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BTW guys just concerning yesterdays results. Today Deutche put out Neutral with 1800P price target.
shows that results were in line with expectations. I think Stroll will just let this SP go and focus on the company itself. Let the results and products do the talking for the next year instead of trying to artificially bolster the SP. He might buy some more up though on the cheap.
How can something like this happen in 2022?!! I think most would agree that people believed the world has grown beyond doing things like this and that even in countries such as Russia there would be something in place to stop something like this ever happening. turns out not.
literarily rips apart all common human ethical beliefs. This is not going to be over in next 2-5 days and it will last for a long time.
The Western Nato sanctions have not even been released, wait till all of that comes on the news.
GT cars update early next year so gaydon will be back to 5000 unit capacity soon, or they will raise the ASP to balance it to current demand.
DBX will have a production increase. Valkyrie production will vastly improve and reflect on earnings. V12 Vantage coming with around 220000£ a unit ASP.
I will be surprised if we don't break even this year.
it might not need a capital raise, I am kind of surprised by today. AML has 420mill£ cash. if results improve and lower operating loss/ or maybe even profit, this year, AML will lose less money (compared with 2021). maybe around 100mil£ outflow this year. that down to 320mil£ cash at end of year.
next year the new GT's should support growth. maybe just maybe its tight.
losses are narrowing as operating loss is far far smaller. also we are at upper guidance of the consensus set by brokers even though it missed the valkyrie deliveries.
they are targeting 8% growth in sales volumes (Core models)
is the vantage v12 core model or a special?
I don't know mate article seems pretty one sided to me. very negative. the Valkyrie is the highest level of engineering masterpiece ever made. hats off to Red bull for design and Aston for now building it. the car as it was developed ran into trouble on the engineering side. these costs were not accounted for initially.
This is what I hate about bans and brokers. for all there "wisdom" about financial matters, they are clueless about cars, engineering. All the R&D intangible assets that were gained by designing and building this car cannot be quantified.
the same development could not be said of the Ferrari "FUV" purosangue. how many years has it been since they said they are making an suv. Now here we are, the car is ready but they are literally scared S**tless to show it because they know its wrong.
IMO at this point I don't think shareholders would care that much about dilution (if it was done at 2000p)
Reason: the company operations and sales have been turned around. New GT's are on horizon and Capex have been accounting for those mostly.
looking back over 2 years, I would have done a capital raise 1 year ago for 300mill. the share price would be much higher now, with significantly less debt, and maybe even bottom line profit would be positive. I think he thought this now would be enough. only time will tell.
I think they will easily beat 7000unit sales this year. just look it was 6182 last year and inventories have been depleted while outputting this many cars.
I highly doubt purosangue will take too much sales away from dbx and 707 since people may buy both, and different people, different needs. the dbx will no doubt remain more economical and adapt to serve its users in every day needs while the purosangue will be more driver focused, with little bit less room.
I terms of management actually (totally imagined) you never know who leaves who (CFO<--ASTON) or (ASTON<--CFO) maybe mistakes were made. you don't know who is advising who and how much. you don't know who gave the idea of issuing further high risk debt vs going with another capital raise. One thing is clear, the issue of further high risk bonds was a mistake (IMO).
I think in 2020, when they took over, they changed systems that linked dealers to their manufacturing lines. They updated, and added logistics/supply chain software and platforms to help them with the demand/supply. The key thing here is information from dealers. not only for manufacturing and demand, but more importantly for estimating forward level demand.
I doubt inventory will ever go back to what it was pre covid or even last year (you would have to raise output at the plants by a lot to rebuild inventory).
sales-solved
model line-solved (new gt's coming out)
manufacturing expenses-solved
bond interest- big issue, main thing affecting net cash flow (reason for loss)
what I want to know is how is Stroll going to solve the LT bond debt at the high interest rate.
some real wizardry is gonna need to happen...
honestly I would wait till share price goes back to 2000p then do a capital raise (300-400mil) pay off large chunk of the bonds.
yes. the stated figures are for full range.
except when I mention the dbx is about 60 (circa maybe 1-2 more). but before when it was 260 and 400 units, in both case over half were dbx (marginally 55-60% units dbx).
they are shifting cars pretty quick. I wonder what happens when it reaches 0.
So guys, 2021 Dec there were 260-270 new cars on Autotrader.com (US site).
now there are only 94 as of today, what happened there....
2021 June there were approx 350-400
IMO looks like DBX mild hybrid to china has diverted a lot of manufacturing 2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1 away from the US, and dealer stocks have plunged. Of the 94 cars, 60 are DBX's.
