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celtics you make a good point but my understanding is that some of the samples didn't purely rely on AN for collection and thereby got a 'false' sensitivity boost.
I think some existing tests eg. Innova could currently clearly outcompete if it was just a question of price and scale - notwithstanding affimers are likely to cost less to produce. But that really isn't the issue. The issue is providing the best performing / most adaptable AN test for a price that makes people think of themselves as daft for even considering cheaper inferior alternatives.
We don't actually know what the sensitivity of an Innova test used AN style is. But lets hypothetically overstate it as being 80%. Well you need to take 2 innova tests to get to 96% likelihood of finding a positive case. So if hypothetically Avacta is 96% it needs only one test to achieve the same result. Even if Avacta test costs double as much it is worth it for better convenience, reduced logistics and postage cost and lower false positives plus all the other test advantages mentioned in this thread.
Good thread - as I said yesterday Radia you would think that Avacta will get the larger study to map the smaller one as closely as possible in terms of CT values and that this would facilitate very similar results.
He has referred in previous talks to Avacta not just contracting with manufacturers to produce the lfd but some potentially taking the reagents to validate their own test.
Well Sir Al said 75% of staff resource is focused on LFT when talking about BAMS not being the immediate priority. I don't think its dead - still a guage for therapy and cheaper than PCR so still a good role for it but Avacta's near term success hinges on making a great success of LFT so if he found it necessary to leave Bruker to make the push with it then so be it.
spread bet it is. I have a feeling that there will be a base in the low 260s this week and that even if large study results don't come there will be close to 3 quid with FOMOing at the mouth by friday
ajbellyouinvest do bed and isa for anyone wanting to invest from scratch now or transfer
JVetch - here is my take on sensitivity
1. Affimers are batch consistent
2.so when the small scale study failed to identify one positive in 30 this would have probably not been a weakness in the reagents in that particular kit but more about it being the same at the least infectious/most difficult to detect end.
3. if there are 200 positives in the larger study they will surely fairly accurately map the CT range in the smaller study and thus given points 1 and 2 I would expect the results to fairly accurately map as well. Specifically I think 6 or 7 failures out of 200 is a very likely outcome if the mapping has been very accurate (97 or 96.5 sensitivity) and 5 and 8 would also be a distinct possibility (97.5 and 96). If mapping is a bit less precise then maybe 4 and 9 (98 and 95.5) and 3 and 10 (98.5 and 95) also come into play. Playing against anything lower and towards the higher end is the fact that we know affimers have incredible sensitivity in the Elisa test and the lab test of the LFD.
4. I think all of the above to be excellent outcomes and like better than what can be achieved with antibody or even aptamer regents. In the low percentage scenario that we are not the best test, I still see us finding plenty of outlets globally for sales and the sp holding up reasonably well in the short term and growing considerably over the long term
I am so enthused about the rebound - so much strength here as a platform for fomo to kick in more fully this afternoon and next week. We could still hit 3 quid before results of the large study come in.
Yeah, by contrast Wall hasn't exactly given us a rationale to jump ship to ODX. Sure it may do a small or medium gain over the next two years but will it be able to sustain momentum with barely any IP
I swtiched by ODX holding to ABDX Goldtrig - bigspread but if your thesis is that Avacta will almost certainly sell vast numbers of LFDs then ABDX is clearly going to do well out of that. Mostly held by instis and insiders.
Goldtrig if ODX only holders as a whole cotton on to the fact that its extremely likely to be the Avacta test many would seriously cut their ODX holding and load up on Avacta instead - a low risk opportunity for a massive gain is better for most people than an even lower risk opportunity for a small/medium gain. If you hold ODX you have to be worried that it could drop significantly on this (before recovering later as bargain hunters come in). And that explains why some ODX only holders are pushing a very negative Avacta narrative - folk like ODX forever, MB, Snoopdogg etc..
Aptamer have manufacturing? They are very small. Couldn't afford to make enough test kits to go through porton down and got .25m govmt support to start going through. Mologic regularly help other companies with their tests - if you look at their website its one of their income streams. So nothing out of the ordinary. The main point is that they contracted with Avacta to give latter manufacturing capacity
McGurk it may be that they simply don't have capacity due to already being signed up to manufacture for Avacta
G
Not selling near term but, because this is now over half my portfolio by value, I am only buying humous on the dips front.
it went down so we could use the same amount of money to buy more of it.
its just a giant treeshake - not enough folk were selling at the high prices so MMs trying to scare them to dump their shares.
In a few months sales and orders will be so good, derampers will be talking this down from a tenner
VW needs before 2030 are just a drop of what Tesla needs