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The purchse by Oz for around $400m (AUS) bodes really well for MOD. the production excl Gold was 14ktpa. MOD is looking at around 28ktpa with expansion case and obviously significant upside both at T3 with underground etc... and the huge exploration programme. Articles mention Oz trying to get to 50ktpa ( excl Gold ) which is the projection Argonaut has for T3 assuming underground comes in. When we are at low spirits at 2p it is worth seeing how the market really values producing assets. Within 9 months we will be at DFS and with a line of sight to production with significant exploration finds. How many multiples of 2p will that be worth?!!!
Really, really positive update of current and imminent drilling campaign. Really puts into perspective what the next 9 months or so holds. Huge amount of news, we just need to get through the next couple of weeks. Thankfully MOD now fully funded, Incredible potential ,well worth the read!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/25/miners-launch-bid-avert-punishing-new-taxes-drc/ Interesting article. Makes Botswana all the more attractive!
Bonker as usual together with 162 absolutely spot on. Crazy Share Price but for those patient enough to wait 6 to 9 months , you have to be looking at multiples. cannot find any company out there with so many catalysts. News could drop anytime and then the flood gates will open.
http://www.mining.com/charts-show-just-copper-price-fundamentals-strong/ To get into up and coming top 20, 200ktpa. Now according to Argonaut the potential of underground mining at just T3 would bring production to 60ktpa. ! They also state highly likely multiple T3 in Kalahari permit. If that is the case you will be looking at a multi $bn valuation. Just an idea of what MOD/MTR could be sitting on. Within the next 9 months we should have a fair idea. Well worth the wait and frustration !.
I think it highly likely a JV with THR on Pilot Mountain if we imminently have Equity/JV agreement with MOD. Release funds to support Pilot Mountain JV. A plan seems to be developing. MOD raising more funds than expected and at a time when Share price supressed and still considerable funds avaliable. MTR increasing stake in THR to over 12% and with 3 month window to jv on THR projects. Surely both must be linked.?
Suspect its part of the corporate action negotiations highlighted by Bonker/162.
Quite often a share will have some really positive news, spike and then deflate, maybe not to original, pre news level, but deflate. The beauty of MTR is that the news flow , once it really starts, will be fairly continuous and price sensitive. There are so many catalysts. This share requires patience and perspective but is,nt for fractions of a penny it is for many multiples of that. T-Rex drilling results, T1 ( MOD) T3 Dome, T20, T7 T2 T4. Underground scoping study, Resource upgrade, .... Thailand .... and the corporate event. I honestly cannot imagine any company that has such downside protection as MTR and with such a wide-ranging, number of catalysts, anyone of which could re rate the share. Quite often a share will have one chance, a drill success or failure, a corporate decision like GGP, But MTR has multiple , it has the time and the funds in place. All that it requires is patience and perspective and then the herd will arrive.
As I understand it, for debt finance to be commercial the Issuer needs to own at least 90% and Operate the project. MTR own 30% and c6% of MOD. As Bonker/162 point out 25% shareownership maximum. MOD don,t have funds to buy MTR stake in part only exchange for equity. The 6% leaves 19% avaliable. Would MM swap JV 30% for 19%?. How much are 100% MOD licences worth? T1 particularly? How much is the removal of a funding requirement to the JV worth to MTR? i Assume MTR would have Board representation. I suspect MTR staying at 6% and not increasing even though funds avaliable and MOD at 12 month lows points in direction that negotiation really agreed in principle that JV 30% is exchanged for 19/20% in MOD. The discount may seem significant but as can be seen with Rockhopper and PMO not being operator has really negative consequences. As Bonker/162 have calculated the immediate effect would be dramatic on the MTR balance sheet, But as we all know this is just the beginning. If T-Rex , T1 and Underground scoping study come in, We are looking at a $1bn mine commencing in mid 2020 , 25% of that for just $10m present value! Let alone the exploration potential!
Thanks Forest, just read this. excellent early summary. Explains why MOD undertook the fund raise. Fear of losing parts of the huge licence. Really good news as exploration is where the real re rate will happen.
Explains that recent capital raising coming from pressure by Bots Govt to get on with exploration drilling and fulfil commitments. Really good news.
http://www.modresources.com.au/ Really worth a watch, just posted on website
I really empathise. I am not dissimilar. I genuinely believe that MTR offers an absolutely huge upside. Not because of MM or the BOD of MTR but because Botswana is just one piece of luck that comes around now and again and if you catch it you are incredibly lucky. The ground appears to be offering up huge opportunity, the figures by Blue Ocean and Argonaut are multiples of where we are now. It is just a matter of proving up. Infact MOD have more targets than they can handle ! The key concern for me is if MOD and MTR had the funds to exploit. That concern was alleviated on Friday with the fund raise announcement. It now is just a matter of time. MOD are incredibly experienced team and have been here before. They are being incredibly prudent taking a two track approach. Prove up T3, get the PFS and DFS underway and create a base line value. But the real jewel is the exploration, If only a fraction comes in, ( which I don,t believe , i honestly feel the majority will be succesful ) there will be at least 1 more T3 type asset. That would give a Nav of over $1bn US. Discount back and that would give MTR a 12 p to 15p share valuation. If as I believe there will be multiple T3,s then you could be looking at multiples of that. There are no fingers crossed or assumptions beyond our control. Factors like Copper Price, Botswana infrastructure, politics etc... are incredibly supportive. It will just take a relatively short period of time. My focus is 10 to 12 months. With catalysts and re rating along the way.
