Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Typo!
With Silver starting to break out and analysts putting projections of an upside anywhere between $50 and $130 , MTR's mothballed Thai assets could start to become very valuable. Combined with PAM's imminent listing there could be the potential of a tie up? Exchange of asset for significant equity interest, even element of silver streamiing to get mine back into production after resource drilling.
The key for me is how MTR are going to manage the NSR. It is a nice problem to have but for a small market cap company it will take some thought as how to present. With the imminent Maiden Resource we should get a base level NSR Value. But then the tricky bit starts in trying to extrapolate not only the increase in value on the first A4 zone as we get closer to production from T3 , but then if SF prove up the NE extension and then Zone B and then the multiple other Dome targets currently either being scout drilled or prioritised by SF. You could be looking at a possible value many multiples of where we are now over the next few years. The key I believe is not the actual resource but how MTR handles the presentation of that value.
https://www.resourcesrisingstars.com.au/news-article/sandfire-boosting-botswana-budget
Good summary of latest SF presentation . Key takeaway is that SF are agressively exploring and will add to budget to follow success. This means that the NSR is only going one way! re Share consolidation. I would normally agree with Lazy Gun's view but quite often such a corporate decision still opens up the fear of further dillution down the road. This will not be the case with MTR. I suspect the primary motive is that MTR will now be actively targeting family offices and institutional funds as the comapny starts to reap the rewards of its renewed strategy, The liquidity of its Sandfire interest, the growing solidarity of its NSR value and the huge upside possibility of the three key exploration plays in KML, Cobre and SAU.
https://www.bigmarker.com/read-corporate/Resources-Rising-Stars-Virtual-Investor-Forum3-2020-05-27-10-30-am?bmid=a5b71834b6cf
Excellent and really enthusiastic view of T3 and particularly A4 from KS of Sandfire. Highlights. 10 to 12 rigs on A4 by end of June. $20m exploration budget and intention to bring A4 Resource into T3 production within 12 months of T3 commencing. Huge implications for NSR value!
Thanks Forest for posting. Just listened. Incredible "Blue Sky" Potential. Key takeaway is that much of the hard yards have been done through MOD/MTR JV which can now be appreciated. Sandfire aggressively drilling with 7 rigs (once Botswana reopens) and this is likely to increase. Looking at the ground A4 could be substantially bigger than T3. If that was the case with higher grades MTR's 2% NSR could be between $40m and $50m! Add the immediate re across to KML. Then the many immediate targets the potential value could be multiples of that!
Illaquens, thankyou for your two posts. Likewise completly agree with everything you have said. I have been an investor for a couple of years and can understand the scepticism of the PI community to MTR and its history. The strategy of the company since the sale of MOD holdings is to become a "Prospect Generator" and although huge strides have been made in the background MTR have been very slow to communicate this consistently. The Investors Chronicle Article a few months ago, provided a foretaste of potential even though the gamechanging potential value of NSR wasn,t really included !. This absence of a clear and consistent message by Management, first and foremost promoted by an uptodate website, has been my main concern. But I believe this is being addressed and Management are aware I am sure that the story needs to be told and strategy promoted continuously. Cobre and SAU are phenominal dealsthanks to Michael McNeilly and contacts of Terry Gammer. KML could be a gamechanger as well with the read across from A4 and holding circa 62% means almost all value enhanced returns to MTR. I can see MTR re rating multiple times over the coming 12 months. I am hoping this hiatus due to the Pandemic has given the Board time to concentrate on corporate matters, the website and communication not only to sceptical PI's but also the Institutional funds, particularly those that would like access to the potential of Cobre and SAU but unable to access ASX. I can also see MTR vulnerable to a bigger player as the potential starts to be recognised. Fortunately the share register seems to be pretty tightly held and so it could be very expensive!
There is a thesis gaining traction that A4 could potentially be larger than T3. It is highly unusual to see such high grades at such a shallow depth. In retrospect it could be argued that if, as it seems, the zone continues, the Mine should have been located at A4 rather than T3. The impact of this for MTR is absolutely transformational. The NSR would conceivably have a value of circa $50m and the cross over to KML is substantial. Although currently diregarded for obvious reasons within the Pi community the inherent value of yesterdays RNS has caught the attention of the industry Geo's. I suspect MTR 's shareprice will be rewarded in the next 6 months as a maiden resource is published and the company is encouraged to get an indicative NSR value. Having said that if KML hits at Kit E then all bets are off !. Unbelievable that A4 could even begin to take the shine off of Cobre and SAU!
In a strange way the market collapse and panic ( for very good reason) , could be a real positive for MTR if , as I believe, the imminent Cobre assay and visuals are as outstanding as hoped. Investors will be looking for anything that provides a light and good news , similar to the IC article, will be seen against a backdrop of all the negativity. It will put MTR back on the map.
Really good news. Building an incredible stable of assets. Taken a long time and still significant firepower left. I suspect Managemnt will hold fire now and just get to grips with the corporate side ( hopefully website and interviews and talking to institutions) and bedding in understanding of projects. It looks like we now have 3 potential company makers, and we may even be surprised once Thailand wakes up. !
