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RE: MTL in 2026

I agree that trying to put an exact figure on where the Share price (SP) of Metals Exploration (MTL) will be in two years' time is a very difficult thing to do.

Although to be fair to those having a stab at it, they’re simply responding to gold-miner’s question.

I have no intention of trying to put a figure on it myself, as I have no idea.

However, what I will say is that I cannot imagine that MTL will stay at the current price, post the proposed merger with Condor. (CNR)

The current market capitalisation for MTL is £101.96 Million @ SP 5.90p

NB. MTL is a debt free, profit making company. (£119.25 Million profit in 2023) with all the indications (from the quarterly updates and the increased price of gold) pointing to a further increase for 2024. (We will know just how profitable 2024 was, when the next set of results are released shortly)

So, a market capitalisation that is less than a company makes per annum is evidently very much at odds with the economics.

Clearly the reason for this mismatch (in the case of MTL) is the limited life of the Runruno mine.

Which is precisely why the merging of CNR’s assets with MTL’s expertise is a great deal for all of us. As unlocking those resources will undoubtedly propel the merged company to the next level.

Also, as gold-miner says, by the end of 2026 we will know more about: Abra (5 targets, 2 being worked on currently) the Philippines 'small scale miner' projects, the possible Runruno extension and La India production. Also, other possible discoveries from further focused drilling in Nicaragua, the mystery site and whatever other projects Darren might have in the pipeline?

What will the price of MTL be at the end of 2026? I don’t know, but we will be two years further down the road to Darren’s stated ambition to turn MTL from a $200 Million into a $2 Billion company. IMHO the SP will be a great deal more than it is now…

So that raises the question as to whether one should reinvest the 10p per share cash consideration into MTL shares.

I agree that Mellon has done us no favours and should have been able to secure at least 50p per share from Calibre payable in Calibre shares. We could then see a proper return on our investment as the Calibre shares continued to increase in price.

Mellon I would speculate as gone for this deal because he will be a large shareholder in MTL whereas if he took Calibre shares he would be an insignificant shareholder in Calibre.

However we are where we are with the MTL deal which can give us a decent return if the MTL shares move quickly to 10p+ which would double the value of our CNR shares. I think that is realistic because as a producer with a considerable amount of cash in the bank and continuing to flow from its existing mine to finance La India, the market should start to recognise the value of CNR’s gold in the ground. I intend to retain my MTL shares and hope to realise the real value of my long term investment in Condor.

I think they are using these small raises as they await a US government grant that could well provide £10 million plus with no dilution. The grant has taken longer than expected as I understand the US Government are being very slow to process them. Oliver is managing the situation very well with these small raises from Professional Investors who clearly see a very promising and profitable investment moving forward.

I agree that they should consider a JV with a major perhaps similar to Rio’s involvement with SVML where Rio have 19.9% and are heavily involved at the preproduction stage.

When this potential purchase was announced on 31st October there was a 90 day due diligence period. We had an update on the 18th December of which this is an extract:

“ 2025.

§ In the meantime, the Company is advancing, with its lawyers, the production of the definitive agreement documents to align with the expected timing to finalise the due diligence process in January 2025.

Oliver Friesen, CEO of Guardian Metal, commented:

"A huge thanks to all of our legal, environmental and technical advisers who are assisting us with our due diligence process. Things are progressing well and we look forward to providing our next update in January 2025, with the expectation that, subject to final due diligence, this announcement will be in regard to the signing of the definitive agreement to acquire the Project”

Everything looks on track to sign an agreement this month on schedule and todays additional finance is partly in preparation for that purchase.

The rise this morning in the share price of GMET should flow through to POW.

Raising £750000 at no discount to the closing share price on Friday with no warrants is an impressive vote of confidence from an existing Institutional shareholder.

“ The net proceeds of the Placing will be applied to the Company's working capital and is targeted for accelerated exploration and project development activities at Pilot Mountain as well as, subject to the signing of the definitive agreement, at Tempiute.”

Excellent first RNS of the year.

Raising £750000 at no discount to the closing share price on Friday with no warrants is an impressive vote of confidence from an existing Institutional shareholder.

“ The net proceeds of the Placing will be applied to the Company's working capital and is targeted for accelerated exploration and project development activities at Pilot Mountain as well as, subject to the signing of the definitive agreement, at Tempiute.”

