Member Info for Inferno

This is a good guide as ever for sentiment - Let’s see how the market responds to Next, it’s fairly clear I would suggest - massive drop in sales supplemented by a large increase in online sales. Might impact on the boo SP, not massively but a blue finish at some stage this week would be a plus! Steve is right in one thing it has been 3 red finish days, today marking the 4th if it ends red which is likely. Regardless of how small the drop %, they add up so over the course of several weeks thst could equate to a 10-20% price drop. Bring on the RNS this week, we need something to keep the momentum. This can’t wander through the abyss for the next 4 weeks,
With the market how it is - that won’t safeguard the price. 2.50 - 2.70 seems the new trading window. I’m £90k in at an average of £2.48 so am heavily invested. I have £25k locked and loaded if we enter an abyss and drop between £2.00 and 2.40, I am hopeful that £2.50 is the baseline and we can build on that. This week will be an important one I feel for a plethora of reasons not least to start the turn on the sp

Inspiration right there mate ... what a fighter. I salute you ! I think undoubtedly there will be a second spike. But there won’t be another national lockdown, life V economy. Interestingly there is also large swathes if Evidence around, hidden deaths - delayed visits, delayed scans, delayed operations the list goes on. We need to learn to live with this and factor it into daily life until there is a vaccine. This share needs an RNs this week, it needs some impetuse pumped Into it. There is a danger that this will drift otherwise through August and with continued bad news on the global front it could impact it.

That’s a really interesting article for the following reasons -

1. We will have an update this week (that could be well received, Luke warm reception or not deemed enough) all three reactions will undoubtedly impact the SP. it won’t be the finished review as it talks of ‘conforming the terms of reference I.e what it’s actually going to cover, however I would expect it to include the proposed timeframes)

2. We are starting to see the approach of the company, luckily they are not going down the road of ignorance I.e we didn’t know and it won’t happen again. Clearly they have identified shortcomings Around their compliance with sub contractors. An interim measure that they have announced is the implementation of an independent inspection program
However the longer term model is to bring it all in-house under their direct action. It is this piece of news that will provide the reassurance to larger funds. However read it fully and you will see this factory is for one of their brands not all, so it will be a look and see model if it works they will invest further to bring all production and distribution in house. This will safeguard against any further reputational risk as long as they keep a clean nose which they will.

I love your optimism mate and far be it from me to pi@@ on your parade but I think it’s unlikely and these estimations tend to fuel some of the negativity on this feed.

If the share price operates a weekly 5-10% rise between now and September we would enter results around 3.00/3.50 of course there may be some daily spikes of 10% if an institution buys a large tranche for example.

However it’s important to be realistic and temper expectation. This share won’t rise everyday with the exception of maybe the 10 days prior to results.

So the important figure is the weekly gain/loss. As long as the weekly gain is positive even 2/3% then we are all winning. Huge swings are not good as they create volatility. Slow and steady in the build up to results is what we need with this share, it needs to solidify a base price which appears currently around 2.50, this could change who knows but for the last week or so seems stable.

Positive articles like the one today will feed Into the sentiment piece which is where we need to be currently.

Good luck and DYOR
Ps if it hits 3.50tomz I will happily buy you a beer or case of it!!

Thanks Chris,
Good article indeed, the nugget within the article relates to sales and guidance. So there you have if from the horses mouth that sales will be on track or above.
What does this mean? It means that we know (or strongly suspect) that the financial aspect is on par or better than what was was predicted at the last set of results and of course yearly sales projections and growth

Therefore from a purely financial perspective this is important as it ties in with the Pe value (which giving a quick history lesson has always plagued the sp in her formative years).

So we see a roughly £1.50 current reduction or 35-40% of the £4.20 highs . The main challenge now is the sentiment, we need the institutions to buy back in and return faith to the sp. The books are looking good and in this climate that is the hardest thing! Now we need Boo Managment and investment team to be working 24/7 behind the scenes shmoozing the big funds detailing how and what they have done.