I think 7000 cars this years easily achievable, especially with new 707, and maybe in summer push the cabriolets.
Just saw the leaked image from the Ferrari purosangue.
If that's the real car, I am having trouble imagining they will sell a lot. It doesn't look "big", and "commanding" like you want an suv to be no matter the brand. Kind of looks delicate to be fair.
I don't think its a piece of "art" like their mid engined vehicles. Its look more like a lifted Roma, but far more ugly. (IMO Ford Mustang mach e rear end).
This shows huge commitment from both ends of the partnership.
https://www.planetf1.com/news/aston-martin-aramco-partnership/
apparently they will set up joint R&D alliance for engine development, lubrication, and material study for both F1 and road vehicles.
No other variants of DBX coming in the future. This means the car is going well with consumers.
https://www.motor1.com/news/564673/aston-martin-no-more-suvs/
and Valhalla coming in 2024 with vanquish to follow.
https://www.motor1.com/news/564667/aston-martin-valhalla-2024-vanquish-2025/
looks to me the major focus is totally 1st on DBX.
while also updating current line up with new models for the 2023-2027 years
it also looks like Moers is pushing electrification as 2025 ev is coming.
I think a 400-500km sport car (2 seater vantage) is totally achievable in todays world. especially with the really high end manufacturers, that have access to better raw materials that can be passed onto the consumer.
So in 2025 when it does come it things should be even easier.
first 707 is due for delivery to dealers in April (2022/04) in Europe.
looks like it gets priority over other models.
you can check out European dealers websites, a few already have it on order now with estimated delivery dates.
Imo they will sell the most in the USA. the DBX has a huge boot, is practical, luxurious and most of all a show stopper; its incredibly flashy. This is on top of it being able to smoke an urus off the line and having some off road and wading capabilities.
I can see it stealing sales from that awful looking new Range Rover.
Correct me if I am wrong but Moers said he expects 60% of orders to be the 707 going forward.
So that's base model 707 vs V8 original difference of around 30k gbp.
I think they could have increased the base price more of the 707 to over 200k. for someone who can spend 160k on a V8 won't even hesitate about choosing the 707. Its seems like a totally better deal in every aspect, plus the fact the stated combined consumption on wltp is almost the same as the normal V8.
The entire powertrain, and almost all of the chassis elements are new or have been substantially reset and programmed, imo that's enough to totally differentiate it. Thankfully its not just a dressed up car, with a new front and rear diffuser.
This share price isn’t falling because of the company is doing terrible (as you say).
There has been a huge cyclic shift in the market from tech and riskier securities to safe and history inflation proof dogcrap (gold/miners, energy….)
Look at US tech stocks worth half as much as they were.
Then there are companies in b3 exchange that make a health profit after tax and are to grow at double digit and value is only 1/3 of what it was 1 year ago.
The stock exchange miss values companies all the time since it’s not a perfect indicator nor a perfect marketplace.
C26 It’s adorable that you care so much about me and that you spend all this time on this website just to help everyone.
Btw I DON’T MAKE MISTAKES.
Too many times have I heard that nonsense story of Mercedes taking over Aston. Mercedes can’t even make a proper ev atm let alone manage subsidiaries.
Mercedes is NOT BMW and never will be.
However amg parts are not bad as they are higher quality than the crap merc puts in their non performance cars. So aston does benefit from that.
ye and just to clarify C26 before you misunderstand what i am saying, I didn't mean FCF is including financing activities.
I am saying FCF is only a small attribute of total CF outflow. the big contributor is financing expenses.
it seems they also paid off interest expense in q4 since q3 cash just below 500m and now 410m.
c26
I see you are still pushing negativity all round :D.
other than the 1 analyst who for some reason said they need to raise cash what else are you basing your assessment on?
up to q3 fcf=-39m so not that bad considering q1 2021 was awful as they were offloading dealer stock still and higher avp pricing power didn't yet come through.
therefore cash outflows is due to finance activity from interest expense of the LT/liabilities.
seems to me only big issue is that.
Capex will decrease moving forward from following reasons.
1. development of next gen cars ev will use Mercedes architecture/powertrain/electronics
2. increase reliance on mercedes engines (no more development cost)
As report and stated end of year cash "higher than expected".
don't really see any concern long term until things go to plan...
there is high amount of risk but also reward is things go right.
sales is improving as they sold over 6100 cars and retail sales ahead of wholesales. dealer inventory is much lower as seen on different websites and also stated by management.