Member Info for Indy0105

It’s still down for the week and has been for pretty much the last 12. I’ll get the fireworks out when we actually have a week that finishes higher and maybe the champagne when it finishes higher for the month!

THG unfortunately got hit on multiple fronts but also aided in their own share price destruction. SP was steady until H1 report that showed big cash outflow, followed by the short report and a disastrous CMD day. If things couldn’t get worse MM went on the rampage and then Q3 reports showed a slowdown in growth on Q2. The recurring revenue explanation for Ingenuity was still unclear. The UK press jumped on the bandwagon and confidence is at an all time low. What continuing is headlines that high street retail is fighting back and profit warnings from ASOS and BOOHOO have added to the negative mix. Some shady accounting from THG has also hit the street recently with an eye on adjusted cash items that really should really be part of capex and admin expenses. On the main market you can’t get away with stuff like this.

But all is not lost. Deep dive and although the high street is fighting back, beauty is still very much online now. More choice and still cheaper. My protein will maintain its online growth as again a specialised product that is predominantly bought online. On demand seams to be doing very well and a lot of money is being pumped into ingenuity to drive growth.

90 million shares on loan is a lot and the shares out there available are low so when this goes it could jump big. Firstly an early update highlighting significant Ingenuity client wins and sales that top 750mil will initiate the fire. Then in jan a further update with even better numbers and some colour on the ingenuity wins. Finally a chairman that the city loves should see this back up to £3. Also cash figure end of the year that’s greater than the 700mil held end of Q4 will finally kill the negativity surrounding this company. They should also make a statement regarding splitting of the company. I for one think beauty is worth around 2x earnings in the US. That pretty much the current market cap based on 2022 sales!

I’m MM and his team know this. Remember the city especially the US love recurring revenue. No value to the tech at the moment. But it’s definitely worth something. At 60mill recurring revenue it’s worth 1.2 billion.

Short interest was up 1.66% last month. Up to 7.15% which is a lot considering a lot of shares are held. I suspect any form of good news will take this back in to the £2+. If Q4 results are very positive they should release an early update as I doubt the shorts are done yet. Although I noticed PSquared reduced slightly yesterday. Need to get the Reddit guys here to help fight back before I’m broke!

Wrong thread sorry

Short interest was up 1.66% last month. Up to 7.15% which is a lot considering a lot of shares are held. I suspect any form of good news will take this back in to the £2+. If Q4 results are very positive they should release an early update as I doubt the shorts are not done yet. Although I noticed PSquared reduced slightly yesterday. Need to the Reddit guys to help fight back before I’m broke!

https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/90535/account-to-account-payments-platform-vyne-now-live-with-10-brands

“So you want to gain an extra 10p/ 20p a share from some extra revenue when if we prove ingenuity we all get an extra c£5 per share”

Look at other beauty companies with both offline and online sales. There multiples are 3-4xsales. THG are at 0.85x sales. What’s the SP at even 2 x sales. And if they weren’t already thinking about this, they wouldn’t have singed a partnership with ASDA to sell in their stores!

Dan, but they are not growing online sales are they? Q1-Q3 there was no growth quarter to quarter. MM said the business plan is to buy growth, hence splitting the various devisions to gain access to capital, otherwise it dilutes shareholders.

I agree that the value here is in Ingenuity. That’s not priced in and will had multiples to the share price. That’s why I’m invested. But if they can’t grow their own sales using ingenuity, how they going to grow their client businesses. It’s all linked.

Dan, Your missing the point! THG need to move to offline for beauty and nutrition. Revolution Beauty is now in US stores as well as online. They are priced at 4x sales. You can still be a big online player and have an offline presence. Ashley has balanced both and look at the HOF share price. People will move back to offline from online as Is already showing in the numbers. That’s why the THG SP has been nailed. Ingenuity customers are building online capabilities but still have big offline offering. It’s about growing sales. THG have already announced partnership with Asda. They could sell there own brands and independent Cult Beauty brands in stores. Beauty on the height stress has all but disappeared. This is a big market they should be looking as.

The number of shares out there not owned by big funds are massively reducing. This is why we see big drops and rises on not really that much volume. Any good news and this will fly. Shorts would be crazy to be building with low liquidity.

MM needs to do a deal with Mike A. Get LF and CB in every HOF store. The SP would re-rate on this alone as it would make THG and offline and online Player, counteracting the drop in online sales. Get MP into stores and make deals similar to the Asda partnership. It’s a no brainier, which is why I can’t believe he hasn’t already hedged this risk by increasing presence online. They a so disruptive on price that they would take a big chunk of the offline market share.

Mandip, I think you are just worried like a lot of us. However I believe, hope, pray…lol that we have bottomed. THG are being priced at less than 1x 2021 sales. This is crazy considering they own a lot of brands. Beauty brand owners are being priced at 3x earnings. Ingenuity is making over 100mil. Even if you removed the deck aspect if this is still should be valued at around 500mil just based on the growth. As it’s tech it should be valued around 2bil.

In jan update you may see less sales but you will also see a missive increase in ingenuity commerce revenue and a big increase in business development wins and this will drive the price much higher. Remember the business was valued at 8bill because of Ingenuity not on beauty and nutrition GMV. If they can prove to the market that ingenuity is growing with client base increasing this will massively re-rate!

Would be surprised if this kicks on to 2.50 very quickly. Especially if COVID becomes front page over the weekend. A good December update followed another in Jan with Ingenuity order book up then we should be back above £3.

It went on the cult beauty acquisition

Short tracker updated. Could explain the big drop yesterday

Didn’t really make any other news headlines other than the one on sky news. A bit surprising considering all the focus the company has had on it.

Even the mention of Accounting irregularities will still deter people from investing and creates a circus of volatility that we could do without at the moment.

Maybe Numis was working with the shorters. They have turned them selfs in to get a slap on the rist and a fine rather than a full investigation!

Law suits for Numis, especially if it led to clients dumping stock!

So revolution beauty (ingenuity client) is valued at 450mil with h1 sales of 75mil @ 30% annualised growth. THG will hit 2.3bill sales @ 40% annualised growth and is valued at 2.3 billion. Go figure!

500k spike in volume as soon at it hit 1.75. More of those please!