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Sorry Joe I forgot I should have cleared my mis leading post through your experienced eye. Thanks for the heads up.! I,m sure Rick Rule would also appreciate your foresight too! Well done, won,t make that mistake again Phew!
The imminent exploration campaign at T3 dome and particularly T20 should be transformational. This is the reason Rick Rule got on board. T3 great and reassuring as an underpin, but the real jewel is to prove up the district scale. For Rick Rule to believe the acreage has a very high chance of yielding a tier 1 mine, gives huge credibility to the thesis. A tier 1 mine is incredibly rare and worth multiple $bn,s. ! The frustration at the delay in permitting the drilling etc... has one silver lining and that is allowing the MOD Geo's to carry out considerable preparatory work and this will allow priority drill targets in what is a huge area. T20 has a 60km Zinc anomaly! Almost unheard of. Parallel to the exploration T3 will continue to derisk . Infill resource results in the next couple of weeks should see the expansion case comfortably proven and a strong surprise in T1 and T3 underground could very likely bring projected production up to around 50ktpa. At $3 copper that would produce a NAV of around $750m! $3.30 copper and you are talking nearer $1bn. There are so many positives , but we are in the ugly stage, when you go back before you go forward. However the road map has been laid out now, delays are behind us and within the next 12 months the only question being answered is , Is the project worth $1bn or multiple $bn. You can buy a 30% share in that today for just 2p with very, very little downside.
Hi Keith, I am attending and I know of at least half a dozen more MTR investors who will be there so good to meet up and have a drink.
Apologies for delay in posting following my meeting with MM on Saturday at Shares Event. It was incredibly humid and we met just before presentation. MM did genuinely seem tired and having spoken to some of the team on the stand, everyone is extremely busy and there were not enough hours in the day. This was the primary reason for the updated and refreshed website being sidelined , although work had been done, simply because of priorities, this will be rolled out and everything will be made evident why there had been a delay. The same for Investor roadshows. I really got nothing new from Michael, except that there was a huge amount going on that could not at thi stage be made public but that the company was absolutely delighted with Botswana, that he thought the PFS was overly conservative and that T20 was the real focal point. The company had got a lot of interest from Mines and Money Hong Kong and had built a good relationship with Argonaut the brokers. All the nuts and bolts questions that I wanted top ask about, number of drills, assay turnarounds etc... seemed trivial compared to the impression MM was giving that things were moving and as Bonker/162 have highlighted you don,t have to be a rocket scientist to work out what is foremost on the companies agenda. It is simply a matter of which variable and which path the company takes with MOD. The real impression I got was not what was said but what wasn,t and although not the meeting I was expecting I was reassured. I suspect everything will be out in the open in the next couple of months as timelines are tightening and post the Resource upgrade a bankable feasability study on the expansion case can then be put to the financiers. The banks will want to know what JV structure they are dealing with.
I am really sorry but any poster here should click and see your posting history on MTR! I think you made the same prediction Nov16 and November 17th !
As promised I am attending tomorrow and will be meeting directors at the stand and a 1 to 1 with MM. I will feed back anything relevant to this board and will obviously have questions that reflect most of our concerns as well as the positives. Have a real feeling the next two months will see many questions answered!
I think the major catalyst externally will be the Resource upgrade to T3 targeting early mid May, barely a few weeks away. Assays first on remaining 34(?) holes, but both Argonaut and Blue Ocean feel with the results already provided between August and January that the expansion case looks comfortable. It really is only a matter of time and to get through the boredom and frustration. Internally there is huge things going on that we can, with the help of Bonker/162, assume will re rate the share. I am attending the Investor show on Saturday and have a one to one with MM, I will feed back to the forum. We all know the potential here is huge. T3 expansion at $400nav. The exploration campaign, MOD, Argonaut and Blue Ocean feel very confident that there will be AT LEAST one more T3 type deposit discovered which will at current copper prices bring the NAV to $1bn! Not pie in the sky but just time and patience. !
It has been a hugely frustrating few months. The fundamentals get stronger but the shareprice stagnates. Anyone seriously invested has done their research by now. this isn,t a one hit wonder or pump and dump. It requires understanding as MTR doesn,t do itself any favours in explaining what its underlying thesis is about. I am meeting with MM on Saturday and have already spoke to him on a number of occasions that regardless of all the fundamental positives it is public perception that is failing. When PI,s have so many alternative companies with which to invest their hard earned money why should someone have to carry out significant research to get to the bottom of what is a phenominally prospective company and series of assets. I would rather the company do the right things interms of the underlying assets than focus on the PR and potential , like GGP and continuous twitter posts by CEO's and not back this up with the underlying asset. MTR, on any rational basis is completely undervalued, there is no fear of forced dillution, a once in a life time project in Botswana, at a time when base metals like Copper are at the beginning of a bull run and investments in a number of highly prospective explorers like THR. Patience required but also a managemnt team that is aware of PR. It is "and, and" not "either or"!
http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/a5d095_068334e3a52a402a80492b9750b3b4ae.pdf Excellent article by Pay Dirt team. May be worth re reading to re confirm what we have infront of ourselves over the next 6 to 9 months.
Had interesting chat yesterday and was informed that MOD have number of additional rigs already on site ready to go as soon as sub contractor gets the nod. So once the 28 day gazetting is concluded I wouldn,t be surprised if the 9 rigs announced is increased significantly. New Minister of Mines hopefully will smooth EMP process and T20 and T4 and T7 get quicker turnaround. Having said that T3 dome only few weeks delay in the end.
