Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Ricfle
While you were on "vacay" from the board I did mention a few times the absence of GLA info was a huge miss from the details around the Spirit transaction presentation. Didn't get much traction to be fair. As is the intended spend of EPs cash flow which could fund Spirit proposed work until mid-20.

Ricfle
Be great if you're right and after the delay in availability of the rigbpreviously they maybhavr something unusual contractually with TO in terms of the potential access to the rig. Think it was released early to Zennor by us (relatively speaking) so a cheeky drill may not be too costly.
However, I'm in the doubtful camp for now.

Ricfle
All communication points to cancellation but not checked the TO quarterly report. They did report $180m of unrestricted cash so maybe want to splash some.....or maybe not.

Mikkjo
The interesting point around that reluctance to drill in Q1/Q2 2019 - was not apparent in the booking of the PBLJ for Q1 - now cancelled. This allied to RT prior comment that AM should/could be on-site from Sept-2018 indicates there has been a change in plans of some sort somewhere which is where the original part of my contribution to this chain emanated from.
However, because all remains within timeline we do not have any info. As mentioned before, I suggest this is related to the Spirit transaction in some way as the timings (when Spirit discussions would have started/delay of sea trials hinted at an earlier date/not hitting the time RT mentioned in his interview).
Just for clarity, a good lunch is not an excuse for RT to spout any old date of AM delivery on site in a televised interview. Given how this moves expectations it is imperative he understands the impact of what he says and when.
As for Corp Governance - any word on I-neds nearly a year after the chairman resigned.

Escargot
It wasn't I who raised it.
Not being able to look at ops with a critical lens both current and past potentially clouds us to risk/opportunity

Add to this their crass approach of gloating to their.potential funders at the Capital Markets day and you get a clearer picture of why the funding was so dilutive. They pissed alot of people.off and RT likes his train set so much he wants his own timetable.
Yes I'm still invested but not with rose tinted spectacles such that I can't see howling errors.

AdUK
There are plenty of people on this board qualified to suggest ways to raise funds. However, more a sin of the advisors on the raise.
The sin of the board and it is a cardinal one to make is to over extend themselves and thus imperil the company.
Within the industry people talk and this over extending made them vulnerable and will in no small part have led to the buyers strike/punitive terms in offer from Equinor and/or others.
Explaining this would make them look foolish so they had to go cap in hand to market after a balls up financing which sophisticated market players took advantage of.
Being in the alternate position of negotiating from strength with players interested in a farm in would have very strongly led to improved terms, either from a financing perspective or with a partner.
That over extension would normally (in a higher market where scrutiny is greater) cost a CFO and/or CEO their job.

Thankfully there is probably very little value ascribed to Namibia in the SP yet so the.imoact is minimal.
Someone mentioned it took 200 drills in the North Sea toxins commercial reserves and while tech has moved on for an area the size of Namibia may take some time yet. Encouraging noises around wet gas shows etc.

AdUK
Something has clearly happened as RT stated the potential for AM to be on site BY Sept. That would have needed a July sail away. He would not have mentioned this were it not likely let alone feasible.
What can we under from this, something has happened and I wager it is to do with the Spirit transaction.
Am afraid denying any possibility of delay is blind faith in the BoD who at times operate a mushroom strategy for the PIs.
Harping back to Stobie does not serve your message well either.

Any price predictions are challenging due to the number of variables POO and market correction being just two.
For anyone out there DSPP has done a decent one on Lemonfool but if you want to do your own the best way is to think at different points in time where the potential reserves will be on the value curve.
What are the catalysts that will move them along the value curve from where they sit currently EPS for Lancaster and probably Halifax with some read across to drilling in GWA also.
Successful GWA drills then a successful tie back and likely some Halifax and Whirlwind activity not yet flagged.
If the EPS is a success and 2019 drills yield good results then I'd envisage a take out in £3-5 range towards year end 2019/Q1'20.
Otherwise it could start to get expensive if 2C/2P is booked on all fields and industry seems to have some residual concerns on FB hence absence of meaningful activity to date from big players as regards HUR.
They will want a good deal cognizant of their perceived risks.

So if TOTAL was feeling aggressive and wanted to be the head honcho on the block how do they do it? Tullow will want to retain a fairly chunky interest but our 15% and same from Tullow would probably work well.
Mix and match some cash up front and then further payment if they hit paydirt on an agreed drilling schedule. Gil reckons $1.25 net just now so 50% of that now plus 40% of the $7/8 a barrel as it converts from P50 to 2C in 2019/early 2020.
That is probably $500m upfront for TOTAL to us and Tullow with the prospect of another $3-4 a barrel in a year.
Gives us cash for Namibia and works a treat for Tullow one would think. Total then get cracking with first 4 drills....at a cost of.probably $150-200m.

