Member Info for Infor

Similar problem I think, Capricorn shareholders get only 10.3% of the 'new' company, all stock but interestingly Capricorn were able to pay out a massive dividend prior to this due to a huge tax refund from the Indian Government. Capricorn have a small t/o relative to NewMed, so this is a reverse takeover with large reserves. To be honest, it looks a good deal because the reserves, diversity in NewMed's portfolio and emphasis being made on shareholder return (32p per share being paid this month!)

It's kicking off at Capricorn, we need the same here!
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/lg-plans-vote-against-capricorn-leadership-newmed-merger-2023-01-16/

I think we can conclude since the announcement, that the market thinks this is a bad deal that grossly undervalues Serica Energy and will do nothing to grow shareholder return. I don't see many of the Board putting their money where their mouth is, probably because they've just cashed in their massive Christmas bonuses shares.

'On the basis of the Serica closing price as of 19 December 2022 of 278 pence per share, this would be equivalent to £367 million'
What if the share price had been more realistic @ ~400 pence, or even ~350 pence? Was the deal to hand over 28.9% of the share capital regardless, or was it based on £367m? At 350 pence this make the deal worth £291m or 22.9% of share capital.
It begs the question, could the SP been manipulated in the lead up to the announcement?

More cash in the coffers next week - turning cold.

Looks like these have massive potential - why didn't I see these guys earlier! Sack their PR people!

Didn't realise HL hold over 16% of the shares. According to the presentation they are generating income now. When is the next quarterly review?

I think these look cheap: https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1602613526027276291?t=ArIEpII3-ufuVcN8CASsDQ&s=08

I've voted no. It's all about the lack of prospects of shareholder returns by tying up our cash in a heavily debt laden NS asset being controlled by a team who are set on a sweet exit. Total lack of imagination and full of complexity.

Having a punt on SYN - Looks exciting!

Completely new to Synergia, I've looked briefly at their website and I am not clear what their business model is and when they hope to generate any sort of income. Is it carbon capture or extracting NG?

Also, in changing from EGM to OGM, it gives you the option to vote again on HL, but does say if you have already please do not vote again. Weird, why give you the option to vote again? I have voted again anyway just in case.

Well done guys for pointing out you can now vote:
AUTHORISE ISSUE OF EQUITY IN CONNECTION WITH THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION OF TAILWIND ENERGY INVESTMENTS LTD (A response to this proposal is mandatory)

'Tailwind has arrangements in place with Mercuria for the marketing of its oil production and hedging required for the purposes of their RBL.......'
This is rather crucial I would have thought. SQZ need to be happy with the positions they are taking on now and in the future. These positions can run into the $100ms.

Net Debt = Short-Term Debt + Long-Term Debt – Cash and Equivalents.
£277m = ?short term debt + £330m - ?cash - ?hedging advances
I guess these hedging advances are with Mercuria? I wonder what the positions were as at 20th December?

On a personal front what I don't like is, from a position of having an unenviable amount of cash and the therefore the opportunity to deliver returns to shareholders, as well as invest in something more transitional and less complicated, they've decided to tie up this cash in an expensive 'takeover' in assets that might stave off the effects of the WFT and provides a nice exit to the new senior managers who have probably taken, as far as they can, all the cash out of Tailwind (why wouldn't you!). Mitch was going to tell us how much debt the 'five' had repaid during 2022. As a shareholder I ask myself would Mitch repay us if he didn't have to? Mitch said Mercuria are not receiving any of the cash, ok that's fine but what galls me, is the real possibility that the 'five' have taken huge amounts out during the record year that was 2022 without repaying any significant part of the loan, they get another £50m+ in shares in Serica and the £58.7m in cash (again why wouldn't you - it's a private company).
The crash in SP in the run up to the original announcement, was this because of the Christmas bonus shares being cashed in? North Eigg? One could argue that Mercuria have received at least 15% more shares than they ought have.
If they pay £367m + £50m (3.9%) + £58.7m for nearly 30% stake in serica, this values Serica at £1.55bn. The market certainly does see it like that.

It's clear the market hate this deal. It's seems to be in free fall now. At what stage does one jump back in?

Pretty much, 2.7% dividend yield - hardly anything to write home about, SP -17% in 12 months, should have, and probably have, come up with plans to mitigate the effects of the WFT, She needs to sell HBR to the market better.

The fact remains, 12 months on HBR share price is down a massive 17% having had the best trading conditions ever. BP up 29%. Market still doesn't see it whilst it's staring us in the face. Linda will have to come up with the goods next Thursday if she is to keep her job.

Having listened to Mitch (again), it feels a bit like BT only giving their 'special offers' to new customers. I would feel a lot better if it wasn't all 'jam tomorrow' promises for us shareholders. The market hasn't exactly taken the SP to new highs and I sensed that the 'returns for shareholders' that Mitch glossed over, are not going to happen any time soon. I am sure that the Serica team are crawling all over the Tailwind figures, but it's surprising the lack of expert analysis coming forward regarding the deal, I guess because of the lack of up date accounts of the Company we are actually buying. So we can only go on Mitch's word for it - is this good enough?