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tones77777. I fully understand your point, but this is purely an accounting statement. the NAV is based on current assets, and precludes the inherent value of the JV interest in Bots and any residual value in Kemco potential IPO and Spain. we could have the scenario next year where the status quo exists ( highly unlikely ) with current assets but the value of the Bots project ( as per MOD's share price ) could be gross �250m. plus. It is simply the accounting method and how from an accounting perspective NAV relates to current assets, which in this case relates to cash and direct equities.
Fantastic post and summary. Thankyou. Hoping that Resource upgrade due this month will underpin expansion case and then exploration!
Spot on and thankyou and Bonker for all your hard work and valuable insight.! The processing lab has been working flat out since March and T20 EPS should be approved mid June subject then to usual 28 day public notice period.
I see your point and I expect that there is a middle path. The key is whether the liquidity/equity investments allow MTR to fund its Bots obligations and I think we can all agree that it is highly probable. I for one would be really happy if we do not take on any more equity interests until we know the results of the T3 Dome campaign, as if it is as big as hoped then I am sure some sort of equity raise will be needed just to cope with the expedited campaign, but any raise will be from a significantly higher price than where we currently are simply due to investors factoring in the actual as opposed to theoretical district potential.
Very solid set of results . Fully expect the Expansion case the be nailed on, possibly even with a bit of additional wiggle room. Underground also solid and bodes well for scoping studies. Talking to MOD GEO,s over lunch on Saturday they are confident that the mine will be producing circa 50ktpa at year 3 but if any of the 7 sisters within the T3 dome hit then that also will be blown out of the water!
I think whoever criticise the accuracy of Bonkers Blog ( with 162) should take the time to accurately read the full analysis and particularly the statement regarding the calculation of cash and equity investments as best guess with the help of private T1 investors. I think the blog feels a very necessary role in the absence of exceptionally poor PR from the company. As vitali succinctly puts it, the odd �1m or 2 out is not the issue it is if you believe in the Bots story and if the latter is the case that is a really valid reason to invest.
I know nothing about the past but for me it is simply a matter of how big do I think Botswana is going to be. Has the trading side given a degree of confidence that MTR can fund its obligations. I personally think that under 3 p even under 4p it is a no brainer with what we know about T3 and the economics of the expansion case. But the real jewel, the real multibagger potential is the exploration. If you believe in the story what has gone before is history, This share has the chance to change peoples lives, people's family lives and MTR in many ways is sitting on the coat tails of MOD. I for one have a healthy scepticism of management and have been told that MM finds me "difficult", but I believe that the project has its own momentum now and is bigger than one individual.
I believe it is important to remember that this is really just the beginning. The MOD event on Saturday really emphasised this. That both companies have been waiting 18 long and frustrating months to get the exploration campaign underway. However the real confidence is that the existing T3 project is going from strength to strength. Stef the CFO was saying over lunch the numbers in the DFS are looking more and more robust and that they were overly cautious on the $3 copper long term price and expect an uplift to say $3.20 to $3.30. In addition they are targeting cost savings to bring Copper production costs down from around $1.26 per pound to around $1.10. The T3 underground really, really encouraging and feel very confident in a yr3 production of around $45 to $50ktpa which would justify a NAV of around $550m- $600m. So regardless of the high confidence in the drilling campaign and exploration of the 7 sisters dome complex MTR should be trading comfortably above 5p. Regarding project financing, he was extremly confident that terms would be very attractive and the concern was not shortage of funds or strict terms but not over gearing as the project was so attractive to lenders! So a matter of hold onto your hats , but with reassurance fundamentals underpinned and not pump and dump.!
have pleasure of lunch yesterday with Jacques and Steff, with small number of other PI,s. I was the relative newbie so listened most of the time, but talked to Steff (CFO) about the corporate side that is my ball. The team kept on referring to T3 as "starter project" small and a "good start"!. Absolutely confident of upcoming exploration. The AEM and more particularly world leading interpretation ( producing the Dome images ) give a huge confidence to the targets and "like a photfit". In Jacques words. I think this release of the images have made the majors sit up and there is now huge focus with the two camps management teams to prevent hostile moves. Infact it was not talk about mid cap producers but the big boys. Something seems to have clicked in recent weeks and the scale has started to be recognised. The guys were saying that if this was Australia or Chile, you would have multiples explorers/ companies on this site the sheer scale is hard to take in. MOD having now to ramp up exploration in response to possible vultures and are negotiating with MTR to increase rig count by 4 plus on T3 Dome. T3, the "starter project" is going incredibly well. Very confident at resource upgrade next month will support expansion case with significant move from inferred to indicated and T3 underground results excellent and confident that yr 2 plus production around 45ktpa but again kept on emphasising that this was just a small starter! Very, very hard to get head around sheer scale and Ivanhoe potential. It was Mining Book Guy,s You tube clip that got me hooked in the first place when he compared Kalahari belt to Ivanhoe, and talking to Jacques and Steff that seemed to be confirmed.
