Member Info for InJamesweTrust

SIPP
Not sure the board has convinced Spirit that EPS is nailed on - they have a $80-90M initial commitment to see if there is oil, to see all the data on Lincoln and see how Warwick correlates. They get a low-cost in to the use of the FPSO to confirm the flow of the fields and only then do they spend more cash.
It is a fairly one sided deal for 50% of a 1.5-2.0bn barrel potential field - I make it 10c a barrel of P50 that in 18months could be 2P for a minimal outlay over and above that 10c.

CoS is I think 22.7% as across most prospects - none of these have been updated post Hammerhead - which in a way makes sense as between it and iatuk - one i cretacious and one tertiary but it does show the oil system exists very close to our own block.
Looks like the channels come down from the shallow waters into the various stratigraphic traps across Jethro, Amatuk, Iatuk towards Hammerhead

The constant back biting when someone is trying to make a simple point is really unedifying as a spectacle on this board. The almost hero like worship of a board which has more than once proved itself fallible is also dangerous because it can blind one to signals which indicate not all is as it seems.
As investors we don't always pick up on these but it allowed me to sell out of one share in O&G for 5x it's current price 2 years ago and got me to trim my holding here 6 or so weeks ago in the 50's. Doesn't make me a a genius as held through the prior fall but rarely will one always get a top or bottom.
HUR should deliver good returns from here, Nigwit is not suggesting otherwise but jumping on him because he points out the bleeding obvious is group ramp think.

Irene
he intimated the potential for it at the AGM this year, let alone last. Although did flatly deny saying what he is on film saying from February this yer. So timelines have moved against what they expect, mgmt has not updated the market as to why (still maintain it is Spirit) and this along with previous instances of dropping the ball makes investors nervous.

So KD looks to be 573m barrels and a depth of 150ft plus which compares in depth to Hammerhead. Not sure about size of prospect (square in wonder if Exxon have published this - for KD it is 32-77km2.

Wonder if they are trying to work back via this and Amatuk to iatuk to see what the accumulation is? Bit disappointing from an ECO perspective it isn't iatuk but am sure Tullow has reasons for their strategy.

Not sure Total or Tullow can control the release of any CPR from ECO, as ECO have paid for the analysis themselves and can publish if they desire. Part of doing so for ECO is to stay on the front foot in terms of value within the block and what will accrue to them.
Not to repeat myself, but Tullow suggesting their first 3 drills will be on some of the smallest prospects across their two blocks is frankly laughable unless they are waiting for a revised Long Term Incentive Plan to be instigated before adding the value that Guyana is likely to add (their share could easily make them worth multiples of current MCAP if as big as we think).
So there are some games being played about what the strategy is or isn't and for those that want to move the strategy will they step up and take control. Tullow will not likely wish to farm down below 40% but if Gil reckons Eco is worth $600M that makes 20% of field from Tullow worth $800M which TOTAL is not going to pay before the drill turns. Some sort of deal that carries Tullow and makes TOTAL (joint) operator to accelerate the drilling seems likely but as mentioned what does this mean for ECO cash need?
Dare say plenty of takes for some meaningful ECO equity out there based on Exxon progress next door and the relatively small beer nature of ECO's funding requirement by industry standards.

Up $5bn today but to be fair just a rounding error for them.

Schliemel - for the timing, the BoD needed the $1m to do the seismic and the deal was struck prior to Orinduik drill success. The BoD can't stand around waiting for Exxon to do stuff and getting Total in is no mean feat.

So 1m3 = 6.3 barrels. If the range is 37m deep and 10km square it is 37x2000x5000 m3. Multiply that by 6.3 then say 15% oil and you get a number (344m barrels for above example). Depends on field and how much oil is in payzone.

Prior fields for Exxon, Lisa 295ft, Lisa 2 198ft, Liza 4 197ft, Payara 1 95ft, Snoek 82ft, Turbot-1 79ft, Pacora 1 65ft, Long tail 256ft and Hammerhead 197ft.

