Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
GRH has mentioned this is in terms of market cap not with regard to the original 1.5p.share price. Hence, I'd suggest the reference point is a market cap of c.£1.5-3bn depending on entry point.
That is obviously still quite a journey from where we are today.
Successfully Phase1 probably gets this to 25-40% of the way to the lower bound (£1.5bn MCAP) of this range.
Notice they state " the pipeline is a benefit for any future developer of the MOU-5 asset"
Seems clear a prove up and sell strategy.
CCC
Re your Shaikan post, great analogy
At the rugby club we used to have aname for such specimens, BOBFOC
Body Off Baywatch Face Off Crimewatch
KeithOz
Understand FoxDavies presence but more a friendly voice who is aligned on the success front to help BoD assess options.
BRV
Given the involvement of Arlfriquia Gaz and the PM I've had a sneaking suspicion a govt organised consortium might be making a bifd for assets on successful testing. This allows AG to get CNG up and running for commercial purposes and potentially allow PRD to drill the Jurassic and then bring in a major to develop the wider field if the assets are shown to be sufficiently commercial.
Appointment of an Investment Bank as advisor would have needed an RNS - employing a consultant experiences in such a arena who may not need much remuneration as already has a significant stake in the success case would not need an RNS.
Bowls'd
Would say this is a sensible timeline perhaps even beyond as Morroccan authorities will want to ve confident of any announcements too.
For KeithOz - wlud just say ordinarily NPV of a project doesn't equate to Shareholder value due to execution risk etc but when one considers the follow on potential etc which you mention but deliberately didn't factor then something between the 60-150p price level on successful tests would seem achievable.
GLA
Don't think we're at the stage of suitors yet but clearly GRH has a good relationship with the Board. Hence, wonder if silence is related to NDA/being inside for purposes of considering strategic options as results come in.
Equally may just be on holiday/chilling out.
Not sure we will see the 12 bag fireworks of HE1 in the short term but if the testing can prove up 250/500/750 before then it could certainly move the SP significantly.
The further sandjet testing and Jurassic drilling would potentially then multiply from that new higher base if demonstrating the upper range numbers of >1TCF.
First news sometime in February.
Having posted about Cove yesterday, I wonder how far down the Cove road we are and how much further the current test schedule takes us.
Price action clearly positive currently.
Wr have drilled obviously numerous locations and now testing various zones.
Given the different ownership dynamics in terms of proportion of asset owned we don't necessarily need the multi TCF of the Cove site to achieve the gains.
To get above the high BCF/1.5TCF figure then it probably needs the Jurassic to come in strong. Some really interesting times ahead.
Sorry Cove had only 8.5%....small but important typo
Hopefully something they can learn as they go Keith to plan for next drill.
Noting references to MOU-2 and Cove - Cove completed several drills (5+) and extensive flow testing to prove the case. They were then talking in the 35TCF + case offshore but only had 85%.
The £1.2bn for Cove is a handy price here and with stakeholding difference in the licence and onshore costs not offshore probably only equates to 1.0-1.5TCF on our licence.
If the Jurassic an be drilled and flow tests conducted with perforation gun and sandjet that should be well within realm of possibility one would expect.
Let testing commence.....
Alas there will be those clamouring for info but frankly a day here or there isn't a big deal. They may even commence testing without notifying particularly if they hope to get strong early results to give a more significant update.
If we get to mid-Feb without an RNS then I'd have an issue but to be chucking toys out of the pram when they could start today and RNS tomorrow is a bit pathetic.
Most O&G companies miss deadlines including majors so accord some leeway or bugger off and buy IBM/Nat West/Sainsburys where the plodding pace and dull predictability may suit your temperament better.
Would add to above nothing usually goes up in a straight line and there will (rightly) be profit taking along the way if opportunity presents.
Predicting £15 plus is not necessarily pie in the sky but isn't going to be seen anytime soon. The initial testing is to get CNG off the ground and show it is commercial. Depending on mmcf rates of flow then there are various suggested NPV scenarios all equating to £1.80 or less if I recall I've the life of the project. Hence, expect this to be discounted back further but if 20mmcf per day then I'd expect 30-50p range.
If it can show connectivity then it may go higher than this range and if above 20mmcf significantly then the range above may be lower than the outcome.
Still nothing is guaranteed and it would take much time and activity to prove the major prize we hope is there. With a Jurassic drill it potentially starts to demonstrate higher levels of value.
As far as TSR goes, perhaps if gas (and other substances) return testing results in commercial qualities the business intends to package and sell to Morroccan govt and/or other operators.
Congrats Silverfoil - probably a fantastic milestone. Hope you can enjoy family and hobbies as well as lie-ins.
I've a few years yet (in 40s), gives me some time to tweak my golf game before enjoying some of the lovely links courses around me when the big day comes.
What funding issues is he alluding to, as he even read the RNS. If initial testing is known and comes back positively in February I'd hope 15.9p is a distant memory!!!
Fundamentals trump technicals
This should continue to run in the period leading up to testing which is barely but a week away.
Should testing demonstrate the feasibility of the CNG at 20mcf or.more than many times the NPV of the CNG has been posited for c.50mcf a day levels. Showing the gas in other areas then sees the testing being further value accretive.
The market is a strange mistress and while we can look at NPV calcs it isn't a given as/when the market sees the light but the process seems underway.
Good to see the proposed plans, resources at CM look good, 20mcf per day perhaps a bit lower than suggested but under promise and over deliver. Seems a measured statement overall. Interested to see the Guercif ITR - they've fired the starting gun so now to see What Lies Beneath.
GLA
Chesh
The RNS mentioned as early as possible in Jan'24 so I think on reflection perhaps the latter part of Jan rather than earlier - possibly sliding to Feb. However, so long as it doesn't take too long then holder's are in for the results.
See the announcement alone bumping the SP quite a bit.