Member Info for Indy0105

the cashflow is * 0782 to account for the BP profit share and the 1/3 Malaysia distribution

The $32-$36 include finance an lease costs, otherwise its around $24.

Production (Boepd) = 50000
Revenue and other operating income ($m) = 1496.5
Realized oil price ($/bbl) = 82
Average unit operating costs ($/Boe) = 24
Average unit operating costs = 430
EBITDA ($m) = 1066.5
Cash expenditures ($m) = 165
Capital ($m) = 40
Abandonment ($m) = 75
Finance & Lease ($m) = 230
Free cash flow ($m)3 (*0.782) = 435.2

My thoughts match L7 excellent summary. Short term this may fall back a bit over the next few months as oil is overbought and I suspect it may hit $95 before drops g back to the mid 80s before the run up to 100. Enquest year end results and Q1 update will be the moment this share finally lifts off. It will show excellent production figures with huge cash build as I suspect most of the work is scheduled for the summer. This will be the confidence the market needs to send this into the 30s. Enquest has finally looking investable after many years of being on the edge of going broke.

AB has done a great job keeping LT shareholders in the game and I’m sure your be all celebrating at the 60p party sooner than you believe. The only risk I see is those dumb shakers! Most are listening to Share holders but the big boys are on big drilling campaigns especially in the Permian. And there are a lot of smaller privet companies that are also drilling like crazy.

Stay in there KO! Oil nearly at $91! Watch this bounce tomorrow. Bottom line is that they made nearly $400mil free cash at $68/bbl at 44k/d production. More than half was to buy 10k/d bbl of oil (unhedged) and the rest to pay off the vendor loan and top line debt. Currently producing at 50k/d which is 5k higher than what they were producing last year in Q1 at an oil price that is $22 higher than their 2021 average.

SP this time last year was 13p and oil was $57 and hit 25p 4 week later when oil hot $70. I suspect once they look at the numbers in more detail we should get an upgrade because debt will be around 1xEBITDA by year end and at the current SP EnQuest will be trading at 0.4*EBITDA and 0.8-1.0x free cash flow at oil probably around $110! Baring any big f**k-ups, which you can never rule out with EnQuest, valuation should be around 800mill, circa 40p in 12 months!.

ASOS also has a low market float of 100mil shares. Its main shareholder is a multi-billionaire and holds 25%+ of the company so no need to sell. Top 10 shareholders own nearly 3/4 of the company. Once it hits FTSE 250 you could see the even less shares available to purchase. When this share moves, it moves fast in both directions. Interest rise should calm inflation which should be positive for retailers. I guess the fact they nearly raised it 0.5% shows that they believe inflation is getting out of control and requires some big moves. ASOS market is the teens to twenty's . This demographic is less worried about inflation and more about their looks and insta pictures. I think the company similar to TGH (Make Up and Wellness) should fair better in high inflation periods.

How long doe the summer maintenance period for Magnus and Kraken last for?

All in all the OU could have been better but also could have been worse. Positives are that debt is down at lower production and when taking into account the BP vendor loan and the purchase of Golden Eagle. Overall actual free cash flow after finance and lease costs are around $275mil.

2022 forecast's I hope are on the conservative side, but even at the low end production figure I still get $300mil debt reduction. Mid point, $350mil and upper $430mil and that's at $80/b. Kraken and Magnus production figures for 2022 are the big disappointments, but this is still undervalued in my opinion, mainly due to debt. But this is the year that EnQuest can finally get this to a more manageable value of 1 x EBITAD. If can stabilize production then I think the SP will end on a positive not. Not sure about 40's but high 20's low 30's is not out the question.

When is the TU?

Some good point raised there. So thanks everyone. I forgot about the lease! The most important point to note here is the oil price. If it stays at these levels the SP will re-rate back to 30s. If they can get on top of production issues then 40s is achievable.

Free cash flow for 2021 is around 300mil at $67/bbl. Add another 5-10k production and $10-15/bbl and free cash flow is at least another 200mil.

