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Findme
I think most on here have had sufficient opportunity to adjust their risk and reward profile to get comfortable with their portfolios.
Nothing is guaranteed and nobody states that it is - this was something I banged on about when ao first posted and unless you're blind, GRH has mentioned that irreducible risk remains.
Not sure who you think you're saving to be honest. Most aren't here for 20BCF more for hundreds of BCF and maybe multiple TCF.
I believe the hundreds of BCF to be possible and that would do me nicely in terms of juicing overall returns. Anything else is a bonus although welcome of course. Could it have been done sooner (I note prospectus BRV highlighted mentioned SandJet testing in mid-23) so yes of course it could but testing is where its at now with some further drills then we will either be at the races or gone to dogs. Don't think anyone is blind to that.
Thebold
He isn't saying it is Ghawar, he is saying his analysis points him to believe there is a strong read across to other large fields.
If there are two large structures MOU5-Mou4 and MOU1-3 is all connected that's alot or Oil/Gas.
By all means disagree but no reason to drag others thought process down in doing so.
I think GRH output is valuable here as is Methodology/Keith Oz/Seabright etc (there are many others)
BRV
Thank you, I'll have a read on the train tomorrow.
If there is a link to licence details, much appreciated. I'd checked the website and also Sleeping Giant but could not locate the full Ts&Cs or whatever version of them may be public domain.
TIA if anyone can help.
AV
I'm pretty sure Potential is in the OED and has a specific, so unlike your posts it doesn't mean nothing.
In this context the.potential is the possible discovery or a major gas resource but it is by no means certain- possible though so for many they are willing to see if the potential reward comes to fruition hopefully within a sensible overall risk approach to portfolios.
Just checked the Morocco.section of the website - seems a little aged!!!!
RNS to go there for further information. Blimey
Ibiza
Several years ago two management consultants from the North East struck on the bright idea of building a couple of semi sub rigs in Huddersfield/Hull way. These are much more complex than SV-101 but the lenders lost hundreds of millions.
I'd imagine SV-101 has quite a lead time to construct and would cost in the tens of millions to build let alone getting a consortium of experts together to ensure the correct design spec and construction capability.
Often order books are filled well in advance and few are built speculatively.
Keith
An excellent post and what many of us have posited as a way forward in terms of prove flow for CNG then sign GSA with upfront payment or complete a raise.
The technical element around depth is newer to me in terms of analysis and seems like a good option. Particularly being funded to do multiple drills.
Ninja
Don't subscribe to the get it last mantra, of there are delays because Chariot decide to drill further holes or Sound/Chariot encounter issues (not unheard of) we potentially don't see the rig for even longer. In such eventuality weather can interrupt ops too. I'd rather have been next in line and drilled, it has been said previously much of the prove up drilling would be left to others so it appears a bit of a contradiction.
Also, unsure how a 10 drill campaign at our leisure because we are last in line is to be funded.
To be fair BillyRay, 26bcf is quite the.prize wonder what CoS is for that?!
As for CoS on Sandjet I'd say that's a good deal higher and the BoD is happy to await the outcome with no thought of placement given the provisional GSA that may be cemented in event of good results. That would start to release new funding avenues outside of placements and dilution.
Glad to see a short pause as Still movingnfinds around to add here.
Bold
I mention CTU because it seems to be the most scarce element of kit required for Sandjet testing.
While I've been critical on messaging I think management will have been planning for the approval and procuring kit in timely fashion
Procuring kit that is going to be required isn't running the P&L recklessly, quite the opposite if it allows manage to move at pace. The bits that may have a lead time are coiled tubing and/or Sandjet team to conduct ops.
Again I'd suspect this is in train as od hope it was known extension was imminent.
Who knows PG may surprise us all with SV-101 on the way too.
Jimmy/TheBold
Management I'm.pretty sure indicated coiled tubing was available mid April and other kit would take a couple of weeks. Suggestions of months from now for Sandjetting are I would think wide of the mark.
I doubt the approval process is a closed box with no comms back and forth to PRD from the various regulatory bodies in country. We should hopefully see further info in due course
Think a good amount of kit will have been procured and in store or transiting customs. The bigger question is probably availability of team to test but one would hope they've had line of sight that approval was incoming and a team is scheduled already.
Interesting context KeithOz
Pv72
I hope (and expect) PG is pushing size of PRD resource to prove up versus Chariot and suggesting to OHNYM we should be head of queue.
Mentioned last week I think Sandjet is imminent as this delivery seemed contractually definitive in the comms.
Appreciate that drills can be a challenge due to kit my frustration is, if we have allowed ourselves to fall to back of queue when it has been planned for sometime.
Usual mushroom treatment from PG.
At the Proactive event Sandjet equipment was due to start arriving from mid-April with testing commencing end-April.
Note the Financial statement contains a note saying the contract is signed for SV rig but not timeline.
I do hope given how long it has been mooted that they have ducked in before Chariot/Sound but the silence is currently deafening.
Ford/GRH/Keith
If the rig isn't available, do you think we should crack on with Sandjet or wait for an indeterminate time?
Is there a time frame without action in which you think the BoD would be required to update shareholders on plans?
Kit costs money and what we need is clearly in demand so it may be that to save on costs the activities need to be staggered out of necessity or we would just be paying for rig/tubing to sit idle while waiting for other to become free.
If we tests 260m and get anywhere near 1m/scf a meter then based on the NPV of the CNG and other uses it would be a very positive result and could be compartmentalised in event of an offer being made.
There are potentially large sums at stake but we don't know for sure and market doesn't yet buy in. Blindly trusting regardless of elastic timeframes is something few CEOs would get away with.
It's a simple hypothetical to answer and something most folk face daily about deliverables and decisions on what to prioritise.