Maverick7
What do do you define as cheaply?
I'd say the $600m Gil referred to is a 90% discount from what 15% of a revised CPR with Exxon info would show. With the uplift in Cos particularly on Iatuk then barrels there could easily be $2 in a model (so c.$200m to ECO).
The remaining 350m barrels at an average of a buck a barrel plus Namibia gets you to a $600m number very easily.
Although I think they would prefer (if it came about) a sale of Guyana to continue further with Namibia.
The seismic and CPR will still be getting digested by many and TOTAL will only now have full seat at the table to assess their options.
Based on Exxon work these fields can be made into producers fairly quickly in the scheme of the oil industry timelines which again holds in their favour.....
Still interesting times

Is it not just housekeeping in anticipation of partner interest for Namibian assets if Tullow/Chariot drills are successful then interest is likely to ramp up.

Think cash expenditure related to any additional acreage at this point will be minimal. Africa Energy have indicated they want first option to invest with ECO and leverage their skills and model. Hence, it may be almost zero. Much of the expertise on Orinduik will be driven by Tullow and Total now so management will have some scope to look at other areas for value creation.
Think Melrose resources - a listed firm that acts as a PE house. Essentially buying companies and dividending cash. Eco can do likewise by having different prospects in their individual SPV so they can be packaged and sold when time comes.
Think an offer may be on the table sooner than many think and would be surprised if ECO are still a partner in the block by time to first drill.

Very interesting that he mentions a value figure for Orinduik. It essentially seems like a come and get me with the funds then to be used on the potentially bigger prize of Namibia. Allowing ECO to do much more before relinquishing a holding to partners.

SiPP
Morgan Stanley are not a charity and be recompense to the tune of several million as broker for HUR. If you look at the various imbroglios whatbhave occurred in the market - investment banks have not exactly been whiter than white.
They will see potential opportunity down the line for fee generation if there is corporate activity but nothing is a sure thing. They will be involved with companies who fail and alive to the risk but there is little downside for them.

Haven't read the Morgan Stanley note but from the highlights they seem fairly clued in. Their analysis will not be without significant research input from their technical advisors - I know the O&G team in my old bank used to keep some employed year-round.

The EPs is not without risk, charm of the fractures being big enough to walk through maybe true in parts but the nature of the beast is that some will the pencil thin. How do they flow and where does the oil collect relative to the horizontal well points is one of the big questions EPS needs to answer.
The downside of 18p is possibly optimistic but their upside of 380p or whatever is probably pessimistic if all goes to plan. As information becomes available they can tighten these numbers.
Some have indicated because of the drills done there.is little chance of non performance aligned to the excellent PI but nature can throw a curve ball.
As one who has said there is little risk has also said, the outcome is unlikely to be binary on the side.of failure simply because of the oil in place.
Hard to guess how the market will move this in the wait for data or Foil but I'd guess about 115p at FOIL if it is available Reverandy. It is likely to come when they arebgettkngbready for drilling which can only add to the excitement.

Think $10 a barrel is a bit ambitious and perhaps safer to.work in the $3-5 range. Where they are miserly is the 785m barrels assumption. One has to.imagine EPS will prove up nigj on 600m on Lancaster alone and make people much more confident of Halifax if it does it's job. There's 1.8bn barrels.
If it can prove up Lincoln and Warwick too in 2020 then that is another 1.4bn barrels.
At the upper bound it isn't a dissimilar number to your own Ricfle of around $16bn or $6.40 per share or a fiver.
One could add the NPV10 of an extended (10yr) EPS on both areas which is about $3.4bn or another £1.00 a share.
This needs all to go well in next two years.

Its you
Yep dipping in and out chasing the next big thing can lead to burnt fingers as they are not all golden eggs.
For ECO it is c.9months until they drill and TOTAL want to be involved in that planning process. What price for TOTAL to want a bigger seat at the table? Also, with seismic and the Hammerhead d TOTAL could to my mind easily spring a surprise and make an offer for ECO Guyana.
However, not sure what price Gil would want he seemed to like the $5-8 a barrel analogy for 450m barrels. Who wouldnt but TOTAL would have figures a Good bit lower than that in mind.
$1.00-$1.50-$2.00 a barrel across field (with CoS due to increase, new leads to be determined and ECO 100m barrels plus in Latuk arguably further up the curve toward 2C values) seems like a more realistic range if someone was thinking of.pouncing currently.

Wouldn't bet on that Shpunken.

With news on resource only set to improve and drilling of prospects in Namibia with the potential to derisk plays in this geography too the shares should continue to 're rate.