Member Info for Invstrat

Allah alone knows why they keep involving the Erbil billionaires in these talks…. it should be ICG and Ankara only, or they will never resolve the so called dispute unless a high proportion of revenues and tariffs are deflected into private accounts as is expected, and denied to the general population.

The problem is quite simple:

ICG warned Ankara several years ago NOT to transport Kurdistan oil.

Tribals offerred Erdogan a cut of their cut for using his pipeline.

He accepted the loot and oil flowed.

ICG took it to court and won. The ICC omitted to fine the real profiteers in Erbil for selling the oil illegaly and thereby ignoring ICG’s whimpering objections.

Ankara were fined (strange how the real profiteers in Erbil got off with reaping billions from the illegal sales which rightly belonged to the population as ICG retaliated by denying Kurdistan a cut of the natioanal budget). the population sufferred, the billionaires got even richer and blamed the missing revenues on any convenient event ISIS, C19 …. whatever, a bit of an opportunity was then exploited - the brilliant double-dipping of not reimbursing the oilies as per the (illegal) contracts which they held over us (and exploited to the full/fool).

Now Barzani has been to see his mate Erdo and we are into the final sett:

«Don’t open the taps and browbeat ICG into waiving the fine ( and meanwhile the oilies will wilt into bankruptcy and we will inherit them). Our oil remains safely in our ground.»

Brilliant, innit ?

What can our lavishly rewarded BoD do about it ? (well I bet they won’t want to take the billionaires to court as it will be long and protracted, and there will soon be no funds left to maintain them in the manner to which we have been underwriting them too, now will they ?).

Clusterfl@x Royale indeed.

No drums - probably because they know they are about to take over several going concern infidel oil companies for free .

I’m too thick to understand this - but did Genel give up on that Sarta field and hand it back to the KRG (ie the tribal warlords)? , and have they started paying off employees too ??

Seems strange after the recent mass buying spree by their BoD members (unless they are proxy Local rulers who know exactly what is afoot ……

A whip-round of small change among the Erbil warlords would fix this pdq (but they would want independence and a cut in all SOMO exports - at least).

What does clusterflux mean ??

the politics are another matter of course ****eye - but remember that turkey is borderline bankrupt so $1.5 billion is indeed significant to the country - but small change to the erdogan familly. turkey’s lost revenue over the past 3.5 months is only their pipeline transport fee.

the erbil mafia have already been paid for some of this non-delivered oil (and the purchasing oil brokers companys are after them for return of these up-front payments (good luck with that you guys - start looking in swizz accounts if you van !).

their long-term strategy is in taking over when wee oilies go belly-up. as i said, they have already registered an oil production and marketting companies in readiness for this. the population in kurdistan won’t see any of this, i fear.

Looks like a Long Game is being played here:

Erdogan won’t open his taps until he gets a sizeable ‘reward’ for doing it, he will justify this by forcing ICG pays all (or a substantial reduction) in the country’s $1.5 billion fine for exporting Kurdistan oil illegaly.

This suits the strategy of the rulling warlords in Erbil - as they know that the small oilies will eventually go belly-up, and they will occupy the vacuum.

Just what’s in this for Baghdad escapes me (all they have is the rulling from the ICC in Paris - but that of course is irrelevant and cannot be enforced in this region anyway), so all Baghdad need do is waive the rulling aside - the oil can flow.

Who wins ?

Turkish population (assuming some of the income from pipelin fees actually percolates down to them).

Iraqi population (assuming some of the income from exporting their oil actually percolates down to them).

We small oilies can continue operating our charities in Iraq.

Who looses then ?

The Erdogan familly’s private wealth.

The Rulling familly in Erbil’s private wealth.

Re item b) ….. go after them for common theft then (they were accepting product from us under what was deemed to be an illegal contract, then compounding this theft by not paying us according to their contract).

Try that tactic on with your local domestic energy supply companies - and start buying candles …….

Lets see if Julien demonstrates the same level of fear of the tribals rulling over us with their illegal contracts and bullying tactics - that has been the hallmark of his new colleagues here on our absentee board at GKP.

Here are your priorities Julien:

a) get us a legal contract with ICG (running from now for 10yrs renewable)

b) don’t open our export valves until the payments due (+interest) from the tribals selling our produce illegally, and pocketing it, are safely in our bank.

c) get together with the other abused oilies trying to make a business here in Kurdistan - and present a united front when dealing with any authorities.

d) only deal directly with SOMO - bypass the local billionaire warlords.

Putup …. I recall our original MD Jon at a GKP meeting stating that «doing business in Kurdistan was like dancing with the devil»

He (and Sammi) must have been very relieved to exit stage left with several millions in salary and various departing bonuses out of our little company.

Jon is reputedly marketting some sort of yoghurts out of Canada (believe it or not)……

That’s a good summary Rog ……

Rog: They recently registered their own Kurdistan Oil Company and also an Oil Marketing Company…… that’s why.

Delay “caused by infighting in the Kurdish parliament” is essentially irrelevant to SOMO exporting oil via the pipeline.

I think it is because the current rulling familly in Kurdistan wants to hold on to their power (for another year) until all foreign oil companies have folded….. and they walk in and take them over ?

Probably wrong as usual - but anyone else have an alternative explanation ?

Hi rylidan - am no shorter (taller if anything !) - just a long term realist who has enough stake in this play to make your eyes water, and having worked in this business, in this location with these people - should have known better than get involved.

I am certainly not afraid to spell out what the intentions of the tinpot wealthy rulers are - and sincerely hope I’m wrong.

Lets wait see.

GKP should play hardball now: we don’t open our taps until back payments (plus interest) AND formal contract with Baghdad is signed.

Time for our absentee BoD to earn their fabulous fees and bonuses right now.

And …. a flying camel just passed over our oasis 🐫✈️

Can’t believe we are back to penny shares again.

We won’t go to the wall ….. the B-boys will take us over as a going concern for a token $1.

The region have their share of the country’s budget, they have agreed to market oil via SOMO, many of them are $millionaires (several billionaires), the rank & file MPs see a chance to replace the billionaires from ruling the country via democratic votes …… but this is being denied them for another year ……. wonder who lubricated that court ruling ?

Erdogan’s visit: stillborn, Barz got to him first - with an offer for using (his) pipeline which he couldn’t refuse ;)

And presumably - didn’t.

Stimulating summary there LS.

Addressing your points:

1 Turkey can’t pay - they are on a spiral to bankruptcy seemingly. Erdogan has milked the country dry.

2 The fines for 2018 up to line closure are still being considered by ICC Paris - and they will be proportional to what has been levied on Turkey already.

3 Interesting option to meet OPEC quotas - but we would be crucified by it too !

(and I suspect this was the driver for the B-tribe registering their own Oil company and Marketing Company recently.

I think that the ICG will end up underwriting or all or part of this fine - or nothing will flow.

SOMO needs to secure free use of the pipes until any debt is paid back.

ICG needs to bring the arrogant billionaire KRG supremos to task for defying Iraqi law and selling oil which they had no title to - and are therefore as guilty as Turkey (who only transported it after all - based on corrupt enticements obviously !).

Our contracts with the KRG need very swift submission and approval by the ICG (we can’t pump oil without an official contract with our true host, now can we ?).

FFS Armas >< Indrid ….. may I humbly suggest that you two intellectuals sort out your personal jibes and World Geo-Pols elsewhere please ?

Poisoned Pens at dawn and may you both loose ….. we don’t care.