Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
2 x 100,000 ! back of sofa stuff now!
162 as always sanity and insight! Absolutely spot on. This is going to be absolutely life changing , For the first 2 Domes to hit is exceptional, just how many targets can a small explorer like MOD cope with whilst at the same time progress the T3 pit. I cannot think of any other explorer with such huge upside! The question will be , and highlighted in the last page of MOD presentation, how long will the Majors give MOD to prove up before they jump!
Have expected some sort of placing, as MTR has so many projects on the go and with KML it is being stretched. Can now fully particpate in what looks like a once in a life time exploration campaign and after MOD's announcement I cannot see the Major's letting MOD get past Christmas! Fantastic result and just the beginning. A1 a real surprise ! Great Day!
In Walsall I had a long chat with Steff the CFO of MOD. The key concern that I had/have is funding for T3 Pit and equity raise. Stef said that the Management at MOD had two specific objectives short term on the corporate side. Firstly to protect against a low ball offer from a predator ( hence JV ) and secondly to instigate a significant re rating of the MOD share price so that any dillution would be "relatively insignificant". He said that the management we aware that this would only occur through exploration success. I suspect that we will now see, post a phenomenal Anns, either tonight or tommorrow, that MOD will really go all out on the PR and the exploration. In reality they need to urgently as at 40 odd Cents they are way, way below being able to fund the equity portion without severely dilluting the company and the directors own 15% shareholding! At the time Steff hinted at a 20c shareprice (now $2 ) as the target , which was indeed reflected in the Blue Ocean note. For me this target is why I am here and as Bonker and 162 have stated many times to have retained 30% of the main equity mover in exploration and circa 20% of MOD is incredible. At AS$2 the correspoinding MTR share price will hit Bonkers low to mid teens!
If A4 , as we suspect mirrors T3, it is not only a huge result but commercially will be a gamechanger, T1 which is designed to feed T3 is 20km away. A4 is only 6km!!! I suspect that MOD will have to go back to the drawing board with the current DFS and look at an intial plant capable of producing 5 to 6mtpa with bolt on's!
Think the silence from some people will be golden. Well done Bonker for your resoluteness. This is just the begining of our life changing experience. !
I have a real gut feeling that by the middle of next week we will all be thanking Bonker for all his incredibly hard work and insight and there will be a real silence from others.
If/when A4 comes in the implications for the hold project will be enormous. For the past 20 months plus MOD,s mind set and the shareholders has been focused upon T3 pit etc... Now exploration will take centre stage and the MOD management will face enormous pressure to ramp up exploration. 8 rigs with this many targets each potentially holding significant deposits if the AEM pathfinder technique is proven will takes years to discover. We are already 2 months plus into the T£ Dome campaign and are awaiting first official results on the first hole in the first dome! I can see quite quickly a re rate on the MOD share price with A4 which will allow a further fund raise at say $1 plus to really bulk up the number of rigs and support staff. T20 /T23 and T4 are approximately 3 x size of T3 Dome. You could be looking at dozens of Dome type targets! Unbelievable, Life changing!
162 Fantastic post thank you. News must be really close you can almost taste it!
No Thailand please! I think as Bonker has said Botswana is going to be a company maker.
If A4 comes in just take a moment to remember where you were at the time and what you were doing! It will for many people and families be the beginning of something potentially life changing!
The A4 target for anyone that has the ability to read is 6km from the T3 pit. A1 is 20km.
If A4 comes in its multiplying effect upon the T3 pit and Mine will be extraordinary. Currently at $3 copper the Expansion case Nav ( soon to become new base case ) will be circa $400m. Assuming that T1 and T3 underground can provide commercial feeder deposits , which it appears to be the case, production will likely increase to circa 40ktpa. Now A4 if anywhere near a combination of T1/T3 underground and T3 / you would be looking at a mine capable of producing anywhere in the region of 50-60ktpa. the close ness of A4 to T3 pit (6 km) would make the commercial breakeven incredibly attractive with only needing one site and simple bolt ons to cope with increased production. The Nav for such a project would easily exceed $1bn ! Just take a look at Sandfire Resources for a comparison. The fact that MTR is an investment company with a minimum share of 20% in the entire project, considerably greater dependent upon split of project value over existing and exploration is neither here nor there. It is all about the Resource. I am sure we will all know who is right within the next few days/weeks. But one thing is for sure we are talking about multiples of where we are now, the only ? is how many multiples!
I believe iMMc was involved in presentations to funds this past week and we may at last begin to see some pay off. When I spoke to MMC at the London event in April he reitareted that Funds were looking for two main things regarding MTR. A market cap of £25m + to fit into their investing protocol and secondly for a JV and clarity in relationship with MOD. Both things have now occurred. I suspect the freefloat is now pretty tight and with such a modest market cap it won,t take much for an institution building a modest stake to have a multiplying effect on the Share Price. All we need are the drilling results!
