Member Info for Ibiza28

yes it did but oil price was 100usd a barrel but it was a lousy farm in at 30:70 i believe. So take your pick and roll the dice but yes i think ours will do a very sharp climb

The next news will very possibly be the fact that BoD are taking their options up. If this is very shortly as i suspect it will be it will mean (IMO) there is something big going on in the background otherwise why not wait till Spud is succesful to draw down your options.

No these shares are very unlikely to end up on the market now really just not worth it but maybe a precursor on things to come. It is when the directors start to take up their options that i will get interested. If things moving on other fronts as EU seemed to enigmatically refer to in his talk then it might be sooner rather than later.
IMO buckle up and strap on your helmet we are ready for lift off this option move now i think is a sign that something big is a stirring in the woods.

My estimate which i kept very much to myself except shared with one friend at the beginning of the month was:
5p end of September
10p end of October
20p end of November
25p around time of Spud. After that who knows.

Wishful thinking maybe but anything could happen with this share but then i am always the glass half full kind of guy.

I assume we go it alone for first well and see what we get. Hopefully we get what we expect and then draw the parties around the table again but this time the price would be higher as we would have found the black stuff as opposed just think or hope it is there.

To the oil men out here who have been through this sort of thing before. What is the difference between ~Appraisal and Development. I would guess that we are appraisal until we prove there is oil out there. And i would guess that the deal for a Development farm in is significantly more in our favour once we have established the oil. Therefore i would guess better to drill and establish than go in now. Would you dare to quantify what the difference could be per share between the two.

Well if he has anything to say then i would hope an RNS before hand. Will be interesting to hear him but i will be busy so will watch this BB for opinions. If he is unequivicol and no RNS then there is something else in background. Cannot say a great deal in 10 minutes ( i think it is) or be asked much either but if he is evasive then quite frankly i think there will be running to the hills. I do find this SP funny at the moment. No matter what happens it remains around the same level.

Yes do we know is it 10.00am UK time or 10.00am Carribean Time. I would hazard a guess of an RNS on tuesday morning.

Somebody is expecting something. I see ttwo buys today at 1.5m and 2m shares apiece. Not sure if same person or 2 different people. Out of my league.

I come from normal industry where we buy and sell at normal rates and not on accounting conventions. The £1a barrel is an accounting convention and yes that would absolutely give us 1bn barrels just 25p in the pound but that is not what the oil is worth when its drilled otherwise no one would be drilling for oil at all. And i think if we sell our company we should sell on what the normal rate would be. So assume a net extraction rate of £10 a barrel on a billion barrels that makes a break even on the whole company no just Bahamas £8bn at 3.6-44bn shares a price of between 2-2.50 top end. This assumes not income from Trindad or Surinam which ultimately they would sell of either by way of an MBO or to Predator and that would effectively reduce the price from their point of view. But ulitimately the price will be what the market will bear but these are my thoughts.

I agree i think they are prevented from making any announcements by the nature of the discussions. It either that they are just ignoring us. All we have had is a position paper re-iterating the company is ready and able to drill plus its plans for the future. I always felt that was not aimed at us but at a third party either a buy, a farm in or large scale investors. I think it will come now either middle of next week for week after. Unlikely i think to be anything now. Probably difficult negociating this sort of thing by remote control from Bondii Beach.

Just to reiterate i did not predict this price £2 - 2.50 per share. The question was if i remember what i would be prepared to accept per share (that in my book meant for the company) and my rough calculations which were made on the basis we do not have to sell our family silver for the 1p on the £1 is based largely on the predicted finds at market rates (not the rate in the sea) discounted. I would doubt they will offer it but i think it would be an injusice to flog this company for anything less than £10bn based on what we potentially have. Would we get it would depend on how they view the risk and who is negociating. You would be selling up potentially 2bn barrels in Bahamas probably 120m barrels in or around Trinidad plus a further possible >1bn barrel in Uruguay. Remember the question was per share not what would i expect on Bahamas alone but the whole company at this moment. The price would go up significantly post spud in Bahamas assume positive results and the risk factor would be largely removed.
A bit like me saying that painting you have on the wall i think could be an undiscovered masterpiece worth millions would you be prepared to accept £1000 for it. The answer is do you have to sell or not.

You are absolutely right with no news there is no impetus. The longer it carries on the more investor sentiment is going to waver the one pension fund we have got may well turn tale as well if not careful. But being an optimist once it starts to come it might gush out like an oil well. Live in hope. Hoping the oil price starts going above $40 a barrel again soon.

Could one of the oil men on here possibly reassure us about the current recent collapse in WTI to according to BBC business data is at $36.62. Is this just a blip do you think or something a bit more concerning.

I think you will find that LK came in and took over a company that had been fleeced by previous directors and at that time was not producing very much itself plus problems in Spain so looking at the accounts only tells part of the story. It is only recently that Saphron has really come on line.

Everyone seems to think that BPC went to CERP about the merger. I do not think our BoD could think that far out of the box far too old school for this sort of thing. I think LK went to BPC. He knew that Columbus was skint and unable to do anything except give shares away and seriously dilute an already diluted holding, but he knew he had an asset producing well, not big and sexy but one that could serve a purpose and BPC probably had that purpose.
BPC is a binary asset that needed all its cash for this drill but would probably have started to eat up its cash reserves or some of it during this extended lock down period and hurricane season and the CERP assets with a little bit of help could as i describe "wipe the face of BPC" ie it could cover the day to day running costs of BPC. I would think LK suggested he could get his board to agree provided they were given the incentive to go away by means for a share issue probably instead of a redundancy package. So CERP serves a purpose, at the moment at least, as it will cover the day to day running costs at a time when i do not think there is any other income. Just my thoughts

Just to understand you, are you saying there could up between 8-10 bn barrels of oil out there if 2Bn is just 25%. that makes the potential into a different stratasphere doesn't it.

I used 3.8 billion shares based on 3.6 now more or less plus a best guess of 0.2m for when the directors take up their share options which they surely would. As i say it is back a fag packet estimate.
All my figures would change on spud because the percentage of certainty becomes closer to 100% and the number of Barrels becomes known.

I did do a rough back of fag packet kind fo estimate for my valuation. At the moment it may seem far fetched to some but then i believe our share price is too low for where we are in the timetable.
Our directors seem to be very inactive at the moment just at the moment i am expecting them to pro-active. There has to be a raft of news stacking up and all we have had in 6 weeks i think it is since merger is a position paper that was not aimed at us the shareholder but institutional investors and since then we have heard nothing.
Now either they are sitting around twindling their fingers which i do not believe for a minute or there is something building up in the background which they can let on about much in the same way the merger with CERP took everyone by surprise.
A lot M&A and takeovers happen during these sort of times when everything is tight.

I know no major would be interested Trinidad and Surinam but if you the shares of a company you buy the whole company. I said later they would probably sell off the Trinidad assets back to to LK in a management buy out. but the assets would still have a value.