Member Info for Indy0105

Fair point. I lost 350k in PMO, Tullow and Enq during covid crash after 6 years of fairly good gains. I know the feeling of being stuck in a share. I Only just managed to make it back and that was with taking what I had left and investing it elsewhere. So I wish you good luck with whatever you decide to do next.

I am energy heavy at the moment and it has crossed my mind that I could get burnt again. But I am 50% in BP so that should shield complete losses.

Maybe a bit early on that trigger. I understand your frustrations but investing is about patience. Gap finally got closed today so I suspect an afternoon rally. 3.7 billion dollars market cap is cheap. There may be some bumps in the road but this will come good. I suspect they will be looking at shell gas assets that are up
For sale in the North Sea. They have plenty of liquidity so I suspect a deal very soon.

Markets needed an excuse to turn. Central
Bank intervention did the trick. Should see a nice bounce across most markets the next few weeks. DXY needs to cool off. Q3 results should finally give this kick it needs to 5.50/6.

So close to closing that gap this morning. I have it at 4.321

Once this is done we should be off. Will be slowly adding to my position over the next few weeks.

Pelle, they cannot use the RBL to pay back the the bonds. The RBL will only get extended if the can refinance the bonds. That’s the terms.

I think if they can clear 50% of the high yield bond and remaining 7% retail bond then they should be able to refinance the remaining amount but at a really high rate (12%+). To do this they need oil at 90 for Q4 and 90 for 2023 with only a 5% drop in production. The ongoing risks in the H1 report defines a base case and what they have stressed test their business to. It’s going to be very tight, especially with a 2023 global recession pretty much guaranteed.

Enquest is certainly worth more. What’s holding it back is the bond refinancing. They struggled with refinancing the retail bond so what’s the strategy for the high yield bond? They have 12 months to find a solution at a time where the bond market is breaking.

They should be close to clearing the RCF soon. I guest then they will look to pay off as much of the bonds as they can. However, the lower oil prices go the tougher this becomes. This is why it moves up and down so much with oil.

Q4 should see oil back to 90-100, so this should help. I’d like to see a Q3 update with the RCF fully repaid whilst maintaining production.

Me too, I sold out of my QQQ short on Friday and moved my entire portfolio into BP, HBR, ENQ, KIST. 85% in BP and HBR.

The numbers do not lie. Both throwing off cash, both buying back shares and offering dividends. Both massively undervalued compared to European and US peers. At some point the money will flow back in. I think both needed a price drop, just to reset RSI, STOICH, MACD and MOM. That’s pretty much need done so barring a complete market capitulation, we should get some good upside in the near term.

The exchange rate, brings down the cost per barrel and therefore improves cash flow and profit. The SP of all Uk companies that sell in $ should be going up. BP in $ value is now nearly half that of other US majors.

The problem is now that all good UK companies are under threat of take overs from US companies due to the fall in sterling.

Me too, I’m in pretty big though. I suspect the we might get 4.30 to close the gap before the big move up.

Well the pound is getting smashed and so is everyone else including energy. This is strange as oil and gas is priced in dollars so HBR makes more pounds which increase its MC. I’m looking to get in just before close has this is cheap!

Most likely markets will take a massive dump in the next few weeks taking everything with it. I sold out all my shares in this last Thursday and Friday. Not because I think it’s the top buy because it was well overbought and it gapped up on the day of the results. I suspect this will fall back close the gap at around 4.35, reset the RSI, MACD and Stoich and bounce hard to 5:50/6.00.

I’m mostly in cash but have a decent position in QQQx3 leveraged short to capitalise in the next 4-8 weeks. Every time the FED has stated to pull money from the system the markets have dumped 10%+.

Long term this is a no brainier but always take profits. A lesson I have learnt the hard way the last few years!

Not a coincidence that’s Euroclear short interest started increasing when the SP was above £5. Not the first time a company has not declared large short positions on this company.

That’s exactly what happening. They are reducing SP to ensure the merger goes ahead at a cheap price. They all get massive pay offs whilst shareholders gets screwed…..again

This is being manipulated for a low ball take over.

Why is down so much today?

Anyone know why there is 10% stock on loan on Euroclear? May be why the SP has tanked recently, but this seams like a risky play based on the amount of cash this company is making, even with the extra tax hit.

Buy triggered! Nice 5% gain already. Who sold out?

Cash flow and profits are 2 different things! Profit takes into account depreciation and cost of reserve replacement. Cash flow does not include this and can be be multiples of profit is what goes towards paying debt!

Extra incentive to produce more oil. Headline figures of 25% and 5 billion in extra tax are for the papers. In reality the tax will be around 5% after it is offset and most companies will invest more to bring this down to 0%. Why would they not?

If this drops below 31 I’m back in big!

To appropriately tax the extraordinary profits, companies will not be able to offset previous losses or decommissioning expenditure against profits subject to the levy.

On the Levy - previous losses can be offset against the 40%. That’s how I read it. Again no big deal. Panic selling. I’ll be back in soon!