Depth of play just one metric along with length and width of field

Would also imagine that as cars became more common it was dangerous to use horse drawn carriage as they could get spooked. Also, in a city like NY there is a mapping up with the Jones' element on 5th avenue for critical mass in the likes of the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the panhandle and other areas I think uptake would have been slower.
The big conurbations will push the trend with legislation on car usage but outside of those non-electric used cars will begin to become very cheap and as you move down the income spectrum will be very compelling unless heavily taxed.
The truck is still some way from being ready to change also and these are quite prevalent on US roads.

Maverick7
That was aim of my comment around Chryasoar and Siccar Point - any potential to get a meaningful foothold in the stock will be welcomed. However, one need a to be mindful of the Ithaca situation where one holder (Delek) gained a block holding and the company was taken out at a very low premium to the trading range due to challenges any other suitors would face.
This would be my worry with a raise today that didn't have a lock period and buy back option.

Jimarillo
I'd need to check on the timing of Namibia and when they are required to drill. They will not wish to over commit cash to Guyana and then be left with a raise for Namibia in the face of dwindling interest so may prefer to raise on Guyana to.preserve funds for Namibia. If that makes sense.
WITH c.$24m they could probably fund 4-5 drills on Guyana but a) I'd be surprised if partners didn't want to drill more and b) need to save some cash.

I'm not sure the BoD need to do anything short term- to some extent it will depend on what cash they need to spend in Namibia and whether a partner is found there to carry.
If be surprised if the likes if Chryasoar and Siccar Point do not have ECO on their radar - with 3 yrs to FOIL. Tullow proposing to drill 2 of the.smallest prospects seems like game theory to me and would allow someone to work.on us at a lower price than drilling iatuk and proving the elephant.
Ultimately they'd be nuts not to drill near Hammerhead unless Exxon are giving them info WHICH I doubt highly.
Even proving 300m barrels.in smaller fields makes us $450n using Gils numbers which is 5x current MCAP. Not to mention value placed on undrilled prospects.
Ultimately for me, difficult to see the BoD diluting from here but even a raise of 20% would fund us for 3 further drills on Orinduik c.$20m - which if the seismic is any way accurate takes us to a value way beyond today.

Think there is an international precedent with a gas field split between Iran and Qatar - 2 naturally trusting countries.
Interesting that Tullow said they aim to get from drilling to first oil inside 3 yrs - makes people's models much more immediate.
Exxon may have analysis which indicates the split of the field based seismic and pressure testing - they had the rig on there for a heck of a time after confirming oil.
What happens to the cretacious though if Hammerhead is Tertiary (or vice versa). Still.needs drilled.....

Looking over the Tullow presentation (intend to watch again later) I can't help but feel they underplayed Guyana a little bit. Understand CEO wants to be careful with drill and not spend fortunes until certain but not sure it came across clearly enough that if oil is discovered then Orinduik becomes about appraisal and activity would ramp up.
Some ifnit seems like a game with Total who.probably want iatuk drilled first for both cretacious and tertiary to see if they pony up more dosh/support to get there.
Very difficult to call who will blink first or indeed what will actually be drilled based on yesterday!

Be interesting to see my available analyst notes following presentation today on where they see TP for Tullow and upside drivers from the likes of Orinduik.

In the Q&A the analysts seemed a bit incredulous at the proposed drilling campaign relative to the opportunity presented by the Orinduik block.
- They were asked about farming down but stated they are still appraising and now isn't the time until they know more on value.
- First drill is Amatuk, why not Iatuk because they potentially border/are linked so could be one bloody big accumulation.
- With an exploration cap are the opportunity constrained, no if they find oil it then becomes appraisal and they will find budget to drill it as much as needed.
EVP of new ventures stated when they are successful In Guyana not if.
Also, presentation shows Guyana is number 1 priority.
Trying to pull drillingbis far forward as they reasonably can. I reckon Q1 will be spud.

I get the impression Tullow are inviting Total to bid for operatorship to explore the licence more quickly.

$100m annually split 1:3 interim and 2:3 final with a view to a one off dividend for 2018 following close of accounts.

Johnpwh
And an FD to boot