The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
I'm concerned ...about capital gains tax
Some Nyct holders looking a little oversensitive today, the PCR tale is looking a bit fragmented.
Mines a white Covfefe Merchant - with lots of sugar to offset the bitterness,
Don't worry you will soon be producing. Love Avacta X
Agreed. He's already got his new house, new curtains and new shumpers. Will now be even less driven by pure material considerations and even more by making a giant success of this.
Its not unrealistic as a pssible projection. With Ava alone being successful this could hit 50 quid
Also Paul responds to @Afamaman by saying that they will also be talking about BAMS
yes on point 3 I agree - so many machines and other materials bought by government that I would be surprised if they have mostly sewn up their own needs and Avacta can both supply test into that and continue pursuing other manufacturing for elsewhere. Its going to be big, assuming cv goes pretty reasonably.
Trendz, lots of posters are saying do some research and of course you need to in order to make a comparison. But what concerns me more is that the style of question itself reflects a naivety. Stock market valuations are principally forward looking - cold hard cash is always useful but if its not going to be rolling in for any real length of time and there is not much of a plan in terms of what to do with it then you will get a low PE. On the other hand a company like Avacta is only just starting to show ability to turn a profit but has all of what the previous posters note going for it.
Paul says to discuss licensing but I believe there was also previously talk of discussing BAMS - I think BAMS is likely to be our next RNS - and could easily drop on monday and provide an excellent talking point. Not deramping the larger LFD study - that could also drop any minute but could equally take a couple more weeks.
Exactly. What's the benchmark anyway
- there is no decent AN/saliva based validated test
- you can't compare Innova because its not validated with either of those collection methods
- sure its being used AN style at the moment but that's inconsistent with manufacturer instructions and we don't know the effect of doing that on its performance.
-Mologic produced one with low 90s sensitivity on small scale study versus our 97 odd per cent. Who would even give 5% odds of them doing better in a large study for sensitivity than us? I wouldn't and that's not just because of my reading of the stats but because we know that Avacta was the most sensitive performer in the lab too.
On specificity the quality of affimers makes it logical to think there is a very high chance we will be at or an extremely small distance from the 100 per cent achieved in the small scale study.
5% chance the test does not CV well and sell well is the highest I would go. In any case with I was Alistair I would have progressed on from the small scale study whilst organising the RNS, in order to gain a further basis for confidence for release. He's a smart cookie.
that isn't every other week MDN. maybe every other month. And some of those were high risk punts that came good rather than being specifically undervalued. this is undervalued. Look at the stifel note. Just a bunch of farcically understated assumptions and several missing components - most absurd were the assumptions about lfd sales - understated by a factor of 10 just from from we know let alone what is likely coming if it is the best AN test
NdN why would CV numbers need to be off the charts? I would be extremely happy if its, say 96 and 99.9. Where is the competition anyway? None anywhere near our levels for an AN collection method test.
I have a massive beard but I'm not trimming the ****er until it starts dragging on the floor or the share somehow get insanely overvalued which I can't see happening because the main problem is that a lot of people just don't get how massive its potential is. I once had 250k in Tesla at around 250 old money (3500 new money) and had to take some out to derisk for potential house build. However, I really overdid the selling. Specifically I could have kept 100k in and made over a million but ultimately actually only made about 200k. I mean its tidy but these multi multi bag undervalued opportunities don't come around often - when they do you need balls of steel to buy when people say probably sell and hold when you are sitting on tidy profits so that you can get potentially life changing ones. Just IMHO
Trying to keep a lid on my excitement here and not take anything for granted. Nonetheless, the chances of the different pieces of news on their way being positive is very high.
1. BAMS should be here by mid next week at the earliest - should bump the sp by 10 per cent or more and will surprise to upside in the long term
2. LFD larger study probably within 10 trading days or less - number will almost certainly differ a bit from small study but no reason to think there would be any surprise that would derail it becoming and staying the best appropriate sample collection method test on the market for a self administerable test and thus capturing massive share in the coming months.
3. At same time or nearby the point of release of larger study results I think we will get some further news on manufacturing and the government contract
4. By early April I would expect we would get more news on manufacturing and news of further contracts
If these four things come about, which seems highly likely, I think they will evince a scale of opportunity for profit that will cause serious re-rating. With further news on top in April and May I would expect us to be at least close to a tenner by June
I think lots of people will be in a relevantly similar situation to us by the way.
Speaking as a private consumer I just bought 100, not out of allegiance of being a shareholder but because of the clear value for my family. My wife works in a frontline medical setting but since she is not in ICU or doing operations she has bog standardish PPE - I think this will be a big improvement and I will recommend she use even though she be less prone to catching/transmitting due to having had a dose of vaccine. I am not going to suggest the family use them in very low risk settings like outdoors but certainly if we were indoors for a period - say dentist, shopping, doctors surgery etc. then it would be advisable. I anticipate we will use up ten or so a week as a family. Luckily we can afford that but what we can't afford so much is one or more of us becoming seriously ill or dying from covid which for us is a risk albeit not large.
Just think how many shumpers he could have bought if he stay in.
Zoom - I hear ODX forever has an anchor on his arm with the word Merchant above. Given that he is only 12 it is probably just a transfer sticker.
pumping portage biotech isn't he?