Excellent first RNS of the year.

I hope that we can get more than £1.50 per share from Rio because it will be worth many multiples of that when it goes into production. My view is that Rio have a a first mover advantage as due to their close involvement in the day to day running of SVML they know more about this project than anyone else. They don’t need the DFS which will make a lot of information available to the market. Rio isn’t the only large mining company that will want to acquire this Tier 1 Rutile and Graphite company. In my opinion Rio will want to strike early to acquire full control before the Other large miners such as Glencore have the detailed information about the project that Rio already have. So the likelyhood of other bidders can potentially be leveraged to get a higher price this year.

A report on Sky Business is suggesting a major fundraiser by our largest investment Tide:

“ Tide, the business banking services platform, has hired advisers to orchestrate a fresh share sale as it pursues rapid growth in the UK and overseas.

Sky News understands that Tide has been holding talks with investment banks including Morgan Stanley about launching a primary fundraising worth in excess of £50m in the coming months.

The share sale may include both issuing new stock and enabling existing investors to participate by offloading part of their holdings, according to insiders.

It was unclear at what valuation any new funding would be raised.

Tide was founded in 2015 by George Bevis and Errol Damelin, before launching two years later.

It describes itself as the leading business financial platform in the UK, offering business accounts and related banking services.

It now boasts a roughly 11% market share in Britain, along with 400,000 SMEs in India.

Tide, which employs about 2,000 people, also launched in Germany last May.“

Sorry for the double post but the header was wrong.

If Rick Rule is right,which he usually is SVML is at least a 5 bagger on a takeover. So if we say SCP’s shares in SVML are currently worth circa £300000, on a takeover by Rio they would be worth £1.5 million. The sp of SCML in September 2024 was in the low 30p range which would price a Rio bid this year at north of £1.50. This would be a good return but if SVML went it alone, which seems unlikely in view of the current agreements in place with Rio, we would be looking at a 10 bagger in a few years time on production.

I will start with a little background to what I am about to post which appeared on the Metal Tiger ADVFN thread last September. Metal Tiger became Strata Holdings when it moved its listing to Australia. In August 2024:

“ STRATA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS PLC TO ACQUIRE SCP RESOURCE FINANCE

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/srt/strata-investment-holdings-plc/news/acquisition-of-scp-resource-finance-3073880.html

The Company's securities are currently suspended from quotation on ASX and, subject to shareholder approval being obtained, will remain suspended until the Company has re-complied with Chapters 1 and 2 of the ASX Listing Rules and the Acquisition has been completed”. The suspension is due to end this month.

Then on 13/9/24 I noticed the following in an SVML RNS:

“ Sovereign Metals Limited (ASX: SVM, AIM: SVML, OTCQX: SVMLF) (Sovereign or the Company) advises that it has issued 2,326,880 fully paid ordinary shares (Shares) in the capital of the Company, comprising of 1,290,392 Shares issued to Rio Tinto Mining and Exploration Limited (Rio Tinto) and 1,036,488 Shares issued to SCP Resource Finance, as an advisory fee of 3% on the amount of Rio Tinto's option investment in July 2024 (refer to Company announcement on 3 July 2024).

An application will be made for the Shares to be admitted to trading on AIM (Admission) and it is expected that Admission will become effective on or around 19 September 2024.”

Rick Rule is a shareholder in Strata and the largest shareholder in Sprott. Sprott is a large shareholder in SVML.Rick Rule is only interested in 10 bagger probabilities. This Strata aquisition looks very promising and as a holder of Strata and SVML I am feeling confident that both will do well.

Having established that Rick Rule is involved in all 3 companies this takes me to a valuation of SVLP that was contained in a report by Charles Archer in September 2024:

“ “ Third, while SVML retains the operational competence to build the mine and is therefore itself the competitive tension with Rio Tinto, this pilot plant is very clearly the due diligence the major needs to see completed on the deposit before making an outright offer.

While Sovereign may protest that this is all simply to accelerate and improve their own DFS, Rio’s version of a DFS will be in a different class to the junior, and it will want to take the reins before we get to this stage.

My prediction is that Rio Tinto will make a full takeover offer within the next 12 months. I think it's worth finishing with a quote from legendary resource investor Rick Rule, in a recent interview with the company's Chief Commercial Officer:

'What you need to understand, is that ultimately, a deposit this size acquires strategic value. If it sells, it will sell at a premium to net present value because the users understand the critical importance of a deposit of this size and scale.'