I don,t see why being an investment company would prohibit a takeover. Would allow a bigger player to obtain a strategic investment/holding in an attractive project or series of projects. Ie Sandfire could be smarting at not bidding for Cobre and to buy in on market would be hugely expensive as it is finding with Adriatic. Add KML and the KCB acerage and there may be a compelling case. The question would be if SF could afford the price?
Lazygun. Completely agree with our post. The damage inflicted over the past two years with MOD related fund raises has increased the shares in issue from circa 1.1bn to 1.55bn. To draw a line under any further fundraises is a huge positive both for individual investors but potentially even more so for institutions. I really hope that as the underlying assets are given time to add value with the positive sentiment you clearly identify, the Board continue to buyback thus reinforcing confidence. I also hope that as A4 is proving up MTR will carry out an independent valuation of the NSR. On a related tangent I can also see MTR being on the radar of a larger player should Cobre meet the really high expectations.
Sorry 10% is 155m,
DP The management have stated that they have the authority to buyback up to 10% of the issued share capital. That is roughly 145m! The buyback has only just secured 7%of that 10%! So it would be a real spike (and dump) for the shareprice to re rate significantly on .7% of shares being taken out of circulation. Realistically I see management prudently allowing January to unfold with announcements and as value is created keep the buyback funds in reserve. Then recalibrating the NAV and recommencing the buyback. All a show of confidence. MTR is , I believe now for the next 12 to 18 months and yours and my paper losses will begin to dissipate , bot on a sudden spike that is sold into, but on a sustainable re rate.
DontPanick, I can undersatnd your frustration and I know how your posts are normally supportive and I enjoy reading them. I too am sitting on a substantial loss (circa45%) at present. However I believe the Share buyback is part of a process of re calibrating MTR over 20/20 into a "Prospect Generator", that will, as projects are announced and results from exploration come in, begin to pheonix itself out of its malaise. The share buyback will I hope be a continuous underpin with the £500k being the first of a number of funds given to Arden with a rebasing of the target price as the underlying value of the projects becomes recognised. There is much news to come, Cobre, KML Kit E exploration, Sandfire A4 and T1 exploration drilling adding value to the NSR, Thailand, and I am confident other cornerstone investments which are currently being D/D. I am also hoping that by the end of the first quater Management will have put in place the new website and started to plan a series of roadshows with the cerdibility that it will now have underpinning its proposition. The share buyback for me is not really about price at the moment but about reducing slowly the shares in issue and Management having the confidence to listen to shareholders, to recognise that the Board can build a portfolio of highly prospective assets whilst at the same time distribute cash through a buyback and undo some of the significant damage previous fundraises have caused and are now assigned to history.
Imp 1 . From my understanding the imminent listing of MOD on the LSE will have a two fold effect, firstly increase liquidity, which is pretty abysmal on the ASX for Copper plays, particularly African ones but also open MOD up to a much more favourable climate. LSE traditionally favours Miners and has sympathy with most jurisdictions. There are also only a few other players in the smaller copper play and you can see the effect Solgold has had with its listing. A significant number of Resource funds have protocols explicitly excluding ASX as an exchange. I can really see a positive effect for MOD with this move a fresh approach at a time when the A4 results are coming in and T3 pit is going from strength to strength. The knock on effect for MTR is self evident.
Excellent post Casey Jones. Mod and hence MTR in orphan phase of what is developing into a fantastic project in T3 pit, with huge exploration upside. We just have to be patient. MOD have confirmed again in the last few days that March will see DFS and everything is going to plan. I suspect we will shortly see another resource upgrade now T3 underground has been completed and imminent A4 Assays confirming that a substantial resource is in situ just 6 to 8 km from the T3 plant. At 1.5 % copper this resource could end up doubling throughput to circa 50 -60ktpa. giving a Nav of $1bn plus. ! We just have to switch offf from the noise and make our own decisions as to fundamentals and time horizons. Is the risk worth the wait? I know where I stand and I haven,t heard or read anything except good and at times outstanding news from MOD regarding T3 pit and the ensuing exploration campaign.
Very solid update. Grid power extension now commencing construction, will have significant cost savings. EISA on track and strong hint that base case may move up to 3.5mt which will boost production to circa 30-35ktpa and a Nav in the region of $400m!. Just need finance to be firmed up and I suspect with JH's Chinese connections there will be some Chinese involvement ( smelters) which should significantly assist in reducing dillution. Unfortunately Investors missing the fact that potential is rapidly moving to actual now!
Thanks Joe. I am only thankful that this board has someone like you to provide such pearls of wisdom!
I hope that doesn,t sound too patronising. I think someone like you would be the last person to tolerate patronising.
Rick Rule, could have been speaking directly about MOD/MTR in his interview. The bit I specifically liked was reference to small Explorers where he said Buyouts they target are at 10 x and bear no relationship to share prices unlike larger players that have 10's of analysts and tend to be linked to premium to share price. If MOD announce imminent A4 assays that confirm thesis of district scale I think the clock will start ticking . My target is Spring next year and A takeout of MOD circa $2.00 plus.