focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Some positive news today.
Hopes have been raised of summer holidays in Europe for fully vaccinated Britons as a deal with Brussels on Covid passports neared completion and Germany failed to convince popular destinations to pull an “emergency brake” on UK visitors.
Restrictions on travel are tightening across the continent for tourists coming from the UK who have not had two jabs, owing to concerns over the highly transmissible Delta variant now dominant in Britain.
Portugal announced on Monday that people unable to prove full vaccination status would face 14 days in quarantine. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said Britons travelling to the Balearic islands would need to show either a negative PCR test or proof that they have been fully vaccinated to avoid having to self-isolate. From Wednesday, the Balearics will be on the UK government’s green list of countries from which travellers will not need to quarantine when they return home.
But for travellers from the UK who have had both doses of an approved vaccine, the prospect of a relatively normal summer break appears brighter, with popular destinations loth to shut the doors on those who are unlikely to be infectious. According to the latest data, 61.9% of UK adults are now fully vaccinated and 84.4% have had at least a first dose.
The German government, which has enforced a 14-day quarantine on all tourists from Britain since 26 May, is yet to convince countries more dependent on tourism that stringent quarantine requirements on all travellers from the UK are necessary.
The prospects for the fully vaccinated appeared all the better on Monday as it emerged that talks were advancing well on the mutual recognition of an NHS app and the EU’s green digital certificate ensuring that travellers can prove their status.
The apps allow border controls to scan a QR code to confirm the vaccination status of the traveller and provide free passage. A European Commission spokesperson said: “There are talks ongoing at the technical level which are progressing well and going in the right direction. This is particularly because the technical system architecture of the EU and the UK are aligned.
“The talks are ongoing – I have no specific timeline to announce. It’s good that the UK is now working with us towards that goal.”
A UK government spokesperson said unlocking international travel was “vitally important” and that officials were seeking to “ensure certification is introduced in a way that works for everyone”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/28/uk-and-brussels-near-deal-on-covid-passports-to-boost-holiday-hopes
Listened to a travel podcast earlier this morning from Simon Calder & Paul Charles. Both expected the US to be open sometime in late August, 75% confident. Also mentioned that they expected the new UK health Secretary to be less cautious than his predecessor with more consideration given to the business implications & other health aspects of restrictions. From that they expect early introduction of the fully vaccinated quarantine policy to be commence in July (mid to late), which maybe ties in with the Canaries speculation. The potential lifting of quarantine restrictions sometime soon is the main reason I re-invested in IAG, hanc**k exiting is a bonus as it changes the dynamic of the cabinet to a more hawkish approach. So would expect a bolder ambitious UK gov moving forward. Only concern is the likely increase of covid delta cases in the EU & the subsequent reaction therein. GLA.
Matt han**ck apparently vetoed Malta's inclusion on the May green list. With himself, Patel & Gove being the overly cautious persons in cabinet discussions. Maybe if he is muted to some degree or even shown the door the UK Gov can take some less risk averse decisions. Currently approx 1600 people in NHS with covid & as the health Secretary said himself very low deaths (more people are dying from other respiratory illnesses). With furlough ending soon many businesses in the UK travel industry will have to decide on whether they are viable or not. Without sector specific support there will be large scale job losses. Perhaps Boris & Co are waiting for these headlines to appear? GLA
Shapps twitter comment.
'Thanks to our successful vaccination programme, our intention is that later in the summer UK residents who are fully vaccinated will not have to isolate when travelling from amber list countries.
We’ll set out further details next month.'.
Agree disappointing not to see the Canaries or any Greek Islands. Still a small step in the right direction. Waiting for Shapps to make his announcement, maybe get more details on the metrics used for the lists & potential vaccine status consideration.
N. I. GOV added the below countries.
Anguilla
Antigua & Barbuda
Balearic Islands
Barbados
Bermuda
British Antartic Territory
British Indian Ocean Territory
British Virgin Islands
Cayman Islands
Dominica
Grenada
Madeira
Malta
Montserrat
Pitcairn Islands
Turks & Caicos
N. I. GOV have announced new green list countries, see below. Hopefully England & others will follow or add.
Balearic Islands
- Barbados
- Bermuda
- Cayman Islands
- Dominica
- Grenada
- Malta
Concur with the views of Jtan & sold last week due to losing faith in the UK gov travel policy. Too much uncertainty/risk in the travel industry at the moment for me. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Good luck to those still holding, will re-enter should opportunities / circumstances change.
View of Paul Charles
https://www.pc.agency/blog/travel-sacrificed-by-uk-ministers/
https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/travel-industry-day-of-action-planned-for-june-23
According to data from the International Air Transport Association (Iata), the UK has only 13 per cent of 2019 flights operating. Germany has almost three times as many, even though the UK’s vaccination rate is 40 per cent higher.
The Abta chief executive said: “I find it very difficult to understand why we have the highest vaccination rate, and yet we have the lowest amount of flights coming into and departing the country.
Question from Chris Grayling to Han******* today in the commons.
My right hon. Friend should take great credit, as should his team, for the progress of the vaccination programme, and I congratulate him on it. Is it true that the Joint Biosecurity Centre said that Malta could be put on the green list?
