wait and watch and amuse myself at the blind stubborn optimism shown by you lot while you watch the sp drop further. IG

Hello lemonade. No trading for me. I don't have a position here and haven't had one. If I was swing trading then I'd have be positive about the company at some point, where in fact I have only ever been negative :-) "no economical licence, no rig, no income" - all facts from recent RNS. Hope things change for you guys in 2018. But doesn't look likely in the short term. IG