Member Info for Icouldntcomment

The share transaction volumes are pitiful. If the Shorts are to get out of this with the volume they need then the price must rise to persuade Sellers to come on board. I wonder who will go for it first??

When we learned of the Apollo offer it was at the fiscal year end with the company's worst result. MM would have been trying to negotiate from the worst possible position. No wonder he called it off.

Why give up the GS now?

Either he's realised that support from the BOD and II's means he doesn't really need it. Or he has removed it to telegraph that because performance is improved he is now open to talks, being in a better place. But personally I don't think he is one to remove the GS in order to sit back and hope for the best. Which leads me to believe that maybe something is already in the course of being played out.

DIOR LOL

At personal risk to oneself.

The Shares in Issue is showing as 1299m. Up until very recently it was 1449m.

What happened to 150m shares?

As l pointed out yesterday, it will happen when the FCA review is concluded. So if it is worthwhile at that point, THG would Premium list during Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. We don't know exactly when just yet.

Just FYI

As MM said THG aims to go for a Premium listing once the FCA Listing Regime rule change review has been completed.

The consultation period will end next week, 28th June. The new rules will seek to be applied by Q4 2023 to Q1 2024.

Therefore, THG will have Premium Listing before March next year.

This is the end of THG'S Bearish pattern.

This is now a Bullish share at the start of it's long journey upwards. Why go through all that pain and sell now.

Fully agree with this view.

I was also thinking as to why MM and BOD wouldn't agree to an extension of talks with Apollo; what would THG have to lose just by talking and listening. Why no public dissent from any of the 65%? Why no dissent from wealthy individuals? Why did none of these wealthy owners sell out at 117? Why Shorts sellers not buying back in? Etc, etc.

And it is that there is likely something else in the pipeline. Something that Apollo was a distraction to. Something that any Apollo offer could not beat for these vested interests.

This something else had to be so far on and convincing that everyone who had to be told, bought into it. We can't know as that's going public.

I think this something will just land one day soon, out of the blue and be transformational. All we have to do is hang in there.

My wifw asked me to have a Garage Sale this weekend. She thinks we could make about £100 from all our unwanted junk.

Then we thought, what if we create and franchise our own Garage Sale business. With 18 million garages in the UK, taking 6% of all sales revenue as a franchise fee, we could just have something here.

I looked at the Net Present Value of all future cash flows for the next 20 years assuming a Discount Rate o 10% and 100% per annum exponential growth and a ROI of 70%.

This valued our Garage Sale Franchise business today at £8.4 Billion on a PE of 12.

But I'll let you have it all today for just £150 if you can send the money over immediately !

SP 56.58.

I tell you what, this 300 'value' is a bloody well kept secret.

I know it sounds a long shot holding for 300+, especially when it's 59 right now. But it will come around sooner than we think.

Just need to stop getting down about current daily movements, or lack of.

If you look at the value of all of the different divisions, if Ingenuity is worth £1Bn, then the real value of the business is up to £4.5Bn, or 330/share. This is also two times revenue, so about right.

Kelso's SOTP'S put it at £3.3Bn or 220/share.

Not unreasonable to hold out for 300+ then.

There was a good article in the FT on 16th. Don't know if discussed here, called, 'Should UK Boards take Apollo seriously?'

Gist of it is, Apollo really goes in hard for a steal of a low buying price.

"The sun god of bailing on UK bids

Apollo Global has developed a reputation in the UK for abandoning deals at the eleventh hour.

That has only been underscored after the US investment giant saw two possible take-privates collapse in the past four days."

That of course would be THG and Wood Group, whom they dropped at the 11th hour after making 5 bids.

So, when MM said, " THG described Apollo’s bid as “unacceptable” and based on “smart financial engineering”, he wasn't being unkind or thinking just about himself.

The long and short of this is that it is likely Apollo did not offer anything like we thought and they are not part of the long term solution to THG's future.

Surely they can only be referring to THG?

City Pie, I know.. I think my tool could give a better prediction.

No it F#####g isn't.

Will you kids cut this out. Where the hell did someone get 90p from anyway? Coming when, give us a date if your so good.

F######g hell. Back to the 50's, just call me Marty McFly.

Everyone saying, it's worth this, that and the next thing. And, although it's now worth 59, some on here under the delusion, along with MM, that it's worth 220 plus a Premium.

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis says this share is worth 59p. You can dream all you like that it's worth 100,200,300 or 400,..... it's worth 59p!!!!

I really don't care about MM's GS, which PE might buy it or anything else, I care about this supposedly top flight BOD leveraging this business and letting the city see some real growth. Then the SP will might rise.

Today it's going to be 40,55,70, £1, 170 and 200. Maybe even hit 250 if you close your eyes and click your heels 3 times. Could even go to 40. I can top up at 40.

Today there will also be another bidder, maybe 3 of them and Shorts will get in so that they can get out before they are squeezed out.

Quite an exciting day, what!

Oh here we go. Qube back at 0.55%.

Difficult to see it falling much further from current price given better expectations for Q2 results. But guess they might grease it down. Really is just manufacturing profits by them. Should be illegal.

Share price now worth less than 25% of SOTP'S valuation. It is just a bad dream. Rinse repeat.

Well that was all very interesting over the last few weeks. Nothing to see here, move along.