Matt Han*******
It is true that a number of balanced cases are put before Ministers, and we always look at the pros and cons of each one. Ultimately, those decisions are for Ministers.
So JBC say yes then Ministers decide no let's not take any risks. WTF?
Twitter comment from Mark Harper MP
'Very disturbing to read that key scientific papers are being withheld until the last minute and Ministers are being bounced into decisions.
Especially ahead of key decision on 21 June, to be taken in the next 8 days.
This isn’t how to govern.'.
Will be interesting to hear what questions are raised during this week's House of Commons. Huw Merriman, Graham Brady, Steve Baker, Greg Clark., etc. usually ask a pertinent question. Personally I think the UK travel industry are getting the blame for the rise of the delta variant & the current jeopardy concerning the 21st June freedom day. Unfortunately the decision in removing Portugal has probably scuppered any substantial intl travel this summer, consumer confidence in booking will have been shot to pieces. UK travel industry will need to have transparency on the criteria being used to define the green/amber/red lists. Granular approach is a must. LTH. GLA.
UK Cabinet split on holiday quarantine rules
“British holidaymakers nearly got to Malta without having to quarantine and could have finished their holidays in Portugal until a “heated” meeting all but killed trips abroad this summer. Ministers ignored scientific advice that Malta could go on the green list and rejected plans to put Portugal on a watchlist after a row between Grant Shapps and Matt Han****, government sources say…Shapps, the transport secretary, with support from the Treasury, also argued that Portugal should be put on a watchlist. That was successfully opposed by Matt Han****, the health secretary, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, and the Home Office, who all wanted the country put on the amber list.” – Sunday Times
Ministers ignored scientific advice, wtf is going on?!
Uefa to discuss travel rules with the UK ahead of the Euro 2020 games
Uefa is currently in conversation with the UK government to ease coronavirus quarantine restrictions on overseas supporters for the knockout stages of Euro 2020 championships.
The UK currently has the strictest entry requirements of any host country, requiring visitors from amber list countries to quarantine for ten days on arrival and needing negative PCR.
Travel between the other host nations - particularly other European Union countries - is mainly possible with proof of a recent negative test.
Wembley stadium is scheduled to host the semi-finals and the final, along with two last-16 matches and Euro 2020.
Tournament director Martin Kallen told PA:
We are in a dialogue with the Government; we are looking at what’s possible. The prime minister and the British government said the 21st of June would be the date when in principle, everything should go back to normal. And if it goes back to normal, what will the rules say for foreigners to come to the UK who are not on a business trip?
We are in a dialogue, and we hope that we can achieve something if the situation allows it, that something could happen on that side.
UK gov travel policy is destroying a once buoyant
& world leading UK travel industry. The EU is implementing covid travel certificates exempting fully vaccinated citizens from covid test & quarantine restrictions from 1st July. In the USA for dosmetic travel you do not need to get tested or self-quarantine if you are fully vaccinated, implemented early-mid May. The UK vaccination roll out was faster than US & EU, yet the UK is fencing in fully vaccinated people. Appreciate the UK has experienced a high covid death toll & hard lessons have been learned over the past year or so, but the overly cautious approach is now becoming problematic. Why is a granular approach not being used for potential green list destinations? Am hoping the 21st June England restrictions are lifted in full & the travel restrictions soon after (if indeed it is the reason behind the safety 1st attitude). Can anyone estimate the business % the non UK routes contribute to IAG? Thanks in advance. LTH. GLA.
If the Sun report is true then there is mimimum vaccine dividend for the UK travel industry. UK is OTT cautious now. Anyone have any idea what metric levels the UK gov are using to categorise the green/amber & red lists? Will we be told what the decisions are based on?
Found the story below on the Guardian Web portal.
UK government could allow travel to islands for amber-list countries
The UK government has pledged to allow British travellers to go to island destinations even if the country is on the amber list.
Robert Courts, the aviation minister, told MPs on Tuesday the government would take this approach “where possible” as it prepares to add more countries to the quarantine-free green list when it is reviewed on 7 June.
The move could see popular holiday destinations like the Canary, Balearic and Greek islands rated green, even if Spain and Greece remain on the amber list, and could also give a green light to quarantine-free travel to various islands in the Caribbean.
Foreign Office advice currently states that the Greek islands of Rhodes, Kos, Zakynthos, Corfu and Crete, and the Canary Islands are safe for non-essential travel - unlike mainland Spain and Greece.
“The government will take an island approach for border measures where possible,” said Courts when asked whether routes to relatively low-risk regions of nations would be reopened, as they were last summer.
It is understood ministers have also asked the Joint Biosecurity Centre to provide a separate analysis of islands when it presents its data to determine green list destinations.
Spain, Greece, Italy and Croatia have opened to British travellers, but the countries remain on the amber list requiring 10-day quarantine on return.
Updated at 10.23pm BST
54m ago 21:37
Many thanks for the data botbot. Do you or anyone else have any idea what metric levels the UK gov are using to categorise the green/amber & red lists? I think last year they deemed <20 per 100,000 cases as a safe destination, yet in Germany they used <50 per 100,000. I think Shapps said the criteria would be published once a decision has been made for June 7th. Thanks in advance. GLA. LTH.