Whatever the history with legacy fields and under performance , this is under valued. Debt will be less than 1xEBITAD end of 2022! Target price of 35-40p for 2022.

Having said that, they seam pretty confident they can recover production, so they may be able to hit 15k+ during the year. I’m happy to be proven wrong next week as this should help the SP.

Magnus will not be producing anything close to 15k unless new wells are bought online early, which I doubt will be the case. Magnus field life extension by BP was based on gas injection. The gas coming from one of BP other fields. This was fine when gas prices were low, however Enquest have now decided to go back to water flooding because gas injection is not cost effective. They sold the pre purchased gas at a profit last year instead of injecting back into the field. This is the big question mark over Magnus. How much oil can they produce with water injection. The answer is definitely is not as much hence the the big drop in production.

Evidence is the SP performance pal. Someone is selling. This has still a long way to fall before it stabilises. One for the watchlist but staying well away!

Not been here for a while but built a reasonable position the last few weeks which I will be looking to increase if we get a decent update. Following on from L3'Traders post, 700mil free cash flow is only possible at $100/b.
I have production Figures @ 51k Gross , 44.5K net.

7mbls @ $76 = 532 mil
9.27mbls @ $80 = 742 mil
Total = 1274 bil

Opex @ $25 = 407 mil
Capex = $150 mil
Interest = $100 mil
Decom = $150 mil
Total = $800 mil

Free Cash Flow = $1274 bil - 800 bil = $474 mil

Should leave net debt around $750-800mil

Happy for someone to correct my back of a fag packet numbers as I've probably missed something!

Looking at Q1 to Q4 figures, GTV is pretty much consistent. In fact I think Q1 was slightly higher than Q4. ROO is established in the UK along side JET, however it’s international performance is poor. It’s all about consolidation and ROO just can’t compete against the bigger fish. Just because Amazon is a share holder doesn’t mean they will continue to back the company. JET GTV is 28bill and it’s coming after the London market. It be interesting to see if ROO can hold its position. The whole industry is loss making which shows the business model needs to change. Hence the stampede of investors and the big drop in SP of all the players in this field.

And gross profit doesn’t taking into account administrative expenses, what it cost to run the businesses! ROO although better than most still only makes 7.5% of GTV which is not enough to cover marketing and growth. Hence the burn rate!

The shorts have increased by a fair amount but the price hasn't really moved that much. A snippet of good news this will be back above £30. There are supply chain and inflation head winds, but there is also a lot of saved cash waiting to be spent. Air travel picking up should result in a bumper summer of spending on holidays clothing and with no lock downs over Christmas winter and party wear should result in good numbers. Prices at 0.5*2022 sales. This is a company that make profit, unlike other online retailers.

Still not dipping my toe in here. Was lucky to get out of JET with a small profit. Not sure how to value any of these types of stocks anymore. ROO seams to be doing things well. But market is punishing loss maki g companies any the moment. The drop here has been brutal. Not much chance of it getting back to its highs unless it’s bought out.

Really low volume today but bulls are on top. But as I said they always drop it last 10min. I would hold fire until then or wait to see what happens tomorrow. No volume so if they wanted to bring it down they would unless an order is being filled and that’s why they are not selling. It be a waste of shares to short otherwise.

The positive is that although the shorts have been increasing the SP is still neutral which shows there are buyers there picking up anything below 2300. If this continues then they will lose the fight and once they run out of shares to short they will have no choice but to buy back and if this starts to rise then we’ll see 4000s in no time. They always drop it 10min before market close.

TIKR is a good slice for shareholder information. 70% of shares are owned by institutions.

Yes, they are attacking the SP but are looking over stretched now. 8% and rising means they may struggle to buy back, especially when this hits the ftse 250. Not a big float left so I suspect they will at some point start to buy back.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2022/01/asos-target-of-1bn-stock-market-trading-attack/