Shorts? I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over shorts. This share has been shorted since the beginning of time, a few years a Canadian pension fund had a big attack on it but like with all shorts they eventually closed up. What’s different this time? I think the Bod have changed tact, they are more interactive and aware of the SP. in previous years they stood back in silence - no RNs, no director buys, they let the results do the talking. However it appears that they now see that approach needed to change.

Xmas wish list -
1. Positive RNs on review by the retired Qc
2. 2 or 3 big funds buy back in
3. Stellar results (which we’ve peeled back the wrapping and we can see already)
4. No further concerted short attacks

Tech has become the gold and silver of large funds over the last six months. However the surge in valuation has fast out stripped the actual performance as demonstrated earlier this week with Microsoft’s results, good but not great, not great enough to warrant a 30% rise in sp value.

Long term tech will always win, i would bet my mortgage that if you invested in the top 5 amazon, Apple, google, Facebook and Microsoft you would see a significant return over the next 5 years. However again you need to remember the US dollar / pound rate, so it’s a double edged sword.

Trump will do anything in his power to top up the markets before his re-election in November. He will continue to push through whatever stimulus he can get past the senate at any cost. Indeed it is more than likely a case of delay delay delay in terms of a crash. Trump is many things as we know, he does however set his stall out against the economy and If that goes then he is truly fu@@ed. So he will hold onto economic recovery and gain at all cost.

China is looking more and more iscolated by the day so again will not be looking to ramp up the rhetoric too much. A global slowdown will ultimately effect their output dramatically as they rely heavily on export.

The world stage is always fluid - Brexit, Iran, Us China relations, Covid it goes on and on but the markets continue to function. With that comes winners and losers.

How does this relate to boohoo ? Well if you were asking your question and the share price was still at £4.00 then I would fully concur with your anxiety, i would think that there could be a long way to drop.

The reality is 50% of the sp has been wiped out on the basis of a concerted media campaign over a two week period. It can and will recover compounded by some outstanding results i am sure.

The challenge is unique to everyone and their level of exposure and at what point you tap out, reduce your holding, bank your profit or reinvest further.

From a personal perspective the short term view is post results September the long term view is 2-3 years time.

So, here I am back In again with the temptress that one loves to hate but hates to love!

I was originally in December 2017 at £50k @2.50 per share with stellar results expected in January. Indeed January came and went and whilst the results were great the market wasn’t suitably impressed and they tumbled, i cut out at a small loss of £4K but made £7k on IOG oil and gas at the time. The share price tumbled over the next few months at one point to £1.32. However patience prevailed for those that held and within 18months this was back flying. If I had held that £50k would of been £75k+ a few months ago.

So I learnt the hard way, panic and fear short term makes others rich. I am now heavily invested over a number of tranches now averaging £2.46, in all honesty far more than I should be. However I fundamentally believe in the company. Results alone won’t return this to £4. Sentiment will need to change and the institutions will need to buy back in. The city will decide the price not us mere mortals of PI’s.

A clean bill of health or at worst (must do better with a clear identifiable action plan for improvement) will go some way to repairing the sentiment.

The media haven’t given up on Boo yet, as per today still articles floating about and they will continue to do so. Boo is still the child sent to sit on the naughty step, but they will emerge again and be the milk monitor in a few weeks.

August will be a testing month as the markets are slow, and regardless of what people say world events impact on all shares, and the world is a pretty torrid place at the Moment. However in my humble opinion there should be a good run up to results with a change in sentiment to match.

Long term when people say £4/5/6 they could well be right. But also remember this share is sat at £2.55 exactly where it was 3 years ago. So it’s never straightforward, If it was everyone would be doing it. Fundamentally Boo is a good shout, logic didn’t warrant a 50% price reduction but then again the markets aren’t always logical I learnt that years ago.

