This may be good for us. Supply is lower on cars, pushes the power into the oem hands over consumers.
Moreover aston aims at 6000 units of very expensive cars.
It won’t impact us at all actually it may have a very positive effect on us. It I should create a bottleneck on the chip side.
All major oems are also still prioritising producing the very expensive cars over the cheaper ones because of the chip shortage. So if they can keep going then based on that we will too…
What did I claim as ridiculously untrue?
I never said the Valkyrie will pay off all of the debt neither capex.
I said the capex for the car has been accounted for in the past.
You did miss a crucial fact. They are not making 150 total cars but another 25 track variant (more expensive) and also probably a drop top.
And of course I don’t expect it to fund everything. The normal portfolio will do the rest.
Your comparing a single special limited production car with the Capex of the entire portfolio and all of the debt interest. What is the point of that?
The mere fact that you don’t answer any questions as to why you are here is a big “?”. As I have mentioned before. Do you have a short position?
I won’t sell my stake just because you think it’s a bad investment. And you won’t stop talking nonsense. So it seems we are at an impasse and I really can’t spend more time responding to your non added value comments.
Why do “I need to show my maths?”
I am getting a little bored of “show your math”.
If you want to do some maths go and do some. Not in the mood to go and find figures from past balance sheets and then add/subtract some numbers, in order to entertain you.
But just from memory.
CAPEX will be spread over year. It was 46ml for q1 x4 for the year. Thats a close approximation.
As for the Valkyrie. The development costs are done and closed. It’s a finished car with final small testing going on. So all that has been accounted for in the past in CAPEX.
Customers put what £500-600000 on reservation from a car that costs what was it £2 mil?
So c264 why don’t you show me your future sales forecast and expected figures?
Go put a short position on the share price using what ever financial company you want just be prepared to pay a lot on interest payments to keep it going when the share price rises LOL.
Q2 sales will be very good for uk market IMO. Germany april new Aston Registrations came in over my own expectations.
Furthermore, There were 2 new dbx’s on autotrader.co.uk put up over the last 2 weeks.
They have both now been cleared. That was in 2 weeks!
I think they are testing UK market to see if they could sell even more units by diverting sales from other international regions.
Tobias Moers is not a talker, he is an pusher. Once the new product range is updated in late 22’ or early 23’ , And better interiors are added, sales will soar.
The profit from each Valkyrie this year will be the money used to fund the bonds interest and CAPEX.
Personally I don’t care if AML is not profitable this year or next year. I want to see strategy, execution, and hopefully a maintained sales momentum from this older model range.
Maybe the name is better.
Ye “Darktrace” mhm fits a little with all the problems the major stakeholder and founder in his antitrust lawsuit.
At the end of the day, I like to have the numbers do the talking...
Dark trace is not profitable and it’s revenue is quiet small. The cyber security space is very crowded and therefore I do have my doubts about their growth ability.
Obviously they are only giving the wholesale to dealers, because they said they will do only order based sales.
Wholesales=retail sales + the additional units dealers order and pay for in order to keep for customer to try out vehicles.
Which is why I suspect some USA dealers have multiple cars is because they bought them because that is how they do sales. Customer takes the car for a day-or two.
You can look at it the way you want but obviously they want to sell cars and not pump dealers, like the last team did.
They need to sell 1500/quarter on average to meet 6000 forecast to the end of year. Looks like they will meet it this quarter even though Q1 is usually the worst.
Dark trace revised their ipo down to 2.4£bil.
For me even that is a little too much. And also high compared to avasts poor valuation.
Cannacord the broker gave 550p recommendation on avast and stated that it would yield a PE ratio of 21x on 2021 results. They stated that although profits margins are very high for avast compared to rest of uk IT, avast only average growth of 6% compared to industry of 10% weighs their valuation down. The uk it industry as average PE ratio of 34x atm while avast is only 18x.
If avast again impresses on q2 on revenue growth we could see a big breakthrough.
Here is some raw reading of potential outlook of the future that a Fund has done on Aston’s targets and their potential to meet them. They are comparing them to Ferrari’s valuation. Including the capability of reaching the stated targets of conservative c.10000 units and over performing.
Yes I saw the legal issues with their shareholder. It sounds to me a bit serious and something to consider. I never think to really invest in smth like that, and there is usually always credit behind those kind of accusations especially when they are so high up. ( just my opinion)
I certainly think it would be foolish to buy into the ipo, it’s over valued and I don’t see anything “special”. The numbers arnt that great to warrant such a valuation. They grew less than 50% last year with a valuation of around £3bil, doesn’t leave wriggle room. Therefore that’s a pretty low P/E ratio based on their, what was it £9mil adjusted profits 2020?
Ye I don’t see it as smth I would go for.
You may as well invest in blue prism or some other silly AIM listed stock valued less, with a higher chance of bouncing.
That’s great. Hopefully the show will be good and tomorrow we will see if they managed to increase the downforce from the rake rule change.
Hopefully they managed to cobble smth together in the last 3 weeks.
Just off topic but the used dbx have not increased and stayed stable over the last 3 months at around 20-22 units on autotrader.
Therefore if they target 3000-4000 units of production this year then theoretically they should sell between 800-1000 this first quarter. Plus the sports cars. But it may be the first quarter and therefore these figures might come down. Q 1 is usually always the lowest everywhere.
Just good to remember that to sell their goal of 6000 units they need to do an average of 1500 cars/quarter.
That’s an insignificant number of cars in the world.
If you just look at bmw or Mercedes who sold 660000 and 560000 respectively in Q1, imagine how many of them are M and Amg models. I would say somewhere combined of 40-50k are.
Another summer of no far travelling is coming. People will spend and buy a car they are happy with. Booming environment for automakers.
First time I heard that one.
I usually hear a lot of the Ford useless suv that everyone one is saying “apparently” looks similar to the Aston.
I don’t see how the mustang does.
One is a muscle car with 120mm grd clearance and the other is a 5m length suv.
Well written Richard.
I fully agree with you on your points.
Ye unfortunately the situation is very much like in luxury watches. Atm Ferrari is kind of like Rolex, In terms of branding. But not in reliability haha.
AML need exposure to foreign markets and it will take time.
Unfortunately that job joke was only the 2nd best I heard today not the first.
Where is the last previous 5 year on year eps growth???
AGM? I thought your not a shareholder.
Ye go on invest your money in Ferrari get your measly 0.5% yield :D
First time I have seen someone use trading economics for corporate stuff other than economics.
Check this one out.
Just to confirm are you based at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley?
And oh ye I forgot to mention.
Of course they gave away a slice of the pie to Mercedes.
At least this way it’s in the big OEM’s BEST INTEREST for AML to do well because then they get a huge pay day too. Mhm well isn’t that smart.
And obviously the granted share price is already way lower than the one today therefore Mercedes board are pretty happy already. But obviously I ll let you figure the maths out. It’s one of your strengths.
Ye well you know, yahoo articles are just cr*p.
First it was good if you to look up all the terms so you could refresh your memory.
I once read a yahoo article where the stated P/E ratio was no where the actual one.
Get your figures from a broker that is trustworthy. Or a website that is. I couldn’t care less.
If you would bother to calculate it yourself you would find that their eps is not 23% positive growth year on year. But I will let you do that cause I have better things to do than teaching multiplication.