Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Greenmachine
Wasn't to plagiarise DSPP it was merely to show that even a pretty conservative metric (there seem to be doubts about FB after all in major camps) equates to a good return for us all from these kind of levels.
Given this I can see this being the level a major might pitch at if we are around £1.00 in the.period after FOIL as they will have some idea about well performance through the jungle drums not withstanding how it is choked back and pressure tested will be harder to know.

Greenmachine
Wasn't to plagiarise DSPP it was merely to show that even a pretty conservative metric (there seem to be doubts about FB after all in major camps) equates to a good return for us all from these kind of levels.

Greenmachine
Simply serves as a conservative number but also FB assets will attract a lower overall.price than conventional plays I believe. Would use a different number for say ECO Atlantic.

Extrader
Let the Germans stop selling cars to Saudi and Russia and China if so concerned about HUMAN rights. Hypocritical tossers.
Funny how any sanctioned country always.managed to have Volkswagen and Peugot motor cars and Mercs for the high ups on their streets in the 70s/80s/90s regardless of the penalties imposed elsewhere in the West.

Biffa
My comments were more in relation to the supposed crisis at Crystal Amber and how one could infer similar or worse issues here if of a mind to. The big Orange fake tanned bewigged one is crazier than Howling mad murdoch and trying to predict the future with him around is not easy (wish they'd hurry up and impeach).

However, in medium term I expect the need to balance budgets and buy off the populace will see Saudi and Russia come to a deal regardless of Trumps wishes. Possibly in Dec but by late Spring latest and certainly in time for the black stuff pumping from Lancaster and drills completing on GWA.
Post drills with 3bn plus barrels and a successful EPS the majors should be sharpening pencils and even taking the $2 a barrel metric (90% discount to NPV10 at $60 oil) it will.make sense to someone.

What the SP may be if and when there was a TO who knows.

YASIRAMI
Very interesting to see the figures laid out like that. Any takers for a $3.20 average on our 2P and 2C tomorrow? :-)))))

Can I
Fantastic - best thing I've read in a while (barring all the synthetic rage on Owen Farrell tackles).

Biffa I'm not posting the YouTube link for the eleventh first time butnTrice clearly stated Sept as a possibility February when AM had been in dock for nearly 6 months. So something has gone awry or as I have previously said works are being done to limit Spirit downtime later in the piece as GWA is hooked up and PIs are being kept in the dark.
You didnt answer the question around the share price decline though?

People say to stop harking back - but mention of CA and unseemly enjoyment of a supposed crisis when their SP is down in line with wider markets unlike our own whose decline is triple that level is odd.

If that means Richard Bernstein is in crisis, I'm curious what it bodes for RT and AS who have watched the price fall 30% again while overseeing a project that is by any objective measure now quite seriously late - regardless of the H1 guidance to market. What kind of crisis are they in pray tell?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-26/tullow-oil-ceo-emerges-from-founder-s-shadow-as-risk-taking-ebbs?utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic
Interesting article - Guyana near the tail but clearly a focus and a cause of some excitement in the firm.

Just a quick note to say hope you are being up well today. All the best.

Nothing ECO can do about PoO but the sharp up-tick in volume of barrels moving up the value curve as far as classification of recoverable oil should trump any macro issues if all goes to plan.

Not sure a raise would make much sense because (unless we are unaware of a major issue) the cash simply isn't needed for anything. Unless they want to drill GLA this year but RT was clear this wouldn't happen due to potential interference with the EPS and the info they are looking for this to produce.
To do so before the potential re-rate in assets arising from EPS and drilling would be akin to blind panic unless very strongly messaged.
But hey- have been wrong before enough.

Wessex
It is probably independence that would impact HUR more, with the likelihood of an independent government milking the fatted calf for all she is worth.
However, the positioning of Germanynrelative TO Russia has been shameful and the discovery of billions of barrel of commercial oil in Atlantic Europe may change their geo political axis but that is many years hence.
Ultimately, commercial interests in Europe should out but the grand project has some amount of willpower behind it. So there may be a fairly fractious relationship.