The net present value, before any improvements, stands at a little over $1.6 billion”

I will start with a little background to what I am about to post which appeared on the Metal Tiger ADVFN thread last September. Metal Tiger became Strata Holdings when it moved its listing to Australia. In August 2024:

“ STRATA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS PLC TO ACQUIRE SCP RESOURCE FINANCE

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/srt/strata-investment-holdings-plc/news/acquisition-of-scp-resource-finance-3073880.html

The Company's securities are currently suspended from quotation on ASX and, subject to shareholder approval being obtained, will remain suspended until the Company has re-complied with Chapters 1 and 2 of the ASX Listing Rules and the Acquisition has been completed”. The suspension is due to end this month.

Then on 13/9/24 I noticed the following in an SVLP RNS:

“ Sovereign Metals Limited (ASX: SVM, AIM: SVML, OTCQX: SVMLF) (Sovereign or the Company) advises that it has issued 2,326,880 fully paid ordinary shares (Shares) in the capital of the Company, comprising of 1,290,392 Shares issued to Rio Tinto Mining and Exploration Limited (Rio Tinto) and 1,036,488 Shares issued to SCP Resource Finance, as an advisory fee of 3% on the amount of Rio Tinto's option investment in July 2024 (refer to Company announcement on 3 July 2024).

An application will be made for the Shares to be admitted to trading on AIM (Admission) and it is expected that Admission will become effective on or around 19 September 2024.”

Rick Rule is a shareholder in Strata and the largest shareholder in Sprott. Sprott is a large shareholder in SVML.Rick Rule is only interested in 10 bagger probabilities. This Strata aquisition looks very promising and as a holder of Strata and SVML I am feeling confident that both will do well.

Having established that Rick Rule is involved in all 3 companies this takes me to a valuation of SVLP that was contained in a report by Charles Archer in September 2024:

“ “ Third, while SVML retains the operational competence to build the mine and is therefore itself the competitive tension with Rio Tinto, this pilot plant is very clearly the due diligence the major needs to see completed on the deposit before making an outright offer.

While Sovereign may protest that this is all simply to accelerate and improve their own DFS, Rio’s version of a DFS will be in a different class to the junior, and it will want to take the reins before we get to this stage.

My prediction is that Rio Tinto will make a full takeover offer within the next 12 months. I think it's worth finishing with a quote from legendary resource investor Rick Rule, in a recent interview with the company's Chief Commercial Officer:

'What you need to understand, is that ultimately, a deposit this size acquires strategic value. If it sells, it will sell at a premium to net present value because the users understand the critical importance of a deposit of this size and scale.'

The net present value, before any improvements, stands at a little over $1.6 billion”

If Rick Rul

The end of the year is a good time to remind ourselves of the last RNS which was the half year report:

“ REPORTING PERIOD HIGHLIGHTS

· Signing of a gas sales agreement for the sale of Ntorya gas to the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation.

· Award of a 25-year development licence over the Ntorya gas discovery area.

· Commitment from the Government of Tanzania to complete the construction of the Ntorya to Madimba pipeline within six months.

· A significant resource upgrade over the Ntorya discovery and wider area.

· Loss for the period of US$1.35 million (30 June 2023: loss of US$0.96 million).

Charles Santos, Executive Chairman of Aminex commented:

"We are pleased with this year's progress on critical commercial aspects of the Ntorya project - the signing of the Gas Sales Agreement and the issuance of the Development Licence. We are excited about ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited's 3D seismic survey results, which highlighted significant additional resources for the Ntorya discovery and wider area. We look forward to progress on operations through ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited in the coming months. We are impressed with the Tanzanian Government's resolve to expedite the gas pipeline construction from Ntorya to the Madimba gas plant and its clear commitment to use its gas resources to improve the economic conditions of the Tanzanian people."

Another extract:

“ Outlook

This year has been decisive for our Company. We have made significant progress in the Ntorya project, providing shareholders with several catalytic events. More of these value inflection points will come. This year's events have improved the Company's underlying value and demonstrated the Operator's capacity to run numerous critical negotiations and operational workstreams. Of further importance, the Government of Tanzania has indicated its full support for and significance of Ntorya gas production in the shortest time feasible. The net result for Aminex is an essential shift in the narrative of Ntorya, which can now be considered a potentially world-class discovery with a path to positive cash flow by next year - a remarkable turnaround for the Company since 2020.”

