The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Ndn false positive are decreasingly an issue because with the vax programme in operation the focus of testing changes to more targeted application to settings and contexts in which there is a particular risk over and above the average risk - ie. schools, health care workers, care homes, certain workplaces, prisons, airports etc. still that is masses of testing
its old stuff for us marik. It was a mediocre test persisted with for too long at a grave stretch when mologic was available and when proper efforts should have been made to speed along the development of domestic tests in general, including Affidx
No-one will pay 10b for Avacta now. maybe 2 or 3 in a bidding war if they can leverage the lft and other parts of the business effectively. Judging from this thread I think many holders would be happy. the avacta wait experience is less pleasant than being pulled through a hedge backwards. A hedge that gets thicker just as you think you are approaching its edge. It exudes potential but leaves you with uncertainty over when and to what degree that potential is going to be realised. I sound desperate to sell. But I am not. I am just desperate for a bloody change of mood from when are we gonna catch a fish to landing the feckers left, right and centre
no that's not what it is about. Its leveraging toyotas expertise in manufacturing to help lft manufacturers ramp
On the sovereign front Wyndrum I think if govmt have bought machinery and lots of other supplies, have contracts with GAD and ODX it makes no sense whatsoever not to go through with the sovereign production if you are DHSC, even if you don't end up ramping as much as originally intended. The need for testing hasn't gone away and Innova is embroiled in a scandal. Mologic not favoured as already noted. So stars are aligned for Avacta. In any normal situation we would or should have almost total confidence of that. With this govmt, however, we are left to temper our hopes and not to believe anything until we actually set it.
Yes as Ophidian says MHRA are for regulation of meds generally, rather like FDA is for the US (though somewhat broader because the F stands for Food). Porton Down's root trace to WW1 when the Germans tried to gas the Btisih forces with chlorine. It was set up to investigate and experiment with both defensive and coutermeasures in chemical warfare and later also biological and even radiological. As you can imagine it has a lot of expertise handling (as well as sometimes misusing) dangerous materials and that is probably why it is being utilised in this situation involving sars cov 2 virus samples.
If no rns in the interim then FOMO will in any case kick in on thursday at 8.16 am
the question then would be what size is the contract - how much govmt bought machinery is being brought to bear at assist. I was most disturbed by the Bethel tweeting talking about increasing the proportion of domestic made LFTs. Ie. it does not seem that they are set to cover the majority, let alone all, of their needs via avacta - at least not for a period. I would be begrudgingly happy though if, say on the monday presentation, we find that there is 25m worth of govmt contracted capacity in place with a clear roadmap for further ramp over the summer.
it was a bold statement implying that it was mutually expected that they would be sovereign subject to final negotiations
yes exactly, they allow an alternative validation process if equivalent to phase 3a isn't it? Also on self-test it is about doing an appropriate self use study and with that submitting for self use via the MHRA. It has been suggested on the boards that they have done such a study through MedUsa at Stockport with two of our intrepid holders trying to get in as subjects and although too late were able to mine some useful info off the Medusa rep
I believe he is busy with his new popular music band. Richie and the Four Top-Ups.
New releases include:
Barbie I need Your Lovin
Without Topping Up the One You Love (Life's Not Worth While)
I Can't Help Myself (Sugar Pie Honey Bunch of Top Ups)
Shake Me, Wake Me (When we get sales news)
You Keep Running Away (SP 250 and beyond)
I'm in a Different World (Global and Trading on Dreams)
What Is a Man (Who doesn't top up at 220)
Do What You Gotta Do (But don't blame me if you miss the 15% rise)
Still Water (Love from LTH runs deep)
River Deep – Mountain High (And Energy says that's just the affimer platform)
Just Seven Numbers (DOH One More Top Up Can Straighten Out My Life)
You Gotta Have Love in Your Heart (Or Prodoxa)
In These Test Changing Times
A Simple Game (of Patience)
Covid 19 (It's not the Way) Nature Planned It
FDA Keeper of the Castle
Ain't No Reagent (Like the One I've Got)
Are You Sensitive Enough
Its Alternative Facts TM. A new trading programme guaranteed to make you excellent money in the alternate universe where Mathematical Laws do not apply. 5 dollars a month. or an extra 5 with Ludicrous Bull**** Mode thrown in.
Enjoy your gloat and in turn we will celebrate our more substantial gains which you could well miss out on
when a cat gets thrown down ten stories and bounces up one it doesn't mean the cat is thriving.
We will hear something on therapy but it would be an embarassment if that was the main focus!
Wyndrum its a valid discussion. The parliamentary answer was instructive that Govmt intended to increase the proportion of domestically produced lfts used within the whole . Its positive but its also hedging and cautious. Presumably because at this stage they don't have enough visibility that they can meet demand from domestic production - depends how well ramp of machinery goes - and maybe also because they are still in negotiations with Avacta for both its test as sovereign and purchase of capacity linked to it - ie from GAD, ABDX, B BI and 'Others' which may also include linked negotiations with MedUSA for part of its capacity. There are a lot of moving parts and wheeler dealing to be done so requires a bit of patience.
On the Innova point specifically that you raise we can ask what happens if they don't run it down and offer them side by side? Public would get ****ed off at being given Innova crap when they know there is a great option. The only Avacta plus option that works when Avacta is available is a non-Avacta more specific test included as a follow on (more specific) test used in the event one tests positive. See discussion on boards a few weeks back
capacity linked to Avacta .
I have said before that what you are saying is a very likely scenario. They certainly have to use up most Innova prior to sovereign launch because no-one is going to want Innova when something better is available. Simultaneously they would want to get production of a sovereign test ramped and stockpiled for launch so that they don't run short.
Great thread folks. We want it now and waiting is purgatory but as Doze says we just need more patience for it to unfold.
I think this is the picture.
1. Big contract for long duration testing in state settings needed
2. likely continuation of free to use in other settings over a long period also
3. maximizing openess/reducing threat of new variants and reducing covid harm places the government with a strategic need to choose quality ie. avct
Timing points
1. sovereign deal could come any moment and so could other deals
2 but sovereign deal may somewhat influence scope for other deals and so delay on concluding it can have knock on effect. There may also be a plan on part of govmt to scale for a bit longer before going live - so deal may have already been concluded but not disclosable until later - possibly within next week or two if it was tied to the roadmap
3. should in any case get more news on capacity at the presentation on 21st. I am expecting big things on that front.
NDN is sore about named threads. To cut a long story short it appears that he feels that they are bullying. Whatever you do don't start a named thread that highlights somebody for trash talk de-ramping. We wouldn't want to hurt NDN's feelings.
ABDX down because of a big seller and ODX down probably just cos its a bit sh*te
one way would be for the seller to have the shares placed through the broker with instis and hnwi's. Same thing done a while back with phe. It would stop the downward price pressure and allow news to start being properly valued