2 months or so and a number of questions will be answered. Resource upgrade. 80 more holes drilled with 34 results remaining. If the continuity of results continues, which it appears they do, then 54 drill results = 28mt, so fair to assume another 80 will at least bring in the magic 40mt required for expansion. My gut feeling is that we will get a nice surprise both in terms of grade and production 30ktpa compared to PfFS 28ktpa and an extended mine life. We shall see... Plus all the other bits we know. T1 results underground mine which Argonaut suggest could produce upto 15ktpa. T-REX and the T3 dome. 2p should be a distant memory and we can then focus upon exploration. For me, there was never a good time to raise funds, but MOD are fully funded and it is always about results with the drill bit. MOD have not disappointed so far. This share I have learnt is a slow burn but the coming months should see the proverbial flame.!
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...ts-based-on-pre-feasibility-study-194192.html Succinct and upbeat article. With the underpin of T3 PFS and Blue Ocean and Argonaut targeting a 150% share price increase for MOD without exploration upside it is hard to believe that this is just the beginning. Regardless of the timing of the MOD fund raise the outcome, in the broader scheme of things, is that the project is fully funded both for an incredibly ambitious drilling programme over the next 9 months and a DFS. We need to remember that MTR has not had to dillute thanks to the trading arms profits and that any JV/equity exchange will be post the MOD fund raise. As 162 has said many times T3 at $400m Nav is just a pinprick in the district sized area. T20 to be drilled targeting June/July , has soil sampling considerably more prospective than T3 and twice as large as the T3 dome. A 60 km Zinc anomoly. Hugely exciting and at 2p very little , if any downside risk.
There have been two extensive recent Broker reports, which are worth a read to provide some in depth analysis of where MOD are with Botswana. Both in terms of T3 and the District sized potential. Both Argonaut and Blue Ocean believe, prior to the recent ANN that there is confidence that sufficient inferred resources have been discovered and moved to indicated that the expansion case is nailed on. Indeed there is a strong possibility that the eventual Resource upgrade penned for June may extend the life of the mine and provide higher grades. Most investors were disappointed with the MOD fund raise but I suspect there are things we do not know in the background, and may involve in part the JV/equity swop where MOD will loose MTR,s direct contribution. It would have been a bitter pill to swallow for the fund raise to have occurred post a possible JV/equity conversion. This way MTR shareholders benefit in the round. MTR and MOD are not in my humble opinion about day to day frustrating Share Price moves, but rather are about proving up the district sized resource, we all have a gut feeling lies below. Everything points to that direction and it is only patience that is required. I have seen nothing to make me feel uncomfortable with the management, even though a healthy scepticism is worthwhile.
I am really sorry as I tend to err on the side of courtesy but genuinely as soon as I see you name by a post I switch off! Any valid points you may or may not make are swamped by the patronising tone that you take. Sorry!
The timeline is there , we all know the story. MOD management being incredibly astute and permitting T3 whilst proving up the huge potential of the district sized project. Frustrating and irrational shareprice is one thing but the eventual value of our investment will be determined within the next 12 months as to how much a suitor or suitors are prepared to pay. There is no way MOD will go into production the project is just too big. it is just a matter of keeping our focus on the bigger prize, what is going on in the ground and the increasing rebasing of the copper price. MTR is a hard to underrstand company and doesn,t do itself any favours in its communication but if you , like me are holding out for the big pay day the current shareprice, whilst superficially demoralising and irrational is to be honest irrelevant.
Great news, MOD now have 9 rigs with 4 focusing on T3 dome. Good to see close liason between MOD and the Bots Ministry. Will hopefully pave a smoother and more timely path for T20 and T7 which is incredibly exciting. Hopefully now uninterrupted momentum to the end of the year!
As Bonker has suggested and confirmed by BHP Billiton $5 copper is highly likely to become a base in the next couple of years. Just when T3 is projected to come on stream, The expansion case now appears nailed on and at $5 copper the NAV will be around $1.1bn!!!. Now if Argonaut's underground mining comes in and we are looking at 50-60ktpa you are looking at a NAV of around $2bn plus! That would give MTR a share price at a 50% discount to NAV of around 13p on the expansion case and 27p on the Argonaut expansion plus case! That is at 50% discount to Nav! Add the huge exploration programme and the potential for at least 1 more T3 ( could be multiple ) and you are talking about Monopoly potential!
Really good posts Bonker ( as always) and Pinman. So many catalyst for share price over next 6 to 9 months. I really think the next and final set of Assays will nail on the expansion case and move sufficient resources to indicated and measured. i think the resource upgrade in June will see a mine life extension past 12 years! The NAV is great, but what if copper went to say $3.50 by year end and FID? $500m?!!. What an underpin for a lowly 2p share price! The T3 project is just the beginning. We find one more T3 and you are looking at $1bn Nav, But the prospects are for much more. T3 alone, underground scoping study, T3 dome T1, Could itself reach a Nav of around $800m, according to Argonaut at 55 to 60ktpa! Within 9 months life changing valuation and shareprice and then buy out by a Major. It is just a matter of when not if! So any gloom should be put into perspective. 9 months time and the results will speak for themselves. !
good to see copper finding $3 floor. So much MOD/MTR news to come over next few weeks and months, it will really be like buses! The really good news is that the expected news will, as Bonker points out provide systematic floors under the share price, its currently hugely frustrating but the news period and catalysts are condensing. 9 months time could change many of our lives!