My thoughts, don’t day trade this unless that’s your thing. You will lose it’s too volatile and you will win for 3 days and then get smashed on the 4th..

Don’t monitor it by the hour you will feel sick, check in at the end of the day or week.

Hold for the weekends as sooner or later you will miss the Monday bounce

If you can - forget about this share until end of August and cross your fingers for a few decent Rns along the way

Worse case - I’ve got £25k locked and loaded to buy on a dip below £2.35 if that happens. I don’t think it will but then I’m also realistic who knows. There is too much utter *******s on this forum about 2.70 3.00 by close of play it’s crazy and unhinges I experienced traders. Reality is no amount of Pi’s sells or buys make any difference to the share price.

Good luck all DYOR

I’ve kept Half in and sold half at 2.20 ! My situation was somewhat unique in that I was epically down having bought in at 2.15 sold out at 1.80 and then bought back in at 1.90. I am confident of a great set of figures tomorrow and fingers crossed the market does what we need it to do ! I wish I’d had the money to buy back in on the way down but I didn’t !

Thorpy what’s the demographic for NG ? And how’s it’s coming along I don’t know or hear much about it ? My other half and super trendy niece know all about it ! But purely from someone who was in the industry what’s your thoughts on it ? Could it replicate PLT or is it targeting a different market ?

We went into the Jan 2018 results at almost exactly this figure from memory 2.12-2.15... six months later look at the difference in growth and direction not to mention PLT, margin stabilisation 9-10% and touch wood no bod sells. We should surely be on the up! Of course if there is a Jambon 10% day tomorrow then the sp may not move that much on tue on excellent results, but unless you are trading for the short term that shouldn’t make any difference as any rise is a rise !!! GLA

Plus they had two very strong celebrity collaborations during this quarter, one for boo man and one for Boo

PLT is a runaway train... it could Potentially deliver the same output as Boo and overtake them. There is an obvious challenge about a niche (PLT) desired / wanted becoming main stream. Do you and Thorpy remember the designer Evisu jeans back in the noughties? They went global had a few years and then they passed. Different beast PLT obviously and far wider than just jeans but if it transistions to mainstream then ironically there is less life span in it

Thorpy what’s your view on the Sp over the next few trading days I.e Monday and then into results ? If the sp remains the same into results then it would Appear that the recent hike in Sp has factored into good results for Q1 already and good results may rise the sp a few pence to hit 2.20 or do you think there is room for a jambon 10% day to take us to 2:30-2:40

I tend to agree with Jambon on this, if we enter at 2.15-2.20, and get a 10% rise on results with a few days of minor uplift 1-2% a day it will take us nicely into £2.50 territory.

It is down less than 0.5% ... stop and think - it is much better to be going into the results lower, the main problem with the jan results when the price went down is that the market over bought into the results, so when they came out there was nowhere to go but down. Why oh why do a load of new posters appear spouting nonsense a day or two Before the results !?!? Hmmmm let me think about that HOLD YOUR SHARES do not sell like they want you to !!!

They look very healthy ? Circa £2million.. that’s gotta push the opening price up a bit ?

Morning all, good to see the convo back to where it needs to be these days.. hammerhead/man I think you are getting confused with the Jan 18 update, this is when the price plummeted. There were a number of reasons behind this, not least because of a mix of director sales and pre hype. We are hopefully (I am confident) in a different era these days, PLT is flying and nasty gal is bringing up the rear nicely. What was once the jewel in the crown is now coming out as the stand alone run away success. The price even at 2.50 is cheap given the current numbers and predicted numbers. The key to the Sp was the BOD confirming margins at 9-10%

If it is a buy, it will open up higher on Tuesday..

Robot - profits have more than doubled in a year... not reflected in share price .. end of sermon

Thorpy - I am confused, albeit not for the first time today. Has the report been issued ? There is an RNS link which is nothing more than the announcement of the release of it