2025 should be a pivotal year for AEX imho.

If I was a Calibre shareholder (I have for some time thought I would be one when Calibre acquired CNR!), I would be asking the Calibre board why are they not topping the current MTL offer. It’s an absolute bargain basement offer that Calibre can easily afford to beat and the future profits will be spectacular. Calibre can start making money in months by trucking material from La India to Calibre’s hub and spoke mill that is only at 60% capacity. It will also be Calibre’s fastest route to the 500000 ozs per annum that they have targeted for the group of mines they own. I would be very happy with Calibre shares so they wouldn’t need to spend any cash and their overheads would be very low as they already have a team on the ground just a few miles away. It will not reflect well on Calibre’s Board if they fail to bid as they are literally going to miss out on several hundreds of millions of profit in the coming years.

Very positive news that the due diligence is progressing well:

“ Oliver Friesen, CEO of Guardian Metal, commented:

"A huge thanks to all of our legal, environmental and technical advisers who are assisting us with our due diligence process. Things are progressing well and we look forward to providing our next update in January 2025, with the expectation that, subject to final due diligence, this announcement will be in regard to the signing of the definitive agreement to acquire the Project.

"It is clear, now more than ever, that the U.S. needs a domestic source of mined tungsten and Guardian Metal is positioned to play a part in the reshoring efforts for tungsten with our flagship Pilot Mountain Project. Subject to the completion of due diligence, the acquisition of Tempiute would represent a significant step change as we look to scale our operations in the mining friendly state of Nevada, with the ultimate goal of helping the U.S. significantly reduce its dependence on foreign sources for this key defence and industrial metal."

Today’s RNS is a good way forward in the circumstances we find ourselves in. I have always believed there is considerable value in Satoshipay which is why I have remained invested in BLU for so many years rather like our largest shareholder who will increase his percentage holding in the placing as per todays RNS:

“ Nick Slater, a substantial shareholder in the Company, who currently holds approximately 11.44% of the Company's issued share capital, has subscribed to purchase 1,750,000 ordinary shares as a part of the Subscription. As a substantial shareholder, that being a person who holds over 10% of an issuer's issued share capital, this subscription is a related party transactions pursuant to the AIM Rules for Companies. The Directors of the Company consider, having consulted with its nominated adviser, Cairn Financial Advisers LLP, that the terms of the subscription by Nick Slater is fair and reasonable, insofar as its shareholders are concerned.”

I hope that existing shareholders will be given the opportunity to take up shares at the placing price as after all these years I do not wish to be diluted so close to the end game, which I hope will reward the many years of waiting. Our largest shareholder clearly things it is worthwhile to inject further funds.

The point about exercising the warrants is that the company gets cash so you are helping your investment. If you just buy shares in the market the company gets no direct benefit and wouldn’t have received the funds to buy the water rights.

Oliver is doing a great job and the company looks well positioned to go from strength to strength in 2025 building on a very good 2024.

It seems the MTL presentation has not been well received by some investors as the sp has fallen 4.67% this afternoon to 5.1p.

jim mellon is sitting on a large loss on his holding as am i as i was also in from the start of ffwd. there are a number of other early investors with large holdings that they paid upto 17p for their shares. it is interesting after all this time that mellon has decided to increase his holding by 1.4% to 11.62%. as mellon started this company the usual mellon mates are on the board so he will know exactly what’s going on. seed still has investments in other mellon companies so perhaps he is aware of activity there that could be value enhancing. i imagine the original large shareholders he pulled into this are pretty ****ed of with mellon for abandoning them to aboni and ed who both managed to enrich themselves by making far more money from some seed investments than seed did.

perhaps he will launch a bid to take it private and release for himself the massive discount to nav that persists and locks shareholders in. it looks as if something is in the offing but whether it will benefit anyone other than mellon remains to be seen.

If they are paper certificates that can’t be held in an account such as the SIPP and ISA’s in which I am currently holding my CNR shares that is very unsatisfactory as it will remove funds from my tax free wrappers. I believe they need to come up with an alternative to these CVR such as more MTL shares per Condor share and or more cash.