We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Androcles
Fairly certain you're right it was 3D to better understand after TE-5/TE-6 if memory serves. Nothing is guaranteed once into the source rock - hence need to flow test.
MOU-4 tested 2M of the Jurassic did it not? If this is in communication with MOU-5 when testing is undertaken then it will give an indication of connection of the areas and thus the potential of size of the prize.
Sufficient likely for purposes of an initial sale with kickers built in one would think.
If we are flowing 50 - 230mm scfs per day from the various intervals then a sale of the CNG on NPV would be significantly remunerative and anything else is gravy.
Jimmy
Can they tests pressure connectivity in MOU-5 (to the 2m MOU-4) as a proxy for seismic. While further drilling would still be required we will not likely be around for the full prove up and the BoD may prefer to indicate the likely multi-TCF potential to a degree of certainty for corporate activity purposes.
deification of paul & lonny does nobody any good.
they may have reasons for waiting to test until mou-5 is done also but haven't necessarily gone about it the right way or explained things brilliantly and by own admission taken their eyes off the ball resulting in several months delay.
we are here because we believe the risks are reasonable for the gas which may be found but those delays have opportunity costs. the bod just dismiss this out of hand, they better have actual gas flowing as he will look a proper **** if not given the hubris.
i would just prefer a more measured style and where timelines slip then revised timelines they can stand behind instead of fall behind.
Wackmesiter
If it is going to be Dosvidanya then I'd imagine the money would need to be routed through Moroccan government as cannot see UK authorities permitting Gazprom to take out a UK corporate.
They are still awash with cash, think they're EBITDA 3 years ago was around $25bn annually
Calculated risk where the potential reward is aligned to, probably in excess of the level of risk based on prevailing info and probabilities. Wouldn't call it gambling, that is picking the Masters/National winners (I am Reckless/John Rahm for those interested!!).
While frustrated I remain invested as believe the gas will show when tested, just the when aspect which vexes.
As an addendum to my earlier post, back in Jan/Feb a pal who is on a WhatsApp with a number of other heavily invested folk here said PG record delivering results isn't the best. There will be an issue with testing and he'll want Sandjet so it will be June before we see see results.
He doesn't trade the stock and has held since 2p but bloody hell maybe he should be a trader as that seems the timescale we are facing.
PG reference to summer holidays is very poor and given previous timelines indicated should be an RNS not a throwaway comment if we are delayed to June/July/August or maybe he meant Summer '25.
It's not a positive update its an update with little definition around the questions most often posed here. Rig and Sandjet timing.
I'd also take issue with £440k not being enough in Directors fees along with options that they're paying themselves £200k plus for producing reports just because they didn't go to a third party, Come on.
Any thoughts on the $500k spanked on useless PH.1 testing.
The markets do not have access to all of the data but there is as yet no certainty without testing and as another poster says, he has had plenty of time to execute this.
Markets also don't like CEOs that take their eyes off the ball by their own admission.
It's kind of all noise just now until we know more about the Sandjet timings and the MOU-5 test date.
Success with Sandjet materially changes the game, imagine BoD would prefer to complete both in a similar timeline - issues with one may be offset by success in other.
Time will tell but PG unfortunately has indicated delays are no concern of his and he won't apologise even if they do occur.
My memory indicates 3k bopd nets back to around $4.5m monthly. Recall netbacks being c.$50 per barrel.
So 10k bopd is $175m p.a. setback, FCF which even on a stingy multiple of 3x is way above current MCAP.
3k bopd netback of $4.5m per month is $54m p.a. so the MCAP is around 1.5x FCF on a backward looking basis which is pretty poor.
Ironically PG retiring would likely see a wider management team brought in and the speed of realisation improve ad management bandwidth does.
However, he is well connected locally as is Lonny and that as GRH suggests is a relationship to carefully manage. There are though plenty of potential candidiates waiting for VR or packages at Majors who could come in and do the work as would Schlumberger for a fee so the health of Paul is not really anything to speculate on and to do so is rather unedifying.
The BoD is in touch with large shareholders who have experience in the industry also and there is a circle that know the company very well.
Speed of delivery might be a concern for me (which I hope in April/May will prove to be historic) but the health of management isn't so much of one execpt as to wish them well.
Av
Flip side also true- worth acknowledging positives/potential
Muckle
Don't think I was doing anything with TheBold but happy to be enlightened?!
Just suggesting one drill might be preferred over another and OHNYM ultimately holds the ace on permitting
Good to note OHNYM had a 25% share in Chariots upcoming drill ' the 3 prospects total 74bcf.
Now, if I was the Moroccan government and looking at drilling priorities in the area I'd personally be tempted to prioritise Geurcif over Chariots drills. Hundreds of bcf potentially even greater than 1 TCF is a bit of a bigger prize.
Just what my thinking would be and believe we also have an option on the drill.
He did but preso says coiled tubing available end April. Think it is easier to push through customs than a tonne of sand though (thought Morocco would have plenty of that!!)
He mentioned they will get the Sandjet equipment in mid-April - so that depends if he meant on site or in country.
Fox Davies has the wireless testing results scheduled around end April.
The coiled tubing is stated as end April though on preso which is a bit different to what he says himself.
This makes me rethink my own dates of late April/early May for results. More to early-mid May at soonest.
Got to love O&G timelines but only 9 months after originally proposed date because eyes were off the ball!!
The bold
I'm curious where your dates are from on rigless testing? Thanks
Let's look at CNG, if gas flows there is an agreement ready-to-go for gas sales where 120bcf nets $1.56bn. Now, if flow rates are in excess of that expected it be 2-300 bcf that is contemplated for sale.
That might be 3% or less or the prospective resources (outside Mou-5) and if allowing sale of 3% for a material amount allows 20-30x that to be proven.up I'd say it constitutes a good deal.
Added bonus if it yields a divi/puts a stronger base under the SP. That could be the case after Sandjet so end April/early May if targets met.
Gudin
The idea being, if majors aren't biting (500 TCF isn't enough it seems!!!) Then using PE to fund CNG and share profit along with an upfront fee allows PRD to drill, test and prove.
Only hope the test bit is quicker than in the past or I'll be PG's age by the time they finish it on 25 years.
Should add that despite the delays the potential reward remains strong just extended timelines continue to frustrate a bit. Even taking into account usual O&G fun and games.
wouldn't advocate the hoopla that existed around sound and talk of golden tickets. many people lost a significant amount as a result of it.
nor would i advocate telling pis to **** off somewhere else if you don't like management taking their eye off the ball by their own admission leading to delays currently running around 7 months to proposed sept testing.
i'm sure there is a happy middle ground.
as for pe, if grh knows something he is then an insider otherwise chat about bank managers being happy soon, goes along with his sept pronouncements about imminent.
we don't know the timings but management shouldn't be obstructing them with lack of attention.
things can move fast and change quickly so let's see what april brings. hopefully.testing, finally.