Member Info for Indy0105

All depends what 'normal' prices are. I should imagine around 60 bucks for oil and 40-50p/thrm for gas. Really what they should do is only apply the windfall tax on anything above these amounts. That would be a massive win for HBR and UK O&G. Interesting to see how this develops.

Looks like Hunt is going to put a lower limit on the price of oil and gas for the windfall tax to be applicable. Obviously that 1 mil buy knew this in advance. This should be up tomorrow.

Sad to say but this share has been decimated by a number of unfortunate circumstances with regards to wind fall tax. Obvious this information had been leaked to short sellers who have taken advantage. I think this will be dragged down to 2.20 especially if oil continues it decline To 70 bucks.

Usually at these prices I would have gone in big but the macro headwinds my money is earning risk free income in fixed income bonds with out the stress. If this continues its decline I may start averaging in with 20-50k buys.

Only thing that concerns me is if they go out an buy asserts how will that impact the balance sheet. Will they needs to raise debt and if so at what rate. Are they likely to do an equity raise.

I used to be a SH in TGH but sold out. I have just had first hand experience of THG Ingenuity. Oral B use THG ingenuity.

Ordered an Oral B toothbrush and my money was taken but no delivery. Says my order is with the courier but actually they ran out of stock. No refund or email notification. Waited 2 weeks. Managed to get through to someone who said it was lost. And they order me another one. A week later nothing. Product is sold out! So I requested a refund. No refund as product is at dispatch. But it’s actually not. It’s still not in stock. Shocking delay tact’s to give people’s money back.

A year later and same issues not addressed by THG management. So many complaints on trust pilot. Customer service is awful. Unfortunately this is why Ingenuity cannot attacked big brands.

226 is my new buy in price. Lots of confluence around this region. Should be hit in Q1 at some point.

So looks like all those numpty pumpers are now no where to be seen. What a surprise!

As I said recession theme as appear to inflation theme has taken over the market. It’s a no win situation for oil bill. If inflation stays higher the fed continues to raise, dollar rises and oil gets hit.

If inflation starts coming down then recession is coming and that’s going to hit the dollar which will give a temporary rise is oil, until demand gets.

Still money to be made but in and out on any oversold rallies.

Looking at the SQZ deal to acquire Tail Wind Energy shows HBR is either under valued of SQZ shareholders just got fleeced!

Has been holding up well recently. Maybe selling is done.

To think this company was worth 7 billion including debt and is now worth 3.5. You cant fight momentum unfortunately and some will be looking at HBR thinking the over seas assets alone must be worth half the MC, let alone all its NS producing assets. UK Gov will see sense and put a floor on he WFT. 60-65 for oil and 40-50p/therm for gas. That should put a floor in the SP.

Note, all KIST, SQZ and GKP have low or no debt. So a lot of cash flow should go towards share holder distribution. HBR next year should stop buy backs and hand over cash to shareholders. At current valuation a 500mil dividend is around 16%. GKP is around 25-40% and KIST and SQZ should next year also be 15% plus.

I'm currently only in HBR and GKP. I'll look to build a bigger position in HBR once the dust has settled and the shorts start to reduce and possibly build positions in KIST and SQZ.

Most of by positions a put options in US Tech (QQQ, Apple and Tesla) I've reduced positions in the later recently and bought more QQQ puts as they were cheap. More money to be made on the down side then up until Q4 2023, maybe even Q1 2024

Markets are forward pricing and yield curve inversion is the highest its been. Equities will now start to be repriced accordingly. 75 bucks before we see some kind of recovery in Brent.

HBR is being played but until I see shorts starting to close I wont be piling in. My small position is under water but my profits on my oil puts more than cover this.

Market logic is screaming recession. That's why oil is down.

Smartie, you’re still spouting rubbish I see. You’re well down on your investment and this will hit new lows this week. We may even see 2’s as I said weeks ago. My oil puts are all now in profit as are half my QQQ puts. Market it heading down!

Buy backs are really working aren’t they. 700k shares bought and still down for the day. 90% of buy backs are under water. What a waste of cash. Shorter’s know something is up here. BOA are loaning out the shares and they continue to increase so it’s obvious this has some way to fall before the shorts are happy to buy back.

Energy and consumables are probably the safest trades as long as we have a cold winter and OPEC play ball. But don't expect 4's anytime soon for HBR.

Look out below! Hot job numbers in the US is bad for inflation and the FED. VIX hit 19's yesterday and is pumping with the dollar. All my puts from yesterday are now in the money. Further rate hikes, longer high rates and recession fears will start to consume the market over the next 3-6 months.

Smartie Pants, I don’t short the ftse. It’s a commodity based index and commodities tend to well in these economic conditions. It’s also one of the highest paying dividend indicies and there it’s where the money goes in risk of conditions. Read a book on investing before you shout your annoying little mouth off.

Today was an orchestrated rally. The nasdaq and S&P spiked just as Powell started speaking.

I’ll be surprised if the momentum continues through to Christmas. VIX is nearly at 20 which makes puts very cheap. I’ll be loading up over the coming days/weeks. FOMO will kick in next few days and everyone will think Santa Rally. This is where the rug will be pulled.

Smartie, I will be adding with conviction to my shorts tomorrow. When Powell says one thing and the markets do another, you know its a suckers rally. I don't mind though, the bigger the rally the bigger the fall and the more profit I make.

Like I said before, I am partly hedged so any upside profits will be used to boost my short. Watch and learn novice.