Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
the dream team haven't yet become a nightmare but if pg says t&t is just as exciting as morocco then i'm surprised and makes me sceptical for the multi-tcf case so many people make for guercif.
with all the time spent in morocco but t&t getting worked over possibly before guercif is flow tested is very odd timing wise.
they were meant to do sandjet months ago so how did the admin faux pas not come up then - this seems rather convenient or they don't know their ****s from their elbows.
still nothing definitive on testing really and it is **** poor.
The silence is frustrating and if not for the reasons of commercial confidentiality due to negs and pushing on with testing then PG/Lonnie will really need a good story to convince.
Ibiza 28
Would add that Eco after two drills had an MCAP of £300-350m where their net was 45m barrels. Now in that there was hope value for the rest of the licence, which applies here too. That was also offshore.
Would suggest good flow rates should prove more than 45m barrels of oil equivalent. That £350m at 85% is maybe 55-50p so perhaps I'm a bit overly cautious
Ibiza28
Hate to rain on your parade but think any initial announcement will maybe take us to 30-50p range. Depending what stage they are at, if they have tested of if they've just agreed an MOU.
There would as part of the pre-sale of gas be a payment freeing cash for drilling to test the depths, perimeters and flow rates of the key zones (MOU1 etc).
As this testing progresses if successful then there might be staged further payments if these are agreed up front or negotiations. Even if staged payments are agreed up front I'd imagine time is needed for the interpretation of results too at each stage.
Hi BRV
Ultimately people do bear their own responsibility and depending on age/health/earning potential make decisions based on their own risk/reward factors.
For all of us I hope there is a successful outcome but as you say - ain't no such thing as a sure thing.
The posting from KeithOz/GRH and others does help the decision making process and stimulate one's own research.
If PG is confident, I do wonder if he wants a big bang solution to remove the "wall of worry".
(Ie a sale announcement for x £/p so people don't have to keep top slicing on news up the curve of results). Seems testing needed for that though and possibly drilling.
Thanks Ford707 - I've done so and also at Keith Oz posts.
While disappointed by the silence the risk/reward is still pretty good, so remain invested.
Was on a call with CEO/CFO of a chemicals company yesterday (big but not Ineos big) and they see quite a mixed 2024 outlook. Hence, an injection of urgency would be no bad thing IMO.
Ah - thought it had been on here.
Thanks for clarification.
Note that GRH mentioned previously opining on Sound and various others but has been a member since only 2018.
Does anyone know what his previous nom de plume was?
Still baffled by the absence of testing having raised specifically for those purposes.
People trumpet T&T deal but frankly I don't see how that compares to the catalysts people expect with their multi-TCF numbers from Guercif.
An MOU isn't legally binding and doesn't provide a base for a contract if the other party is minded to change their terms following testing so to need one before executing the other just seems like a logical fallacy.
There are some serious issues economically and as markets potentially feel the strain then E&P budgets can get rained in and multiples/appetite can narrow considerably.
If the board think the gas is there then ffs get on and prove it up.
He might think testing is for retail but a) the other party in the MOU is taking their sweet time and not pressured obviously by PRD and b) don't see majors knocking the door down to buy without testing or why raise?
Yes people mentioned the bluff but a 4 month bluff is another fallacy - if they were negotiating with majors they wouldn't have been taking time out for a couple of diet coke bottles a day production from Corey Mugua.
Something seems amiss or doesn't fully add up.
Castlemartin
Nobody said it was an AIM stick just drew a comparison
Interesting to see what news can do to a stock, looking at Hotel Chocolat today. Someone did mention to me Sunday that an AIM stock (they advise food and drink) would have a takeover this week.
Too many choices didn't think about trading it but HC did come up as it has had challenges but is good concept. Anyway, up nearly 200% on the day yet out board want to wait to test instead of getting strong news out there - seems odd to me.
Don't hold any currently but will be buying back hopefully before any farm out/drill announcement. With govt sign off I'd be surprised if there are not some interested parties keen to know more if not champing at the bit
Donalb
Germany are doing likewise while seeeeking to build out LNG capability. They bought out a charter on a vessel I previously managed debt on and its sister ship. One to store LNG quayside and one to act as Shuttle bringing LNG supply in. Sensible really we need better storage here in UK too
Haven't been compared to GG before - great film with fantastic subplot around who the characters represent.
Of the time I still look back and think of Hanson and the behemoth James H and Gordy W built at the time. Knocked Goldsmith for 6 and Milken was quite a character.
I think Keith provides a lot of interesting info and it's referenced and easy to form an opinion on. He does so with less of the bombast of the other venerated poster on here. There is no harm in speculation and he is clear that he is not inside as far as company is concerned and therefore making inferences.
We are all social beasts at heart and being able to discuss what people think is happening openly is important including critique where warranted so I welcome his input along with those with opposing views (except where parrotted with no differentiation 15x a day as was happening with one poster).
Androcles
Was glad to be out of sound by then - my biggest worry here was always ending up with similar never ending promises but think PG is rather different to how James P turned out.
Ibiza28
Not the longest straw, multiple wells could be drilled in to a larger field and agreements between parties reached on a licence fee for extracting an amount above their agreed production/extraction levels.
The upfront payment is in the high tens millions/low hundreds because of CNG cost it isn't to sell entire business
Shortshrift
He may not be the messiah, just a very naughty boy.
A great quote from great film if you know it.
Donalb
France generally does whatever France wants and protects its dodgy export markets over international order at times. Whe Iran was sanctioned in 80s you'd always see Peugots etc cruising about when the news was on as they kept selling into them and always have. Understand much of the ceramics and hardware for reactors over the years have come from French companies.
Macron kept trying to be the go between with Putin as well. They're an ally of course but I'd always keep a watchful eye.
If we had done more of the same we'd have more manufacturing left and probably still be in EU as there would have been less resentment.
Que sera sera
Sefton82
It's often the case with founders, hubris can come too easily and from their lofty perch feel there is no need to converse with/look out for the 'little guy'. Robert Trice was similar with Hurricane he wanted to prove the big boys wrong and was headstrong.
Like yourself believe there is commercial gas there but the more deadlines are missed, the more credibility can be damaged/eroded and if they need to come to market the harder it may be.
For those that say PRD hold all the cards, if they did the GSA would be signed by now.
Hopefully, any wrinkles can be resolved and who knows his highness might deign to share via RNS when they do commence testing.