Thanks as always Forest for excellent post/find. You tube clip really reinforces the huge potential of the area. There are so many positives going on and potentially life changing implications for shareholders!
Thank you Big Minnow for posting. Really reconfirms the potential share price move for both MOD and hence MTR. It explains the stagnation in the share price and the catalyts for the re rate. MOD have identified 7 main targets at just the T3 Dome. 4 of which have almost un - nerving similarities to T3 ! Thats a 4 in 1 chance of hitting another T3 type structure. If succesful, we can begin to look at a district sized project and that is when the bigger players will really show interest. Well worth a read.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycSV1BQhQFA Sorry may be easier!
youtube.com/watch?v=ycSV1BQhQFA � Puts the potential into perspective!!!
Would MTR be worth if we found another T3 within the greater T3 Dome? You just have to look rationally at the chances, 7 highly prospective targets in a highly prospective region, and still only a very small fraction of the overall licence area. I would strongly suggest that the chances are pretty high and if that is why both Argonaut and Blue Ocean believe that the area has the potential to host not 1 but multiple T3 type deposits. So How Much? �100m, �200m. ? Certainly if in the next weeks a trading halt is announced and another deposit found then all bets are off, the majors will be looking at a District sized potential and that is when you are looking at lifechanging money. How many other investments have current shareprice underpinned by existing discovery, cash in the bank and no fear of dillution, with the prospect of an intial 7 high priority targets in an area known to be conducive for copper, then on to the real jewel T20, have lost count of the number of targets there!
Momentum restarting, just need assays out and the Revised Resource Upgrade which should cement the Expansion case as the new Base Case. So much news this Summer at a time when everything else goes quiet. MTR should be in focus! Long overdue!
Jacques, the Development and Marketing head of MOD is presenting at the Shares Event Saturday week in Walsall. It will be a great opportunity to sit down with him over a beer and chat through the "on the ground" basics of Botswana, To get a real feel for the project, the sense of where we are and gut feeling re the exploration campaign as well as the T3 project incl underground etc... Will feed back, but hopefully a number of posters here will be attending.
Vitali, Really good post thankyou. Again reinforces the district scale of the Copper region. Next 6 months will be all about exploration!
Sorry that Broker rating was for Feb16! Sometimes LSE a bit Scew -wif!
Yes, Share consolidation very positive as a number of institutions, particularly US are reluctant to invest in multi billion share companies. Agree Bolgas, ducks are lining up. Just re read the Argonaut report for what must be the 10th time, just answering a question re T3 underground. But also helped to remind myself of the huge District potential. The chances of finding not just 1 but multiple T3,s is considerable. Should commence drilling T3 dome in the next week to 10 days and then exploration begins in earnest. So much potential and so much newsflow. Just need to look out towards next 6 to 9 months.!
Really good observation. Credit where credit is due! Thankyou. Same Its a duster. My view for what it is worth is that anyone looking afresh at MOD and hence MTR will see a degree of comfort in T3 and the commercial numbers. The variant is the price of Copper and it is a copper play. If you, like me believe in Glencore, HP Billiton and Goldman Sach,s view that Copper will be nearer $8,000 early /mid 19 then you are looking at a very attractive asset. The other variable, as you point out is the potential for underground both within T3 and T1. If those come off, as Argonaut have projected the mine could produce circa 50ktpa from year 3/4. But the real motivation for a new investor is the district sized potential. The Kalahari copper belt sits between the Congo and Zambia, the reasonable potential for a Cupric Canyon series of deposits over a broad area is compelling. The delay in exploration for the past 12 to 18 months has meant focus has been on T3 and although understandable has diverted attention away from the sheer scale of the prospect. If all that MOD had was T3 with very little possibility of further exploration success then I would agree mainly with your point and value etc... but if you believe in the chance of further T3 sized deposits then 6p or 10p would be readily surpassed as at that stage it would be a T/O target.