Long wait
Not sure the gas has disappeared in Morocco for Sound but don't think it is there in the quantity they believe or commercial enough to extract in recent wells.
To build a model based.on the Algerian basin seems odd at best and Brian M has never been quite as bombastic as JP. Feel for many of the folk who have seen it up to a.pound and back down again but in there is a lesson for us all in regards to booking a profit. I didn't do it here the first time due to FOMO and it is surely a danger.
Good luck if you're still invested and to.anyone else.who may be.

HtL
Good luck and hope the chemo goes well.
Don't think in to the BB for the weekend Brexit update to cheer yourself up but perhaps the thought of AdUK and Wellwell doing a duet together of The Weather Girls song in a pub at the next AGM is a cheerful one.
All the best.

Sxx
It is.in a different way but company assumes 2 wells produce 10k bopd but have modelled 17k bopd.productuon as they assume only 85% uptime. Some of this may be linked to 1 or 2 offloading delays and then others linked to potential weather or other delays.
I'd say a 15% downtime is fairly conservative, think AM achieved well North of this when on station in N.Sea previously.

Waited until weekend O/T - don't think little England is anti European but does resent the democratic deficit of the EU and it's continued power grabs. For 20yrs it's proponents have said fears of supranationalism are overdone and it has little influence on our day to day but thebstealthy creep of treaty expansion has given it more power than many realised when voting.
Personally, I think we are better off out but we rushed Article 50 before being fully prepared.
However, the idea that Theresa deal is better than staying in is laughable and we'd be crazy to accept it. No sovereign state has signed up to such subjugation without first being defeated by war or impoverished economically.
Personally, as a banker we have in the UK (and US) a ridiculous attitude to disposable economy and personal indebtedness. We do not invest enough in R&D and too few family companies go on to be major international companies as the rampant consumerism sees people sell out for a few mill and play golf instead of continuing to build. We need a huge reality check and a severe contraction of consumption, wealth redirected away from investment in.property which just bids up the price of non productive assets and proper investment in producers and companies which will.improve our international investment position.
A government with a strong 10 or 20 year vision of attracting manufacturing, encouraging enterprise and building houses where there is a need.
We should be working with our European neighbours positively and quickly as there is a danger the well will be poisoned for a long time to come with the current discourse.

Olderandwiser
Not sure there is any issue with raising funds to prove up the assets - we are under obligations as a partner in the field after all. I would ask if we would still own our stake in Guyana by then if drilling is successful.
As for SP - we should know more of what is planned for next year following Tullow CMD but 2 or 3 drills next year. The first likely targeting 2 zones if it can and potentially the 600m barrels of iatuk and whatever Hammrhead holds.
If you think of 2C value in the ground for that drill alone (if it succeeds) and use $2 not Gils $8-10 and presume 600m barrels you still get double the current MCAP.
The upside from there is significant as this could be 245m barrels net to ECO as a single accumulation.

Maverick7
Not quite what I was alluding to. More that if a company the size of HESS views their interests in Guyana as transformational what might similar interests do for a company the size of ECO.
HESS has a 30% interest in a field with c.5bn barrels and 9 drilled fields.
We have 15% in P50 of 3bn boe with iatuk still to be fully appraised and the work of Exxon still to be fully factored in. We are granted 3 years behind the Exxon/HESS curve so it is not overnight but a successful Q2 drill (presuming acceleration) will see interest ramp up.
Funding will be needed beyond 2019 but for a further 10 drills our share is $45-60M and if raising post 2 successful drills it is reasonable to expect strong demand.
Obviously subject to usual caveats around price of oil and macro picture

Just listened to the HESS call again. Prior to doing so check a couple of figures to compare them to us, they have 30% of Stabroek we have 15% of Orinduik. Their Mkt Cap is $16bn ours is $100m.

What shone through was the fields will have industry leading cost metrics and a company the size of HESS thinks the find will be transformational for them. Transformational - what level.of value add to a $16bn company equates to transformational - id imagine an amount many multiples of our own mkt cap given they are 160x our size. Well worth a listen for those interested.