If we all take a step back from the day to day price movements, odd % of a 1p! and look at what MOD/MTR are about. in the Spring of 17 the companies allocated $10m to a wideranging drilling campaign to prove up T3 and to look at T1 and T20. The cmapign itself has only really just started but has shown such potential combined with the resurgence on the Copper Price to warrant a doubling of that original budget to a total of around $30m! What we need to ask ourselves is not what % of a1p is the shareprice doing today or yesterday or tomorrow , but in my gut having read and watched all the prsentations etc... what do I feel the project will achieve by year end. ( 10 months away). ? If you believe as I do, and certainly the companies management and Rick Rule and Blue Ocean and Argonaut and the II,s that have just taken up the MOD placement, do. that there is a significant possibility of proving up a district sized copper belt, that will be work not % of 1p, not �1m or �10m to the MTR share price but potentially �100m,s + . Have a look at the asset value of other Tier 1 mines . You are talking about $billions. look at what Cupric Canyon have found with acerage half or a third of ours. It is just a matter of when not if. MOD,s fundraise was an endorsement of the project. It was double what I had expected and I suspect Indaba gave both managemnt teams a signal from the investment community and from other bigger players that there is huge interest in Botswana and that all the teams needed to do was to prove up. I genuinely believe that we are looking at Life changing money here. But we need to switch off from the daily %,s and just wait for the drills to come in.
Yes huge sum, $18m. If "majority for exploration" we can assume with MTR,s 30% contribution a $20m additional campaign . Thats double the $10m that was earmarked last spring. I think Bonker, as usual spot on, that MOD are looking to prove up as much as possible towards year end and with EIA and DFS have an incredibly valuable Tier 1 project ready to market. When someone mentioned $20m raise a couple of days ago I thought that was twice the amount I was expecting. But they were almost spot on. This is going to be a huge campaign. Very likely a dozen or so rigs at least. Just now need to see what T-Rex holds to give a bit of uplift and renewed colour! Fantastic news!
The Reality is that MOD has put its stool out and by raising what looks like a significant amount on the back of last years $10m commitment, to explore the district sized potential of Botswana acreage. MOD Board of Directors come across as a fairly conservative lot and have secured through the PFS a really valuable site and project at T3. If you look at the early 2017 presentation by Julian Hanna , he is talking about the potential of 2.5mtpa and a possible $3 copper price in 1919/20. A Nav of around $280m. Why not settle on proving up more infill drilling,? continue with a robust DFS? the current huge drilling campaign of 8 rigs has another 10 months to run and really has barely started due to EM permissions being delayed. Why now raise and go for an even greater exploratory campaign? There can be only one reason and that is the potential is becoming a reality and the feedback from Indaba must have been such to warrant a real ramping up of what is currently a huge drilling campaign. The Board and team must be confident to take this step change as if they look back to 12 months ago they could only have dreamed to have got this far. This is a hugely important decision and has in my opinion completely changed the outlook of the project, from being a potentially medium sized producer to looking towards a district sized tier 1 asset.
I cannot see this at less than 5c , hopefully higher. MOD currently trading at lower end of range. The Fund raise , as per ASX release confirms EXPANSION of current drilling campaign T3 and T20 Dome. MOD have sufficient funds for the existing drilling commitments which included T3 and T20. You would only expand a campaign if the news is positive. So we can assume that T-Rex and AEM over T21 are such and that the placing and results are all part of the same package, otherwise why not wait and release the positive results and get a placing away at 6c plus ?.
I suspect we are entering a period of risk off in equity markets , whilst pardoxically ( as long as Trump behave himself! ) the real economy is gaining strength and with inflation the outlook for commodities , as we know, is itself rebasing. Investors that have had an easy ride with FTSE100 companies will, I am sure now look to move part of their PF,s into Commodity focused companies with strong fundamentals and balance sheets. All we need is a couple of 10% plus days, running against the general market to get noticed. Thanks to Bonker and 162 and their excellent charts/blog this is happening but still, from the 20 odd posts a day on LSE MTR is still very much under the radar! At �20m odd it won,t take much interest to re rate substantially.
Sorry Keith, good point. Bonker and 162, are far more knowledgeable than me and both have been saying for some time that there will be a JV/equity swap. This makes real sense but I am unsure of the timing. All I know is that whatever the outcome on Tuesday this is the beginning of something huge. MM is a pretty smart cookie and both he and Rick Rule will only countenance an equity swap on the right terms and that , as Bonker says, will involve Sprott themselves playing a leading role and funding.
I don,t think this is any old capital raise by MOD. It signifies an even greater expansion and expediting of the T3 and T20 Dome. This is hugely significant as MOD have said that it has sufficient funds to the existing drilling programme. I believe that two things have happened to change this and both are incredibly positive. Firstly the interest in the project from Indaba and secondly that the assay results overdue from T- Rex and the AEM on T21 have been incredibly positive. This to me is hugely significant as we are now looking at exploration outside of the T3 PFS. This is where the real money will be made. I really believe that the next 9 months or so could be lifechanging for investors.