I think Bonks and tones 77777 are spot on. This is a once in a life time opportunity that we have all jumped into at a critical time. The past18 months or so have discouraged many investors together with the langusihing share price of both MOD and MTR. However the fundamentals have just got better and better. The T3 pit is a means to commercialisation, this cannot be under estimated as many explorers find a resource only to fall by the wayside as builing and extracting become unviable either due to finances or logistics. MOD has achieved this in record time. But the real key is the AEM technology and Jacques modelling. This means that MOD do not need to drill all the targets to get a huge payout, which I am absolutely confident they will take ( regardless of public mutterings ). If A4 comes in and either A1 or A9, and the AEM in T20 shows similar dome like structures a Major like RIO of BHP will make an offer that just cannot be refused. For all the reasons Bonker has brilliantly outlined over many months. The MOD management are no fools and are aware of the scale and the limit of funds to exploit. They are seasoned campaigners and this is their last hurrah. The beauty of this is that we should know in the next 4 to 6 weeks if A4 has come in, if so. It isn,t about a twin of T3 it is about a District sized prize and it may just be too big for one Major to handle!
Huge vote of confidence by the Chairman!
The JV deal is focusing on one thing. Exploration. We are now awaiting numerous drill results and these are stacking up
with time passing. It is calculated each drill takes 3 weeks or so , 30 metres a day. We now have 5 exploration rigs and 6 to 8 weeks of full on drilling, yet only 2 intial results albeit incredibly positive. We know copper is there, the Kalahari basin is awash with it, the question is whether it is economic. I firmly believe results are being held back due to the sensitivity of the JV calculation and the balance between T3 value and exploration value. If another hit had been announced on A4 or A1/A9 that negotiated balance ( that had taken more than 5 months ) would have become a moving target. We are now past that and I wouldn,t be surprised if results start coming thick and fast from next week. Just need A4 confirmation and Bonker's will have to redo those time consuming calculations again!
Lazy, I respect your view point. The negotiation has gone on for the best part of 12 months at least I understand and is complicated. We must remember that MTR is the non operator and junior partner and hence beholden to MOD's timescales. Hence the huge frustration in the delays in permitting etc... This deal clearly provides an immediate boost to MTR's balance sheet, negates the potential for dillution to fund the T3 project going forward and still allows upside via MOD SP. AS 162 has pointed out the real value will only out in a Take Over, and that has always been the case. The re rating of the SP for both MOD and MTR will realistically only come from exploration success which will reinforce the value of T3 as the T3 pit will provide a blue print to commercialisation. I fully expect this argument re relative value to be short lived as Assay and drilling updates start to draw attention away from T3, superb as it is, towards the realisation of the District sized potential. This is a potentially life changing share and today was on crucial step in professionalising that potential. If provides options to the companies to spin off assets or as most if not all of us would wish to be taken out by a major at a huge premium once we have been given the time to prove up at least T3 Dome. I do no personally think we have a hope in hell in being allowed to prove up T20, if A4 and A1 or A9 hit a Major will step in and take a view on the rest of the massive acerage and todays arguments will be long gone. The numbers will be eye watering!!
Lazygun, having met with Stef in Walsall, the key concerns were twofold. Firstly a JV swop would be required fro funding purposes for the T3 project and secondly both Management teams were actutely aware that MOD was vulnerable to a predator who could take them out with a low ball offer. The JV should be seen in this context. MTR have 20% of the T3 project without any funding requirements going forward and thus remove the fear of dillution and restriction on investing in other ventures , JV's. BUT and it is a huge BUT , MTR still own 30% of the exploration upside, which I suspect will dwarf the eventual value of T3. If as you say MTR have given up a huge slice in T3 for a relatively small sum ( I disagree but am repeating your argument) , why is the market valuing MOD at such a lowly level. The market knows that MOD will only recieve due consideration for T3 if it can have a route to fund and that requires 100% control ( or at least 90%) but also that T3 is part of a much larger District sized prize. I genuinely believe this is a superb deal, but as I posted earlier will only come alive and be recognised if in the coming weeks we start to get confirmed drilling results.
The deal just announced will come into its own when we get a confirmation on one of the drills and the potential becomes a relaity on the Domes and wider district sized prize. Assay confirmation will not only identify whats beneath the ground it will as 162 has been pushing for an age, it will confirm the pathfinder technique of AEM. The impact for MTR will then be huge, as we still own 30% of that upside but now 20% of MOD! It is a win ,win! T3 provides the blueprint to monetise the deposit , but it is still only a "small starter project", according to MOD Management, the real potential is the remaining acerage and we should start to hear about this very soon, now the JV is out of the way! Life changing potential!