RE: Nervousness11 Oct 2022 18:13
"involve Belarus, with another attack from the north and getting supplied with weapons from them"
Lukashenko is stupid, but not that stupid. he is deeply unpopular in Belarus and the only reason he is in power is because of rigged elections. if he sends Belarusians into the meat grinder he's done for.
and even if he does, what good are they going to be apart from diverting some Ukrainian troops away from the current front lines?
Belarusians are even more useless, untrained, unmotivated, ill-equipped, incompetent and inexperienced than the Russians and that's saying something.
and exactly what weapons are they going to bring to the table apart from just more of the same (actually worse) than the Russians have already been using for the past 7/8 months?
and in the short term they might be able to field, 6, 7 or 8 thousand men and circa 15,000 in the medium term? And with nearly 200,000 Russians not being able to achieve their goals in the last 8 months, and feeling like they need to conscript another 300,000 men to get the job done, the Belarusians are almost utterly irrelevant.
I still cant see it spilling outside of Ukraine unless Putin goes nuclear. He wont attack any NATO country as he guarantees a total loss for the Kremlin and reality is the Russian troops in Ukraine will be obliterated in about 6 weeks. NATO would immediately have air superiority, actually make that air supremacy, and the Russian losses would be unequivocally untenable.
but in the absence of NATO getting fully involved, i agree it will be a long haul, the west isnt going to give up, i mean why would they just have to supply weapons to kill thousands and thousands of Putins men whilst not sacrificing a single soldier of their own. and its a great showcase for western weaponry, any country using soviet weapons are quickly going to pivot away when its all over and the west are rubbing their hands waiting for that time.
simply put, nothing can compete with the industrial military complex of the US. Russia spends about $60 billion per year on their military and its now clearer than ever a lot of that never actually makes it into the armed forces because of corruption. the US alone spends nearly $800 billion and on a lot higher grade, more technologically advanced materiel. then add in the UK, Germany, France and everyone else. its not even remotely a competition.
and of course Putin's fragile ego wont allow him to bow out either without some sort of victory. likely hood is he just dresses up defeat as some sort of symbolic victory in someway and why not when 98% of the population is too brain washed to know any different, and will believe any lie, not matter how ridiculous, dished out by the Russian media, which of course is just an extension of the Kremlin's press department.
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