Member Info for Indy0105

Not bashing Looney. The city are not big fans because his green strategy is all over the place. Paying over the odds for licences and the most concerning of all is his charge station strategy. When the world converts to electric why would anyone use a charge station when they can charge at home for less cost. Long trips maybe but by then battery and charge tech will have greatly improved to match most modern petrel cars. Can’t see any other company investing in thousands of charge stations.

CEO is out of his depth in my opinion and for what he’s getting paid! Expect a bad response on this at the next AGM. He needs a big pay out for shareholders to keep them off his back in May and he needs to give clarity on how much money his green plan is going to cost and what the payback will be. I’m happy to come back here after this is made more clear.

Are they buying 1 billion shares. We are nearly 1/3 through the year and they have actually diluted share holders if you include the share scheme which by the way takes the Micheal!

Was hoping for some reasonable points of view but typically like most boards the view is generally one sided. Moved my funds into shell this morning. Past performance by no means decides future, but questions over SP stagnation surly need to be addressed . No one will lose money here that’s for sure, just maybe not the returns I’m looking for. GLA

What’s the point buying share back when you just diluted by 120mil shares. Why not pay cash?. I’ve just checked 20 oil and gas companies and Guess what BP is at the bottom in terms of performance. Seams like it’s more to do with the ceo and it’s strategy

I mean oil & gas companies, why would I be comparing a different sector?

Looking to get in here with my proceeds from selling Enquest but wandering why all other companies are at 3-5 year highs and this is still at £4?

Not been on this bored much but as expected very good results. Easily 60p by year end based on the level of deleveraging in the first few months. Easy money!

We’ll done to those who stayed patient.

Question is how do you replace 50% of your reserves? The R stake was always values below its true value. So I suspect a big panic drop in the morning but price will finish around £3.35. More pressure on Putin as money talks in Russia. The longer this goes on the more is grip on power reduces. There will be a point that people with power will say enough is enough. He’s completely underestimated Europe’s response.

BP provide a lot of technology and IP to R. Take that away with bans on oil tech and suddenly it becomes a lot more difficult to convert those reserves into producing barrels. If the Yanks and the Dutch also to the same then suddenly there is a lot of projects that are in development that lose funding. Hit the companies that pay the bills and Putin’s grip on power won’t last long.

They are not selling. They are giving up the stake. So big Impairment in Q1 results of 14billion!

Is that why BP shares are down in the US whilst all others are up 5%! Of course there shares will
Be hit! Russia invades, sanction on energy will hit BP. In addition investors will run for the door. Who will want to be invested in a company associated with Russia. They should have sold it a while ago!

How much does Rosneft contribute to BP production and income. War could be bad for BP even if oil goes stratospheric

Oil just gone bananas!

Mrc, I’m not claiming to know everything about Magnus. I’m just trying to understand the reason behind the huge drop in production. It’s not any where near where it was even with all the fixes to the topsides and gear box. Gas injection looks like part of the issue, that’s a reasonable assumption based on the information I have been given by someone who works the industry. Hardly lies.

HBR have started to use gas injection on catcher. They are gas hedged at half the price and at a higher % than oil so its cost affective for them to use some of this to get more unhedged oil at $90. Its clear the cost of gas makes is less economical to gas inject for EnQuest hence going back to water flooding. This also results in lower production from Magnus!. I spoke to a friend who works as a drill engineer for Tullow and gas injection does improve production for some reservoirs. I trust BP's technical team more than EnQuest's. It not a coincidence that production has dropped off massively. The term "most efficient" can be interpreted differently in terms of production and price.

Anyway, Oil heading to $100 so all good for EnQuest. Although I have to say, I have all but given up on the UK market. EnQuest is my only UK Stock. The rest are US based as they actually move with oil price! Volume is shocking even for the FTSE 100 compared to European and US markets. London needs a shake up or will continue to get left behind!

Rom, I have B/E @ $55 using net production figures, give and take a few $. As the RCF gets paid off and the bonds are re-financed at 5-6% we should see a better B/E. I'd expect spend on inorganic growth at around 600mil in the next 36 months with debt maintained at around 600-800mil with production @ 50k.

You lot are getting to hung up about debt. EnQuest will always have debt. but as long as the debt comes down to 1 x EBITDA it doesn't matter. Its more about maintaining production and 2P reserves.

Most good oil companies run debt at 1*EBITDA. 2023 they have enough cash to expand production inorganically/organically and maintain production between 40k-50k. If they hedge 50-60% each year, 2024 should still still good cash flow for the next 3 years with a sustainable balance sheet.

the cashflow is * 0782 to account for the BP profit share and the 1/3 Malaysia distribution

The $32-$36 include finance an lease costs, otherwise its around $24.

Production (Boepd) = 50000
Revenue and other operating income ($m) = 1496.5
Realized oil price ($/bbl) = 82
Average unit operating costs ($/Boe) = 24
Average unit operating costs = 430
EBITDA ($m) = 1066.5
Cash expenditures ($m) = 165
Capital ($m) = 40
Abandonment ($m) = 75
Finance & Lease ($m) = 230
Free cash flow ($m)3 (*0.782) = 435.2

My thoughts match L7 excellent summary. Short term this may fall back a bit over the next few months as oil is overbought and I suspect it may hit $95 before drops g back to the mid 80s before the run up to 100. Enquest year end results and Q1 update will be the moment this share finally lifts off. It will show excellent production figures with huge cash build as I suspect most of the work is scheduled for the summer. This will be the confidence the market needs to send this into the 30s. Enquest has finally looking investable after many years of being on the edge of going broke.

AB has done a great job keeping LT shareholders in the game and I’m sure your be all celebrating at the 60p party sooner than you believe. The only risk I see is those dumb shakers! Most are listening to Share holders but the big boys are on big drilling campaigns especially in the Permian. And there are a lot of smaller privet companies that are also drilling like crazy.