The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
you quite right Matt - everyone should sell down when their circumstances call for that but I just don't see any case for selling a bean otherwise either in the short or the long term. Obviously you might think at some points that its worth trading in and out of but this is a Jack in the box share with all sorts of surprises to the upside over years and years
Porky - have you read the Fool piece - its just pure bait and switch tactics with no useful appreciation of what the company is doing/about to do? Then lets consider your mention of the clinical side where clearly you don't know that PreCision will not require a Phase 3. And finally you biased language of the LFT - 'can't get it validated' you say - either being ignorant or deliberately misleading about the fact that it could have CE marked already but chose to undertake a much larger study in order to get a really robust stats that, if simply approximately replicative of the smaller study, will position it head and shoulders above all other LFTs and enable it to attract a considerable portion of manufacturing and sales in an absolutely enormous global LFT market. You can go away now because these are just facts which show you are basically talking crap.
we discussed this months ago when it was doing trials at heathrow. It was a damp squib then and is not much better than a zombie now.
pardariff - you make an excellent point about antibodies - we see so many current devpmts still relying on them and I think over the next few years we are really going to see a big shift to affimers and to the sp from that. This is such a great long term share.
I hope you are right scaredy -saw the same at Tesla a year and a half ago - went from overpromising and underdelivering on timelines to seemingly deliberately doing the opposite and the market loved it. AS must now he has a rep and dispelling it here would be an excellent move for senitment. Lets hope that two weeks on from the interview he now has all the data and is going to crunch it over the weekend for presentation on monday. Or that he has it by monday ready to present on tuesday or wednesday.
yep the perhaps before a year really at best suggests this is going down to the wire of whether its a year, slightly less or even slightly more. Maybe it will complete toward the end of next week and then there will be a bit of time needed to analyse and present the data, which then comes out in rns on tues 6th April or Wednesday 7. That would do people a favour capital gains tax wise!
OK Goldtrig - 12th March is about 4 weeks into the study - so he should have been able to predict from what has already been collected how much longer was left for the study give or take a week. End of q1 is the 31st so that would suggest between now and the end of the week beginning Easter monday. A 'few' is often more than 2 so that points more towards week beginning Easter monday. And he also referred in the VOX interview to the success of being able to get the test out in a year (7th April?) and then qualifies that by pointing to likelihood of it being a bit less. So that also points towards week beginning Easter monday. Plus we know from experience that he tends to be on the late side and is loose with his words.
It matters psychologically because the MMs could continue driving this down which most of us here don't want as we are very loaded. However, ultimately if it spills into Easter monday week we are still just talking about most probably 5-6 more trading days in total, so an opportunity for both FOMO and leakiness to come in. And there's always the possibiliy its next week because of his CE/ISO by end of month prediction. The small difference of timing will make only a marginal difference in the end - as Mr Kipling's exceedingly good post pointed out the other day.
we might well get this pattern often until the study drops i.e. shake tree in morning if no RNS and up the price later in the day as people buy on chance of RNS the following day.
I can imagine that - that's how many of the pieces read. But as I said some US services are good - recommendations of David Gardiner has a long history of excellent performance in the round, consistently beating the market by large double digit amounts per year
As i think about this I realise I need to clear the decks a bit in next few days so as to have a good amount of loose cash around. If it gets those kinds of figures and opens at 380 it is an absolute steal, even when it hits a fiver its a bargain - it won't be long before the company can dramatically ramp production via additional and expanded manufacturing and end up by summer taking a part of the market that will be very sizable and enduring. Sure there are some execution risks and even risks of unforeseen events but these are very low risks weighed against likelihood of enough profit to warrant a 10, 15 or 20 quid share price within months
Some US Motley Fool services have a very good record - like shareadvisor and blastoff 2020. But what most of the public get to see is their disgusting bait and switch articles - should I buy x is the title and the content makes a half arsed effort to look at the pros and cons only to end with but something like but this stock doesnt fall into our top 10 recommendations right now click here to find out more.....Clearly purpose all along was just to get you to purchase their services not to give you any kind of good opinion on the stock in question
I agree with Starbright that even ODX is not derisked fully - no share ever is. I think what Avacta faces risk wise is perhaps at most a 5 per cent risk of a large study disappointing enough to severely dent the sp and at least a 90 per cent chance of a result that allows them to lever high sales and profits and bag the sp by anything from 1 to as much as 10 times within the next year or so (depending partly on just how good the test is as well as execution). I find those extremely attractive odds and its why I am very balls deep and my Avct holding is 15 x my Abdx holding. So I wouldn't not characterise it as a high risk share at all, especially when there are so many other lines of activity that can come good for it. I mean consider how many recent licensing deals it has bagged and how these have added maybe 30 or 40p to the sp between them. There is no reason to think there will not be more of that and expanded partnership activity too.
I was an ODX holder and if it does drop on news here I will try and get back in. Both co's have more than ten bagged in last year. Future wise I think Avct has a massive runway. ODX doesn't to anything like the same degree but it does have a really strong and solid few years on the way and may be double sp by the end of that time frame - certainly higher than now unless they really mess up.
Urbansea - I will try and hold off for the reason you say - certainly open mind toward keeping the holding until I feel the prospects of the share are more fully priced in - which might be closer to the end of 21 and much much higher than a tenner. With therapeutics its a different ball game in terms of most therapies falling by the wayside in clinical trials. However, here we have several lines each with a number of targets within them and some with unusually good chances of getting through, including some that won't need a phase III. So I have a feeling that we are going to end up with a pretty rich seam. And the diagnostics will continue to be a dark horse.
I'm extremely firm Andy Sujood. Give me another pep talk when it hits a tenner as I might be wavering toward a slice strategy then.
there is a short term risk of many ODX holders decamping to AVCT on expectation/actuality of good larger study and subsequent manufacturing and sales contract reveals. That could depress ODX price somewhat for a few weeks or even a few months. Should that occur it would then be a stronger value proposition. ABDX is already more depressed and arguably has more upside potential.
Having listened to Vox I would be surprised if it comes this week. End of next week a good chance and if not then certainly within the shortened Easter week.
the thing is Wyndrum that EU is a half way house towards a federation of states - in this case they could only make a collective decision on vaccines via all of the member states signing off - a chronically unwieldly approach when deterousness, swiftness and decisiveness in decision-making were needed. Naturally on such an issue they wanted to be seen to have solidarity by taking a joint approach but having decided they wanted to do that they really ought to have had a mechanism to simply defer to the EU to make a decision for all.
Quick, someone call G.Brandon for a microtox unit, a turdle has washed up on the board.
Yes I was simply making the point that there is a heck of a lot of wriggle room for costs/profit in the scenario given - one could sell it at double innova cost and it would still be daft not to buy it. As for how they actually price it, I think they can get it out for about a fiver for HMG on HMG machines and still make almost two quid profit with the manufacturer making one quid and the rest for materials, packaging and warehousing/logistics