focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Could be tricky to measure it like that with so many things just starting up and so much more in the works. The LFT has clearly been the principal factor in the sp doubling this calendar year and was already a little priced in before then so I would say market is attributing as much as 300m of the mcap too it. Even the very base case scenario of 5m tests per month @2gbp profit per test would recoup that in the space of 30 months. Everything else in terms of level of manufacturing and longeivty of testing could be considered upside potential for SP. 30m which AS talked about and is still v.low would bring 1.5 billion more profit to factor into the upside on those profit per test and longevity of testing calculations
Plus she's a nurse so maybe in one of the most exposed settings
2 bleeders in my PF - this and SAE. Apologies for being ill informed but Is May just a big advertising thing or is there more in the next few months that could reverse the course back?
night after a homemade veg curry and roti. Roti no longer quite soft enough to eat on their own but still perfect as a base, add the curry and then lashings of cheese on top.
more than 1 per cent across family accounts. NDN is probably right that if this hits 8 quid medium term its also going a lot higher. 8 quid would be representative of a major breakthrough in manufacturing/licensing capacity. There is no good reason why such a breakthrough would not be expanded on. Indeed, my thesis is that once we have decent capacity going out into the market existing players will start to worry about their mid/long term viability of sales of much inferior tests and may start beating a door to Wetherby to license. Its a potential snowball effect that could end with us dominating the market.
don't worry it will be along shortly...
I am hoping we get more comprehensively to the end of businesses being able to externalise the costs of damage they do to the environment and as a part of that localization being prioritized rather than simply cost. I also think there is a massive naivety, short-termism and toughing in Western thinking. We allow all this stuff to be outsourced to China etc. to the point where we end up with limited competencies and limited self-resilience. In UK worsened by a moribund form of capitalism that is overly reliant on increasing land/property values. And dependence of that kind is never good and especially not when it is dependence on totalitarian expansionist regimes (China esp.)
1.5b is an insane Innova number but going forward it should also serve as an embarrassment for the UK Govmt and European governments. They all ought to be pulling their finger out and supporting AVCT get manufacturing of its test scaled up quickly to a degree where it can fully play the massive role it is capable of in reducing R in Europe and globally. It should be left just to deep private pockets like Medusa.
I think you managed to get 10p worth YP
GKB - patriotism is voting for the national interest not the personal one and enlightened self interest is about thinking about the type of country and world you want to live in. I am hoping this exposure of what this govmt is actually like continues. Those who voted tory out of antipathy for Corbyn no longer have that as an excuse. We are going toward medieval levels of corruption and self-servingness in the operation of govmt. And it matters. All the cronyism and corruption means that contracts go to the wrong folk, things don't get dome competently and, in this case, people don't even get paid in a timely way. We don't have a proper Test and Trace FFS and for a long time we didn't have enough PPE and we ignored numerous companies with experience of making ventilators to work with self interested folk like Dyson.
Its obviously overvalued for those daft enough to be backward looking and, IMHO, clearly undervalued on forward potential. Doubled my shares at 54.
A good point made on the AVCT board is that ABDX could sell its whole capaX from the AVCT test alone. Indeed, they could build a large further capaX ramp off it as the demand will be that great.
Another good point notes the smart approach of ABDX to ramp shifts for production of ABC test now - because of the long shelf life it doesnt matter if they build a stockpile - indeed, its a good thing as they will then be able to switch out resources m0ore heavily to the AVCT test when they are ready to produce it (as well as any other antigen tests they are about to produce).
Sleepydave - there are obviously different parts of the govmt but the only bit that's been helpful here is the political will to bring co-operation to the table - UKRTC and UKRATC. Even that you could arguae is a fly trap if it gets you set up and enthusiastic to work through government channels only to be stuck by their slow moving systems. Clearly not paying Abingdon in all this time constitutes a new low and coupled with what they seem to have done with NYCT it seems that all the emphasis on buying British is actually at least 50 per cent hollow and certainly takes second place to Delboyishness and Chumocracy in the current administration.
I got a chunk of Abingdon at 54 because its now a good recovery play - its can sell ABC abroad well enough (and for higher margins) and irrespective of Govmt will do extremely well from its partnership with Avacta. Even if it takes a year I expect it to get back above a quid and eventually march on. I expect it will get the money from govmt one way or another and judging from the expansion of staffing it is still able to act in a sufficiently free way to reasonably tee up its future earnings if not as well as it might have expected.
I was sorely tempted at 370 but didn't pull the trigger as don't yet know the investment case well enough. Anyway congrats to all on the rise from there.
Another positive Wyn post. I am off to lie down I can't take it
that's been Avacta for past year - the purgatory of waiting, then excitement (on good news), disappointment (usually on sp reaction) and then rinse and repeat. torture but ultimately very rewarding
In any case neutronic its poss you might be overthinking it? Govmt have bought machines, kit etc. and test owner will supply the magic strip. So Govmt create bilterals with manufacturers to use its stuff and for IP holder of the test to supply strip. if they want more they have to buy more kit and machines or contract for whole tests with whoever
Can't keep track of all these Turdles. Call Deepverge.
space its not a waste of money at all - it still pciks up a lot of positives that would otherwise go undetected. But if govmt don't sign up avacta that would be a real scandal given how superior it is. When I listened to AS late spring last year it was the edge of the dream stuff to produce a lft test this good, wonderful result.
thanks - getting truly fed up of some of the negative threads with derampers on them - this is a balm. I though inking contracts was a really good phrase - it suggests that some have been teed up and were just waiting for something - most likely in terms of manufacturers they don't need to wait for the formality of the CE and just needed the confirmation of excellent performance which was given on tuesday and elaborated on yesterday. Logically they should be inking this week or next to crack on with meeting the already substantial demand
Wiggly - why on earth would Avacta give access to affimers for NYCT to generate a competing test? Doesn't make any sense. On the other hand if NYCT wanted to use some f their cash pile to crank up kit and machinery to be a manufacturing partner for Avacta then why not...