Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Jordan427
When investing in April 2016 in the 40's I did trust him but when selling in Autumn 2016 in the 80's I'm afraid timescales just kept moving too much so it was difficult to have confidence.
However, keep motoring with your view of anyone being outside your own little world is a moron as that kind of multi-faceted view will am sure pay dividends.
The fact I was/am looking at taking a punt again at these levels seems to have escaped you.

Have toyed with dipping my toe back in here after quite some time away and wondering if there is a good presentation link for Brian describing the current drilling programme? Have a bit more faith in him than in JP.

So far ECO less impacted by falling POO as well. However, trying to second guess the market drivers is never easy but looking at fundamentals versus risk should drive value.

Continuing fall is odd indeed, unless ii are selling their non-hedged holdings as they are confident of buying back due to understanding situation on FOIL before the market

Would be surprised by any placing occurring before the first drill is complete or potentially as it spuds. Itnisnt Just the further drilling - it is the costs for preparation of the FFD plan. Don't think we will be around come the FID and need to pay for it to be fair not in Guyana anyway - perhaps in Namibia.

The solution relate to the cost post-19 of continued drilling and/or ramping up Hammerhead to quickly implement an FPSO field solution and monetise the oil flow.

However, given the relative normality.of these fields versus Hurricane Energy, presence of Africa Oil Corp and attractiveness to PE players for yield if FFD can commercialize the development quickly there should be relatively strong demand if Poo plays ball and geo politics don't sent the work into a tailspin.

Funny to see the SP action, as even at $40 oil we generate probably $500k a day once production has been ramped up if testing proceeds as planned. So that is $160m p.a. which on a 7-8x multiple supports current SP even with bondholders conversion.

One would have to think if hook up and the oil flow proceed as planned it should have one direction as we approach new year. Many say it isn't a binary play but if oil doesn't flow as planned it will have a major impact but if it does then to varying degrees it.proves the thesis on 2.5b barrels of 2C oil as being commercial and able to convert to 2P. At a $1.00 a barrel that is still double today's price.

HUR in the market for these from 1st Dec'18 on long term contract.
So gives some idea on ETA of AM on field.

They are betting it will go down as they either Boris stock to sell on the basis they can buy back cheaper or sell now to lock in a latee sale at the conversion price.

Robert Trice of HUR has a saying about how in oil & Gas big fields get bigger. For HUR the original P50 number has doubled and for many is still conservative.
In terms of ECO the various layers which can be explored (as Exxon gave done) means the traps could be much more numerous than current CPR suggests and Iatuk alone be huge.
Being funded for 3 drills in Guyana is fantastic and for either Total (or Exxon) we make alot of economic sense. For Exxon if developing Hammerhead jointly this gives them a majority stake and hence operating control of what might be the biggest field yet on Staebroek

Transocean fleet report gives a good indication of current pricing.so far the majors have been true to their word in not bidding up costs but staff are pushing back (in N.sea anyway).

While there are still a decent number of rigs warm stacked it is a good time to strike and secure drilling capability for sure. I wonder if news of rig contract will be out by Tullow CMD, I think it may be.

So this is French Guyana and looks like a different prospect being drilled. Does however show how quickly a rig can be procured due to the current market and number being warm stacked.

Boyzee
Have done two house renovations in last 5 years and builder on both occasions has recommended a Worcester 38 Cdi- this is for 2,000 sq.ft plus and have had no problems with either (jinxing it here am sure).

So if they can do 3 drills, one having a horizontal split that explores both cretacious and tertiary (a 2 for 1 if you will) on Iatuk, KD and KG - you get Iatuk, Hammerhead-1, KD and KG. Prospective barrels for the 3 in CPR average 650m with Hammerhead-1 being perhaps 750m-1bn.
If they can drill the 4 of these successfully 15% is 400-450m barrels of oil potentially at 2C values. Taking the lower end of a $2-5 value you get a $1.3bn market cap or £1bn.
Hence, easy to understand what Malcy is trying to say.
That is before CPR is revised to analyse targets Exxon and partners have highlighted.
For Tullow's share at conservative values this is 1.5x their current MCAP......so they can see the prize.
One question I hope some people may be able to shed some light on - the probability attached to the seals seems low at 40% and wonder if this is normal?

Looking at fleet reports - Seadrill has several potential vessels readily available and in easy transfer to Guyana. Hence, moving up the timeline could be very possible- not sure if rig has been announced for Q3 drill but I dare say working with Repsol there is some value to a 4 drill deal on a rig - 3 for Orinduik one for Kanuku.
Repsol has indicated they will spud in 2019 so could be late Q4 it commences.

Looks like Repsol are committed to a drill on Kanuku with Tullow in 2019. However, Tullow awaiting confirmation their intewstbhas been increased to 37.5% from 30% by government. EIA and other work.looks like not yet underway so likely Q3 at least.
Would think there will be a desire to do something in Q1/Q2 on the Orinduik block - Gil certainly sounds keen.

Should become clearer on 29 Nov at their Capital markets Day but I wonder if any of Tullows other blocks are as advanced as Orinduik in terms of seismic acquisition. Additionally do they have the benefit of read across one can derive from the work done by Exxon and partners in Stabroek.
Imagine at least two wells will be drilled - the first targetingbtwin zones on Iatuk and the second one targeting one of the two remaining top-3 targets.
If they hit pay dirt with these Tullow can increase the facilities available to fund/accelerate other works but imagine Iatuk being prioritised as it is where most info is available with high success indicators.

Looks like 3 wells drilled, hopefully with an acceleration into H1 if not Q1 for activity to commence. Tullow CMD may also have more on Exxon interpretation of Hammerhead prospect - if field is joined to Iatuk, they could work with partners much better through an interest in both sides of field. Looks like a deal is almost there on Namibia which will limit cost to ECO and Gil bullish on prospect. Wonder if this may be Tullow again post the Guyana drills when I dare say they can access further facilities. Possible 3rd country too at limited cost. Alot to like. Roll on the Hess/Exxon/Tullow CMD's

Interesting to see what Guyana info can be taken from Exxon's results and Tullow cap mkts day. If the drilling is to be accelerated makes perfect sense. Wonder if they can drill Iatuk such that they can target both zones and provide a major pay off. Accelerating this activity to late Q1/early Q2 would be a major bonus in terms of timing.
Good for Namibia to take a back seat just now, let some others sink some drills and revisit in the case of success on Orinduik.

Biffa
Far from the kind of language I would use but no, saying there have been some strategic decisions I don't fully agree with, one downright fuck up and some other smaller issues resulting in delays does not make.me think them completely incompetent. They have brought in good.partners and all told stuck to their documented schedule largely but it don't make them perfect and he does (imo) have a pretty big chip on his shoulder.
As an Englishman living in Scotland I see those regularly!

Cebo
You'd be amazed how people may have been in a shipyard or two - although granted not DDW.
Running a portfolio of over 100 ships and dealing with yards from China to Brazil though (and the agents/chief officers scams) does give some knowledge of the market and delivery of refits and new builds in complex vessel types - tankers to box ships with a few semi-subs, DP3 offshore construction and pipelay vessels for fun.