Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Check tweets from Robert Palladino in US State Dept. Not subtle and very clear to Venezuela.

In the midst of the Venezuelan pessimism, I look forward to Tullow results/investor calls in mid-Jan and mid-Feb. Hopefully at the earlier if these but surely by the latter some confirmation of unitisation discussions and how the parties pllan to appraise Hammerhead properties will be confirmed. In doing so it could confirm a handy 2P number before we have even incurred drilling costs.

Venezuela has little realistic chance of success. Similarly, has Venezuelan production not crashed they made such an arse of running PDVSA- their best bet is to perhaps get some sort of revenue sharing on the Northern most part of Exxon's block through say a cooperation agreement.
Even the most rose tinted optimist in Venezuela must know they can't organise a piss up in a brewery.
If Exxon were considered they would not have invested several billion drilling and commissioning FPSO's.
Probably linked to SP decline even though we are far from their border

AdUK
Us are the shareholders of the company. Foregoing income reduces value in the short term (and as far as Spirit goes the long term also).
The delay is clear or Trice would never have said on station from Sept when speaking after AM had been in dry dock for 5 months already
Its not fear mongering but it is a case of mushroom treatment for investors.

SiPP
Not interested in IR trotting out the company line, there is been a definite delay to the work in Dubai. This has cost us 3-4months of income (a not inconsiderable sum if it all works and flows) as well as the key knowledge needed from the EPS due to hook up bring delayed FRO M Sept (Dr Trices own words which were much discussed here at the time and it was agreed he would not mention if not realistic).
If DDW had arsed the refit and caused the delay there would be a material amount of liquidated damages due if the contract was written by any competent person and not a moron. HUR and Bluewater both lose materially from such a delay.
So the income I was referring to was 2018 as well as 2019.
If Trice didn't want to be quoted he shouldn't have said it on camera but what trips it for me is he (an intelligent man) flatly denied saying it at the AGM when questioned.
I've been around a few vessel refits and I certainly would by give the yard a free pass for that kind of balls up.
The liquidated damages would be RNSable as they would change cash position.
Easy for Spirit cash to be used now if agreed in the deal the fine print of which none of us has seen.

BnB
We could be using 2018 income to drill if the Spirit deal had not delayed the AM. We could also now be on the verge of 60pm barrels of 2P (possibly 1.8bn barrels depending on Halifax read across) which taking the lower number, using $5 a barrel and discounting all else would have us £1.00 a share producing $600k a day free cashflow or $218m p.a. so add the NPV of that to the barrels in the ground value and you're £1.50 versus 39p.....

A fine sentiment Wessex and happy holidays to all. Will still pop in here to see the next scheduled departure date (!?!?!?) For the old girl. Here is hoping sentiment picks up in January.
For this and some other stocks change in perception should ultimately trump market ructions.

Unless they are taken out, cash will be needed.
The driver for such an even for me is one of 2 things - fund further drills in which case cash needed late 2019/early 2020 or to fund development costs of Hammerhead on a unitised basis. This would 've if Hammerhead was appraised and confirmed in which case we would have potentially upwards of 150m 2P resources soon to be monetized at attractive rates. Potentially with another 150m 2C and another 300m plus of P50 in the hottest postcode in oil & Gas.

Unless they are taken out, cash will be needed.
The driver for such an even for me is one of 2 things - fund further drips in which case cash needed late 2019/early 2020 or to fund development costs of Hammerhead on a unitised basis. This would 've if Hammerhead was appraised and confirmed in which case we would have potentially upwards of 150m 2P resources soon to be monetized at attractive rates. Potentially with another 150m 2C and another 300m plus of P50 in the hottest postcode in oil & Gas.

Very hard to explain the recent price action here. Unitisation of the field with Exxon creates a cashflow in 1-3 yrs of likely $130-250m p.a. on just a small part of the field (per Hess comments around accelerating Hammerhead). This has had initial appraisal to the extent Exxon have commissioned/are commissioning drillships and FPSO(s) for the field.
Very strange but markets are not necessarily rational...

DickyH
Or to.quote Queen, Hammer to Fall.
Who'd have thought 38p would see light of day again. Fun times in them there markets....

HESS presentation indicates Hammerhead may be biggest on Stabroek block and could be accelerated above the other developments to be onstream 2022 (think their 2020 plans will be too far advanced).
Clear indications in Finncap note this will be subject to unitisation with Tullow et al as fields are combined. If it is the biggest (my read of seismic is we have around half) it makes it bigger than Liza at 1,834 million barrels - split across the licences.
So potentially 2bn barrels of which ECO may have 7.5% of (if unitisation is an even split)........

AH-O total com0 c.0.2% of Lloyds Market Cap.
Value added in 7.5yrs since joining -35%.
Nice work if you can get it.

Not sure interview style of Moose will have them coming back. The news item below does link to Finncap note which is useful.

Alibi
Currently the tax regime is extremely favourable IN Scotland for O&G. Try castungbyour mind forward 5 years to a broke SNP government with massive social spending commitments and imagine how that tax situation may change.
Similarly, consider the balance of payment effects on currency - let's call it the SCOTTISH unicorn - it will be tied to oil and fluctuate wildly resulting in interest rates that gyrate more wildly than a table dancer during shore leave week IN Aberdeen.

The big instis and the big oilies will have their ears to.the ground in the places it matters - mainly Aberdeen - simple phraseology like Bluehorseshoe loves Annacott Steel and the SP will be off to the races and re-rated before we have a clue on this BB.
Hence it becomes about timing. When is the info they need available, how much of it do they need and What is your confidence the info will be positive. Once you consider those, time your entry point and consider any exit strategy.

Jaykay
Is that a good metric for SP decline as this one is down 80% from its peak.....

As an addendum- the mention of IRR higher than 20% was an interesting one at the Tullow CMD. A metric that is the lifeblood of PE houses and almost seems like a pitch to Chryasoar/Siccar Point and others.
Farm down post drilling could carry them on much of first phase development.

Schliemel

Tullow are currentlyndealingbwithnthe debt and reducing it at a fair click. However, they are between the rock and the hard place as they look to build scale in the business with their African and South American plays.
On 80k bopd plays if they are getting breakeven in the low 30's as they seem to be 3 or 4 such plays can very quickly produce significant free cashflow.
Beauty of Guyana is the simplicity of the FPSO solution if taking same path as Exxon. Both in terms of time to cash and overall cost. Hess reckon Stabroek delays CapEx within 4 yrs at $60 and less than 5yrs at $50. $40 oil it takes 6yrs for 150k bopd solution.

So with the reduction of 40k staff, 3 strategic reviews and a share price which continues to languish 25% plus below the level when he joined does Antonio have a job for life and cam screw the bank as much as he likes?