The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Well Ray I would say CEO is a mixed bag on the commercial front. On the plus side he had the nouse to pick up two amazing platforms and to deliver numerous high quality partnerships that have put a floor of quite decent fundamentals under the company.
We can see the accelerated oncology side is on track but its still early days. And the ultimate value of it is speculative. Could be fook all or as much as a barrowload of billions. Worth the risk of being in for those who can wait.
On the 'rapid scale us of the diagnostics business' well it hasn't happened rapidly has it. Sure a great test has been validated but very late and hasn't been followed by a rapid scale up of commercialisation has it? I think As should just lay off words like rapid, soon and shortly as they make him sound like a joke. In fact his whole approach to articulating timeframes/managing expectations has made him and the company difficult to trust for many prospective/current investors. The company rapidly (in real time not AS time) needs to build up an integrity in the accuracy of its messaging.
I don't agree with Wiggly that nothing has changed. In substance many bought in or bought more in mid 2020, late 2020 and early 2021 at least partly for a narrative of near term high volume sales of affidx and possibly also BAMS. Those narratives have proved to be false. That means that most people who take their rose coloured spectacles off take will take any current and future narrative that the company provides with a pinch of salt, particularly on the diagnostics side but also to an extent more generally. They will ask what do we add to an AS timeline? Delivered 6 months late? A year? Not at all?
The only way around that is for company to remain tight lipped and actually start delivering at a level above the now minimum expectations.
Notwithstanding some weaknesses in this regard, I am not looking to get out of this at 150 (my appox. average). The narrative will likely move positively in the next 6 months partly through forces beyond management. I think one of these is Medusa which I reckon will be a channel for successful home use authorisation and massive sales. Meaningful share moving data from Ava 6k is more than a slim chance. So are new partnerships in diagnostics and therapy. And so is a takeover. I have much more belief in the platforms than the ability of management and believe a takeover is highly likely within two years at most and probably in less than one.
Affidx alone will get us to 2 quid within 6 months. A takeover after that would take us to a minimum of 4. I am royally fooked off but not selling a bean until 2 quid and then keeping half until it pops big or gets taken over.
Cra601 they didn't have to do the last webinar and doing it did the sp no good. However, that time expectations were high for contract announcements and the like and nothing happened. I think it would be wise not to have high expectations of contracts for this one. I am thinking its more incremental. So they might tell us how much they are currently producing and selling, maybe some good and possibly also bad news on tt as well as news on the rest of the business
Showing a solid base at these levels. Ready to pop when good news comes through.
rns coming Sujood?
Ha ha. Would become a meme stock with prices to the moon overnight.
Well I suppose you might conclude that the bottom end is firming - with all this good new you can't see it retrace into the 4s. Think of it as a stable base where if you have cash and haven't already got an outsized holding, its a pretty good point to accumulate (strengthening fundamentals with ever less downside and increasing upside potential).
good day for golf
Energy nice post but most acquirers will surely think about the vast size of the affimer cake and only the most anal would worry that a few small slivers have already been licensed out. The bigger issue with this, the diagnostics platform and frankly all aspects of the company is that whilst they amount to much more than the current mcap in value for avct they are worth a lot more again on top to a big acquirer who can throw money, personnel, expertise and connections at the job of extracting max commercial value out of them in a much more speedy fashion. I would say to an acquire co. is already worth billions and my main concern is that it gets taken out for less than a billion in the coming months before the sp has adjusted back upwards.
Geordieexpat 35m is defined capax (Medusa an undefined additional, maybe 50m). But that alone brings in mcap per year if produced and bought. I have no doubts whatsoever about the test - I know the validation could have been bigger but there is no reason to think our test is not the clear market leader due to the sensitivity based on affimers.
Market clearly has doubts about it being bought in that volume and that is a factor in low sp. Are these doubts merited notwithstanding quality of the test? To some extent yes because we haven't yet had any major contracts. We can't know for sure that we will. But we don't need such contracts to justify this sp - they merely act like a massive bonus if/when they come. And of course we have a deal of some sort with medusa who will sell the test like hotcakes.
I agree CB and NM. I think of it like a long term fishing trip. Paid for my spot and the bait and good chance we can reel in a bag or two from here sometime this calendar year.
anything is possible but this a multi pronged business which makes a tripling of the sp on news on the one lft aspect seem an almost crazy idea. But crazy things happen on aim like a more than halfing of the sp on the back of lack of news on one lft aspect.
Aim is daft. Of course regret not selling this at 180 - could have tripled down at these completely crazy prices
last time a major shareholder sold down share was at 6p and shares were sold at 20 per cent discount via a placing with hnwis and iis. I imagine if Mrs Y wants to sell her sizeable holding the method would be the same as it avoids overhang. I will buy at this price and more let alone a 20 per cent discount.
I don't know Tim Yeo but everything I have seen and heard made me take the provisional view that he both lacked dynamism and was not to be trusted to advance company interests in a significant way. This is a share that can dribble down when progress is not dynamic and I don't think many expected it to be with him at the helm. That has been part of the reason for the price drops. A new dynamic ceo will make this pop significantly, and a decent chair will add a bit more to boot. 5p just on those two bits of news
its a dumbass article complaining about a lockdown for one case when that one case has subsequently turned into dozens already. NZ are now in trouble. Mainly ultimately down to the fact that most other countries and the international community haven't banded together to take a zero covid approach. Stupid - but in this case stupidity that will keep a market in affdx going for many years
I still think in the likely worst case scenario affidx will give profit equivalent to current mcap per year for several years from the end of this year onwards. Vaccines do not reduce transmissability of delta. Death and serious harm/long covid will remain at very significant levels. Only a few countries will politically tolerate extreme lockdowns and most of the rest will be driven by hard headed economics, if nothing else, to test widely.
If we are going to anologise that Energy then we could hope that Avct would be worth more that 4.8 billion USD in 5-6 years time. That's more than 10 x the current mcap which I would happily settle for, assuming no dilution.
I like the way dvrg still wants to achieve something with its covid solutions but is not really relying on that sp wise - with the more everyday parts of the business being built up really nicely.
I think some holders are attracted to GJB at the helm and some maybe don't like his style or just have a bit of anti Irish prejudice. My early impression is that he's actually very astute and running the business well.
Some probably consider his engagement on boards and twitter as ramping. I look at it slightly differently - basically its part of his job to vocalise in an honest but positive and enthusiastic way what the company is doing and what its plans and opportunities are. I see this as especially part of the role of an AIM co CEO given that such co's can otherwise find it difficult to get a decent media presence and decent investor attention. He has a very creditable record as you both note. Delighted to have got back on board in significant quantity with this share a while back and looking at this as a medium to long term hold.
Sleaze was one of the factors resulting in last Tory longstanding rule coming to an end. Unfortunately when a party gets power for a long time its interest in public service tends to become increasingly secondary to servicing the private interest of politicans. On that front it is hard to think of a worse UK Government in modern times than this one.