Member Info for Icouldntcomment

The current state of Hfd reminds of where Kwik Fit found itself about 30 years ago with a collapse in consumer confidence. They had to put a lot of restructuring, cash and marketing to effect a turnaround.

It is not a good look for the Hfd BOD to be blaming the weather and everything else without taking a closer look at themselves.

This year's miss on profits might very well run into a multi year miss. I wouldn't be convinced the shares are at their bottom just yet. They could have a long timely fall ahead.

i posted this a couple of weeks ago re halford autocentres. given the utter **** taking with their customers, today's rns really is no big surprise.

======================================

halfords auto centre26 jan 2024 11:33

went to my local hfd auto centre yesterday.

i wanted an oil level sensor replaced. the part costs about £50, + an oil refill. all in, job takes 30-60 mins.

girl on reception didn't understand the job, part cost or how long it takes but she did know it would cost me more than £300 + a £49 diagnostic check even though my dealer has already done that, because it's hfd company policy. that's an overall cost alot more than the dealer quote.

if this is the abysmal standard hfd operates at then it's got some way to go to recovery.

i thought i'd give hfd a try after an absence since they once told me i needed all my wipers replaced,.... 6 months after they had replaced them. 😬

Given that the 3 divisions have been separated for some time, I simply think MM has to take the plunge and list all 3 separately in the USA.

Personally, although Nutrition has a big opportunity in the US, Ingenuity prospects are even better.

Growth prospects in the UK as they are, are painfully slow in comparison.

I hardly think MW increasing by 0.01% really constitutes Shorts Increasing.

0.01% is just 130,000 shares.

A more realistic comment today re shorts would be, No meaningful change in Shorts today. If one were needed.

@Citypie, you didn't say you were replying to polishcap, and, as I was the originator of the thread, I thought you were replying to me. Apologies!

Like you, I am massively under on this. Over £100k. I am so, so frustrated that the SP hasn't really moved for nearly 2 years; and after those words about valuation. And here we have the same CEO buying plastic gorilla's. Anyway, think he(MM) really is in a hard place if this doesn't start seriously moving in the right direction in the next quarter.

Re Citypie

Now hear this, now hear this. CityPie is going to share with all us investors and, should I say, non investors, his considered "View".

Over to you City Pie, please let our investments benefit from your vision and wisdom. What do you see?

Just one more quarter and we will be at the 2 year anniversary of "170p offer fundamentally under values the business". Here we are with that 1 quarter to go at under 70p.

Between now and then we'll have the annual results and any event(s) . It all has to be good. Two years is long enough for any good CEO to add shareholder value. Many have successfully accomplished the turnaround within 2 years.

What real excuse would Matt have.

Of course things will improve this year with interest rate falls, but that won't be Matt's contribution.

I really can't see him and the BOD letting this 2 year anniversary pass at 70p and telling us all, II's and PI's, that alls well.

So here's to boom this quarter, otherwise we have backed a dud.

Another UK businessman talking up advantage of moving to the US. Remember when UK was financial capitol of Europe pre Brexit.

"Speaking to The Mail on Sunday, Stelios Haji-Ioannou, who set up Easyjet in 1994, said that an American listing could boost the firm’s value and bring its valuation closer to rival Ryanair" ,

@Schlemiel

Name one thing, just one thing that works better now than it did in 2010. The UK is on its knees!

And your prognosis, Starmer is a slimey liar. FFS. I'll bet you even think the Daily Heil prints real news 😂😂😂

Just reading the news article. I guess he wants a seat on the Kelso Board. Why? Hasn't he got enough to do?

@Josh

My thoughts exactly. What is MM buying Kelso for?

They are no threat to THG and they have not said anything the THG board and MM should not have been aware of or considered. If MM is being so thin skinned then that's a really bad look. If it's part of a plan, and I can't imagine what, then he should say so.

Any day now. Doh!

Just reading about Terry Leahy who made £17m profit and THG float and hung onto what was then valued at £68m in Shares. What are they worth now, £7m, if that. I do wonder what Matt says to such investors to keep them quiet. What are the promises?

Also, they have been talking about spinning off Beauty and Nutrition since 2021 (as you know). It's been a long wait.

Annnnyyyy say now.

Yup,... Grossly under-valued business is THG.

Under-valued by another 2.4% today. WTF FF!!

So where are we? It seems like sales of Beauty and Nutrition have not only peaked for THG but are actually in a slow decline. Note current Q4 and YOY figures. Add to this, both these divisions are in saturated markets with an endless supply of new entrants. The prospects of sustainable long term organic growth for both are not looking positive. So, the only short to medium term prospect for both comes in a question of the realisation of appropriate valuations. And, I think we are all in raging agreement that they are both mightily under valued compared to selective businesses we choose to look at.

In the short to long term, the only division that could surprise us in terms of its own growth is Ingenuity. It is the one, that any day, or not, could land some seriously impressive contracts. But could it bring in enough to survive without Beauty and or Nutrition.

If any of us II's or PI's want some return from THG then it seems that only a sale of the whole or parts of the business, or, relisting in more favourable markets, is going to do this. If not by this year end (April 24) then when?

I have personally been very well invested in THG for 2 years now. Not only am I well down on capital, I have also forgone about £40k in dividends had I invested elsewhere. It is worrying and painful waiting for this 'value' to be realised.

I do wonder what many of the II's think or know and why they stay. Or is it that 'sunken loss', that they are just more under water than we are.

I am now of the thought that if something doesn't significantly change by mid year, then it might not do for several years. It would be time to leave. Which would be a shame for such a promising business.

@billybam

Best way to time right entry.

Wait for good news and the turn. Although you won't get it at tge exact bottom. You will get it lower than trying to guess the bottom.

Even after today's 100% rise the company is still valued at £39m. The Times reports that if Superdry were bought by a Brand Management company, Superdry's value could soar to £400-£600m. That would be 400p-600p. That's some view on a rerate and explains why Dunkerton is expressing interest in taking it private.

This for a share that started this week at 16p.

Anyway, if this is potential re-rated valuations for Superdry, which is currently in a dire state compared to THG, then what for THG????

Went to my local HFD Auto centre yesterday.

I wanted an Oil Level Sensor replaced. The part costs about £50, + an oil refill. All in, job takes 30-60 mins.

Girl on reception didn't understand the job, part cost or how long it takes but she did know it would cost me more than £300 + a £49 diagnostic check even though my dealer has already done that, because it's HFD company policy. That's an overall cost alot more than the dealer quote.

If this is the abysmal standard HFD operates at then it's got some way to go to recovery.

I thought I'd give HFD a try after an absence since they once told me I needed all my wipers replaced,.... 6 months after they had replaced them. 😬

I think the full YEnd results are going to cast up a serious inventory issue with its subsequent implications.

Over next few months this will go sub 50p at which point it will be a Buy.

Thg with a BETA of 2.41 and such a low PI influence is ripe for Shorters to play with, or manipulate the SP.

I don't actually think Shorters believe THG is a failing business. For them it's just too damn easy to make money from the SP movement.

Why don't more Shorters join in? Investments in others businesses and fear of being burned by a capital event.